"Where new stars are born..." - Vincenzo Nibali on how Jonas Vingegaard may want to win the iro d'Italia, but also on the possible surprises

Vincenzo Nibali has won the Giro d'Italia on two occasions, and from his many participations he has taken plenty conclusions. He is part of the current direction of the Corsa Rosa but has shared his thoughts on the main favourite Jonas Vingegaard, as well as casting a warning about a race that often throws big surprises and obstacles in the way of the riders.

“On paper, Jonas Vingegaard is the favourite. But the Giro always brings surprises, you can never take anything for granted," Nibali said in words to Gazzetta dello Sport. With the withdrawals of João Almeida, Richard Carapaz and Mikel Landa; the field of climbers has become smaller and only Giulio Pellizzari has been touted to potentially be able to rival the Dane throughout the race.

Vingegaard has chosen to race the Giro this year after conquering the Vuelta a España last summer, meaning he has the opportunity to win all three Grand Tours - before Tadej Pogacar, notably. For the 'Shark of Messina', the Dane's best chance at winning the Giro is to build the difference from early on.

“I think Vingegaard will try to make a difference early, especially on the first summit finishes. After that, it will depend on how much time he gains. He might then focus on controlling the race.” The summit finish to Blockhaus in the first week means the GC contenders can't afford to arrive to the race undercooked, and Vingegaard could jump into the pink jersey then.

The key stages of the race will come later on, but Nibali argues that Visma should focus on controlling the race instead of having the pressure to attack it. "If the gap is not big enough, the race can become very difficult to manage. Without control, breakaways can go, and the race can become unpredictable day after day.”

In 2016, Nibali had to overcome what looked to be an unmovable obstacle in Steven Kruijswijk, a Grand Tour specialist - who still races for Visma to this day - who had previous good results in three-week races but never one like he was delivering. Whilst Nibali won that edition on his own merit, he also benefited from the Dutchman's crash on stage 19.

Hence, he knows that even an experienced Grand Tour specialist like Jonas Vingegaard may have new faces challenging him for the overall classification. “It is also where new stars are born. We have seen it many times in recent years. Even when there is a clear leader going in, the race can change completely.”

Giulio Pellizzari, Italy's greatest talent in the mountains, may just be the Dane's big rival. After finishing second at Tirreno-Adriatico and winning the Tour of the Alps, he's coming into the race with great confidence; whilst last year he showed every positive sign of being a top climber in the making.

“He has real talent. He is improving step by step. This year, I think his goal can be a top three," Nibali adds. “Last year, you could see the fatigue in the final week. At the Giro, the last week is crucial. That is where the race really becomes decisive. At the Giro, nothing is ever decided until the very end.”