ANALYSIS: Isaac del Toro's five biggest rivals at Tirreno-Adriatico 2026

On 9 March, just one day after Paris-Nice concludes, Tirreno-Adriatico 2026 gets underway. It is always one of the most fascinating weeks of the cycling season, with two of the sport’s most important WorldTour stage races running at the same time. While Jonas Vingegaard will headline the battle at Paris-Nice, in Italy, the spotlight firmly falls on Isaac del Toro.

The Mexican star continues to rise at remarkable speed and is increasingly viewed as one of the most exciting talents in the peloton. At the 2026 UAE Tour, he underlined his growing status by winning both summit finishes on his way to securing the overall title.

Tirreno-Adriatico will therefore mark his second opportunity to lead UAE Team Emirates - XRG in a multi-stage WorldTour race. The objective remains clear: to leave Italy with another overall victory. Achieving that, however, will require overcoming a stacked field of rivals across a demanding week of racing.

Del Toro will face competition from some of the biggest names in the peloton, including Primoz Roglic, Matteo Jorgenson, Antonio Tiberi, Giulio Pellizzari, Richard Carapaz, Ben Healy, Jai Hindley, Julian Alaphilippe, Egan Bernal and Thymen Arensman, among others. But which riders represent the five biggest threats?

The most obvious challenger is Primoz Roglic. After several months away from competition, the four-time Vuelta a Espana champion returns to racing at Tirreno-Adriatico.

The Slovenian begins what promises to be an important season, with his long-term goal of breaking the record for Vuelta victories by surpassing Roberto Heras. Before thinking about that target, however, Roglic will want to prove that he remains capable of winning week-long stage races at the WorldTour level.

His strengths could prove decisive here. Roglic is one of the strongest time trialists in the peloton and could gain valuable time in the opening individual time trial, particularly against Del Toro, who is still developing in flat time trials.

This year’s route is also unlikely to feature major high mountain stages, but it does include several explosive uphill finishes. In those short, punchy efforts, Roglic is among the very best in the world. With small time gaps expected, time bonuses at stage finishes could become a crucial factor in deciding the general classification.

Matteo Jorgenson also stands out as a major contender. Despite winning the last two editions of Paris-Nice, the American has chosen to race Tirreno-Adriatico this year instead.

The Visma Lease a Bike rider has started the season in encouraging form, finishing second at the Faun-Ardeche Classic and fourth at the Drome Classic, although he is still chasing his first victory of the campaign.

One key factor could be the strength of his team. Wout van Aert is also expected to line up, and the Belgian is widely regarded as one of the most valuable domestiques in the peloton. Combined with Jorgenson’s own strength on rolling and medium mountain terrain, Visma could prove a powerful force throughout the week.

Antonio Tiberi takes the third spot on the list and has already gone head-to-head with Del Toro earlier this season. The Italian was the rider who pushed the Mexican hardest at the UAE Tour, ultimately finishing second overall.

Tiberi wore the leader’s jersey until the final climb of Jebel Hafeet thanks to his impressive victory at Jebel Mobrah, and as a home rider, he will carry significant Italian hopes for overall victory at Tirreno-Adriatico.

His form throughout the early part of the season has also been extremely consistent. Alongside his UAE Tour result, he finished third at the Classica Camp de Morvedre, fourth overall at the Volta a la Comunitat Valenciana and third at Trofeo Laigueglia. Aside from Valencia, he has reached the podium in every race he has contested so far.

Red Bull - BORA - hansgrohe will also bring serious depth to the race. Alongside Roglic, the team is expected to line up with both Giulio Pellizzari and Jai Hindley.

While both riders may initially support Roglic, Pellizzari in particular is beginning to emerge as a major talent. Last season, he finished sixth in both the Giro d'Italia and the Vuelta a España, signalling his growing potential in stage racing.

He also impressed earlier this season at the Volta a la Comunitat Valenciana, finishing third overall ahead of Tiberi. For Del Toro and UAE Team Emirates XRG, controlling the tactical options of Red Bull could become one of the key challenges of the week.

Completing the list is Richard Carapaz. The Ecuadorian already clashed with Del Toro during the 2025 Giro d'Italia, where the pair were involved in a fierce battle for the overall classification before Simon Yates ultimately prevailed on the Colle delle Finestre.

At Tirreno-Adriatico, Carapaz may benefit from the presence of Ben Healy in the EF Education-EasyPost lineup. The team could adopt a dual leadership approach similar to that of Red Bull - BORA - hansgrohe with Roglic and Pellizzari.

Carapaz has raced only once so far in 2026, finishing 29th at Trofeo Laigueglia. However, the rivalry that developed between him and Del Toro at last year’s Giro means he remains a rider to watch closely.

One of the most intriguing aspects of this year’s Tirreno-Adriatico is that, beyond the general classification battle, several other high-profile riders will also be present with different objectives.

Mathieu van der Poel, Jonathan Milan, Paul Magnier, Julian Alaphilippe, Arnaud de Lie, Tobias Lund Andresen and Filippo Ganna are all expected to play key roles across the week.

All of which sets up a fascinating question: can Isaac del Toro deliver a second consecutive WorldTour overall victory with UAE Team Emirates XRG?