ANALYSIS: Tadej Pogacar's five biggest rivals at Paris-Roubaix 2026

The cycling season hits a defining moment this Sunday, 12 April, as Paris-Roubaix 2026 takes centre stage. But this is not just another Monument. Tadej Pogacar arrives with a chance to edge closer to a piece of history that only three riders have ever achieved.

Victory in the “Hell of the North” would move the UAE Team Emirates - XRG leader within touching distance of a clean sweep of all five Monuments, placing him alongside Merckx, De Vlaeminck and Van Looy. Having already ticked off Milano-Sanremo and the Tour of Flanders this year, Roubaix represents one of the final barriers in a career that continues to stretch the limits of the sport.

Yet if Pogacar is to take that step, he will have to do it the hard way. The opposition lining up against him is as strong and as specialised as it gets.

Last year, Pogacar made his Paris-Roubaix debut and finished second behind Mathieu van der Poel. The Dutchman returns in 2026 at the head of a stacked field that also includes Wout van Aert, Mads Pedersen, Filippo Ganna, Jasper Philipsen and a host of other contenders. So who stands between Pogacar and cycling history?

If there is one rider Pogacar must solve, it is Mathieu van der Poel. The Alpecin leader has won the last three editions of Paris-Roubaix and, on this terrain, still sets the standard.

Few riders in the modern peloton move across cobbles with the same control and efficiency. Even with Pogacar’s rapid rise across the Classics, Roubaix presents a very different challenge to the climbs of Flanders or the Poggio. The Slovenian also lacks the steep sectors that have previously allowed him to distance rivals. Without the Oude Kwaremont or Paterberg, any winning move will likely have to come through sustained pressure rather than a single decisive attack.

Van der Poel, meanwhile, has unfinished business after falling short at Milano-Sanremo and the Tour of Flanders, adding further motivation to an already formidable record.

Wout van Aert remains one of the most complete riders in the peloton, and Paris-Roubaix is the Monument that continues to elude him.

His recent performances suggest he is building towards another major result. A strong showing at the Tour of Flanders, combined with consistent rides across the cobbled campaign, underlines his condition heading into Roubaix.

For Pogacar, the tactical challenge is clear. Allowing Van Aert to reach the velodrome in contention carries obvious risks. After such a long and punishing race, a sprint against either Van der Poel or Van Aert is a scenario few would willingly choose.

Filippo Ganna arrives as one of the most intriguing names in the field. His ability to deliver in major races has already been established, and his recent form only strengthens his case.

His ride at Milano-Sanremo 2025, where he bridged back to Pogacar and Van der Poel before finishing second, showed he can compete at the very highest level in one-day racing. More recently, his victory at Dwars door Vlaanderen confirmed both his condition and his racing instinct.

Last year’s Roubaix was derailed early by a puncture, but if he can stay clear of trouble and remain well positioned after Arenberg, he has the power to stay with the very best deep into the race.

Mads Pedersen’s spring has been shaped by an early-season setback, but his results since returning point towards steady progression. A sequence of strong finishes across Milano-Sanremo, E3 Saxo Classic, Dwars door Vlaanderen and the Tour of Flanders highlights both his consistency and resilience. However, the lack of uninterrupted racing may still prove decisive against riders operating at full rhythm.

At the Tour of Flanders, he was unable to respond when Pogacar accelerated on the decisive climbs, and that remains the key question heading into Roubaix. Even so, his previous showing here, combined with his current trajectory, suggests he cannot be discounted.

Jasper Philipsen offers a very different kind of danger. His path to victory does not lie in attacking from distance, but in surviving the race and arriving at the velodrome with a chance to sprint.

His recent form indicates he is trending in the right direction, with a victory at Nokere Koerse followed by further strong results in the Belgian races. Crucially, he has already proven his credentials at Paris-Roubaix, finishing second twice in recent editions. If the race comes back together late on, Philipsen becomes one of the most dangerous riders in the field.

In simple terms, the riders most likely to deny Pogacar in Paris-Roubaix are Van der Poel, Van Aert, Ganna, Pedersen and Philipsen. Beyond them, a deep group of outsiders adds further unpredictability.

The question now is whether any of them can stop Pogacar from claiming the only Monument still missing from his palmares, and taking another step towards a place at the very top of cycling history.