ANALYSIS | 3 keys aspects for Jonas Vingegaard not to miss on 2025 La Vuelta win

Jonas Vingegaard will take to the start line of the 2025 Vuelta a España as the top favorite to win the final general classification. With the absence of Tadej Pogacar, the 28-year-old Dane is by far the best climber. However, in the world of cycling and sport in general, we can never take anything for granted. In the 2023 edition, the same thing happened and he ended up giving it away on merit to his teammate Sepp Kuss.

It will be Vingegaard's third time racing the Vuelta a España. It was his first Grand Tour in 2020, when he was still a promising youngster and finished 46th whilst supporting Primoz Roglic to overall victory. Since then, he has never been outside the top two in any of the three-week races he has contested. Winner of the Tour de France in 2022 and 2023; second in 2021, 2024 and 2025 and same result in La Vuelta in 2023, as we discussed above.

As we have also implied, he comes from finishing second in the Tour. He arrived, as in every edition in recent years, as one of the two big favorites along with Tadej Pogacar, but was beaten by the Slovenian in the final general classification by 4 minutes and 24 seconds. Despite this, he also took 6:36 to the third-placed Florian Lipowitz, which indicates that he has a margin with respect to the rest of the competition in the Grand Tours.

He has absolutely everything in his favor for the Vuelta a España 2025, but there will be factors to take into account that we will list below. In the Tour, he went from strength to strength and was better in the second half of the race. In only two stages, the first flat time-trial in Caen and the first true high mountain day in the Pyrenees, in Hautacam, he lost more than three and a half minutes to the World Champion, which was significant in the final gap. But Tadej Pogacar will not be in La Vuelta.

The first area where he will have to be at his best is in the time trial. In the Critérium du Dauphiné he was impressive, taking 28 seconds from Tadej Pogacar and finishing second only behind Remco Evenepoel, the best rider in the world in the specialty. However, in the Tour, he gave a bit of a mixed bag. In stage 5 he was 13th, 1:22 behind Evenepoel and 1:05 behind Pogacar. He fared much better in the Peyragudes mountain time trial. It was the day after Hautacam and he had to make up for it. He finished 37 seconds behind Pogacar and took a big bite out of the rest of the competitors.

The Vuelta will have two time trials in this 2025 edition. The first will be a team time trial, also on the fifth day of competition, with 20 kilometers in Figueres. The course will be fairly flat throughout the day, with a small ramp at the end. The second will be in Valladolid, in the 18th stage. It will be individual, with 26 kilometers and a climb at the start. It will also be the penultimate opportunity to make a difference in the final general classification, before the Bola del Mundo stage and the finish in Madrid.

Tour de France 2025 has been intense and exhausting, both physically and mentally. Speed records have been broken and tension has been present at all times, as it always is in the biggest race in the world. All of that may have consequences for Vingegaard ahead of the Vuelta a España. It's not the first time he's doubled, as in 2023 he did the same, so he knows what it's like.

However, that year he came from conquering the yellow jersey, so perhaps it was easier to overcome it all. Also, if he hadn't, he probably wouldn't have left the red jersey to Sepp Kuss. This year, having been so far back in the Tour, it may not affect him too much.

In the Tour de France he quickly found himself far behind in the general classification, so he had to go on the attack and ended up tiring more than necessary. The advantage of leading a three-week race is that you can manage and measure your efforts. It doesn't mean it's easy, because you also have the responsibility of not letting the race slip away from you, but Vingegaard and Team Visma | Lease a Bike are used to it and they won't mind having the responsibility of leading the peloton on their shoulders.

To do so, it would be good to get into the lead quickly. The first opportunity could come directly on stage 2, finishing in Port Limone. Nor is it necessary to dress him for the entire three weeks, but after the time trial and the first real high mountain stage, which will be just the next day, he should stay there until Madrid.