ANALYSIS | Tadej Pogacar already looks untouchable at the 2026 Tour de France, but Jonas Vingegaard’s final chance is still to come
CyclingMonday, 13 July 2026 at 15:00
The first week of the 2026 Tour de France has produced plenty of conclusions, but one stands above all the others: Tadej Pogacar remains the dominant force in world cycling. The Slovenian has already landed a major blow in the general classification on the Tourmalet, collected stage victories and seen UAE Team Emirates – XRG demonstrate that it wants to control almost everything that happens in the race.
In the latest episode of CiclismoAlDía’s Tour de France podcast, Juan Larra and I analysed the state of the general classification battle, Jonas Vingegaard’s position, Isaac del Toro’s definitive breakthrough, the chances of Remco Evenepoel and Juan Ayuso, and what the second and third weeks could still change.
Juan Larra began by looking back over an almost perfect opening week for UAE. The Emirati team has controlled the race largely at will. Pogacar is already wearing yellow after his Tourmalet exhibition, while Del Toro has confirmed that he is enjoying the finest form of his still-short professional career.
For Vingegaard, the most worrying factor is not simply the gap in the general classification, but the level Pogacar has shown across every kind of terrain.
Isaac del Toro is already among the best in the world
One of the biggest protagonists of the opening week has undoubtedly been Isaac del Toro. Most expected him to be strong after his outstanding Criterium du Dauphine, but few could have anticipated him beginning the Tour with such authority.
It is not only the stage victory or Pogacar subsequently gifting him the win. What is truly striking is that Del Toro is already capable of creating gaps over riders such as Vingegaard and Remco Evenepoel in explosive efforts, while also staying with the best when the race becomes more demanding.
Right now, he gives the impression that he has definitively made the step into world cycling’s elite.
Vingegaard still has arguments in his favour
Although Pogacar is clearly a level above, Vingegaard has not conveyed a sense of total defeat. He lost time on the Tourmalet, but a large part of that difference came after the climb.
The Dane reached the summit relatively close to Pogacar, before the Slovenian extended his advantage decisively on the descent and the long section which followed.
That is why several high-mountain stages with consecutive climbs may still be needed before Vingegaard’s true level can be judged.
Vingegaard trails Pogacar by 2:42 at the first rest day
The Tourmalet does not have to be decisive
Juan also introduced an important qualification. Vingegaard arrived at the Tour after a highly demanding Giro d’Italia and with a different preparation to Pogacar or Del Toro, who had raced much more recently.
That may explain why he is still lacking a little competitive rhythm. Visma must nevertheless keep the Tour alive until the third week. Should Pogacar continue increasing his advantage on every important stage, it will become virtually impossible to change the course of the race.
The long Alpine stages now appear to offer Vingegaard his clearest remaining route back into the yellow-jersey fight.
Remco Evenepoel and Lipowitz keep the podium battle open
Beyond the fight for yellow, the podium battle is also proving extremely interesting. Remco Evenepoel remains very close to Del Toro, while Florian Lipowitz is displaying enormous consistency.
Juan believes Lipowitz inspires more confidence than several of his rivals because he almost never has a bad day in the high mountains, whereas Evenepoel remains more unpredictable depending on the route. The time trial could still significantly alter that contest.
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to compete in the ranking.
Juan Ayuso still has a chance
Another major name discussed was Juan Ayuso. The Spaniard has benefited somewhat from the condition of several of his direct rivals.
Paul Seixas, for example, is not showing the spectacular level seen during Itzulia Basque Country, which may make it easier for Ayuso to remain fully involved in the podium fight. Should he reach the time trial in a strong position, it could become one of the most important days of his entire Tour.
There is still an enormous amount of the Tour remaining
The picture after the opening week is clear. Pogacar is the overwhelming favourite to win another Tour de France, Del Toro has confirmed that he now belongs among the world’s elite, and Vingegaard still needs to prove on the major Alpine stages that he can turn the race around.
There are still five major mountain stages, a decisive time trial and a considerable amount of racing remaining.
Pogacar already appears to have one hand on yellow, but Vingegaard’s best terrain is still to come. Whether that becomes a genuine path back into contention or merely the final test of Pogacar’s supremacy will shape the rest of the Tour.
Jorge BorregueroWriter
Jorge Borreguero is a journalist with a degree from the Complutense University of Madrid and has been a writer for Cyclinguptodate and Ciclismoaldia since early 2023. In this role, he has played a key part in the evolution of the website, particularly as a specialist covering Movistar Team. He regularly writes race reports, analytical pieces, and in-depth features about the team, and has conducted exclusive interviews and attended multiple team presentations, providing readers with firsthand insights into one of the leading professional cycling squads.
Throughout his career, Jorge has maintained a strong focus on sports journalism, gaining experience across a variety of disciplines, including basketball and football. However, his current work is almost entirely dedicated to cycling, contributing extensively to Ciclismoaldia and its sister website Cyclinguptodate. For these platforms, he combines thorough research with detailed reporting to deliver high-quality content, ranging from race previews and results to expert analysis of teams and riders.
Jorge’s reporting is marked by accuracy, depth, and a commitment to providing readers with reliable and authoritative information. His direct engagement with teams, athletes, and events ensures that his coverage reflects firsthand knowledge and professional insight. Through his work, he has established himself as a trusted voice in professional cycling journalism, bridging the gap between the sport and its global audience while maintaining rigorous editorial standards.
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- Yes, sure, Pog had been injured. But Jonas said he would win by minutes and did it. in two days, as everyone remembers. But he hasn't yet won races all year round,, so people who want to bring up this topic tend to talk about Pog.Hills3313-07-2026
- I bet Seixas has extra cold AC.mrvco13-07-2026
- Now it's clear why Simon left.MajorPayne13-07-2026
- Wondering if there is any other teams at that hotel. Or if another team has anything to do with the AC. Don't laugh as stuff this paying fans to throw thumbtacks on the roan or crowd some riders on climbing stages have been talked about for yearsmd197513-07-2026
- First thing: That's not true. In 2023 Pogi completely blew up. Any cyclist that day would have beaten him. He said himself: 'I'm gone. I'm dead.' Vingegaard never blew up, but he loses 80% of the time when he goes mano a mano against Pogi. Second thing: We have "two" Pogi's... one from 2019-2023... and the second from 2024-on. He will not blow up again. OK, maybe Pogi will lose a stage against Jonas here and there, but he will win 80% of them. Ad acta!!!mus-musculuspeedypogigonzales13-07-2026
- To be honest, this is at least where I expected Pogi to be relative to the field, based on the parcours of the tour so far. I was actually surprised that he didn't take more time in Stages 2 and 4. If Jonas was ever going to challenge Pogi in GC, it was going to be late in week 3. His only hope has been that somehow he's more durable, that he recovers from the heat better, and that he can out-diesel Pogi in stages 19 and 20. I think it's unlikely, but I do think he still has a small chance.DAS13-07-2026
- Some chose to live/watch cycling with a 'glass half empty' mindset -- must be tiring.b3tlla13-07-2026
- Oh Lance - why are you still here? Why do you cling to this foolish notion? And CUTD and Peacock, why on earth give this a hole a platform?Crashjames13-07-2026
- Utterly hilarious... you never know what to expect from Red Bull
Rafionain-Glas13-07-2026 - Thanks, so basically he’d be battling with others for 4thJumpyjohn13-07-2026
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