“For Tadej to drop riders clinging onto his wheel like a blanket, that's a difficult one” - Sean Kelly still favours Mathieu van der Poel over Tadej Pogacar for Paris-Roubaix

Tadej Pogacar arrives at Paris-Roubaix off the back of another statement performance, but even after dropping Mathieu van der Poel in the Tour of Flanders, not everyone is convinced that form will carry across to the cobbles of northern France. Classics legend Sean Kelly, a two-time Paris-Roubaix winner, sees a very different race unfolding.

Pogacar’s victory in Flanders followed a familiar pattern, with repeated accelerations on the climbs gradually wearing down even the strongest rivals before the decisive move.

Paris-Roubaix removes that dynamic almost entirely. “It is a different animal again,” Kelly said on TNT Sports, turning immediately to the tactical demands of the race. “Tactics is a big thing, how to ride on the cobbles, where to ride, and you don’t have those killer climbs with cobblestones.”

Without those natural selection points, the race becomes far less about sharp, explosive efforts and far more about positioning, resilience and sustained power over flat sectors. “It is not huge power output, it is gradual power over all the cobble sections,” added the nine-time Monument winner, underlining how the nature of the effort changes across the race.

That shift opens the door to a broader group of contenders surviving deep into the finale. “That is where a lot more riders are going to be into the equation,” he continued, before arriving at the key limitation for Pogacar. “For Tadej to get rid of all those riders clinging onto his wheel like a blanket, that is a difficult one.”

The same theme was picked up by TNT Sports colleague Matt Stephens, who pointed to Roubaix as a race that naturally reduces the advantage of a rider who relies on climbing to make the difference.

“You level the playing field a bit, and especially when you throw the likes of Filippo Ganna in the mix,” Stephens said, highlighting how the pool of contenders expands compared to Flanders. “It is going to suit the bigger riders, the heavier riders; it is a bit more about absolute power, and Tadej does not have the same top-end as those bigger riders, that is why he has to go on the climbs.”

In Roubaix, those climbs simply are not there to be used in the same way.

Stephens also pointed back to last year’s edition to illustrate how those differences play out on the road. “Technically as well, as we saw last year Tadej did not exactly throw it away, but he was outclassed in terms of technique and on the completely flat roads he was outgunned, outpowered by Van der Poel.”

Despite Pogacar’s recent dominance, the expectation is that Roubaix will bring the gap back towards equilibrium. “I think they are very close in form, next week is going to be very, very exciting,” Stephens added, before offering a clear contrast to what was seen in Flanders. “I just think it will be a much closer affair.”

That outlook aligns with Kelly’s reading of the race, where the difficulty lies not in making one decisive move, but in being able to repeat it enough times to shed every rival.

Kelly’s conclusion reflects that broader context rather than recent results alone. “I think Mathieu van der Poel,” the Irishman said when asked to name his favourite, leaning on both experience and the specific demands of the race.

Even after Pogacar’s victories in both Milano-Sanremo and the Tour of Flanders, Roubaix presents a different set of problems.

The climbs that allow him to break the race apart are replaced by long, flat sectors where rivals can hold position, absorb pressure and remain in contention. And in that environment, the question is no longer who can attack, but who can endure when everyone is still there.

For Kelly, that remains a scenario that continues to favour Van der Poel.