“What will it mean for Jonas Vingegaard? Not that much” – Danish expert says Giro favourite was already set to dominate before Almeida, Landa and Carapaz withdrawals

The late withdrawals of several headline contenders have reshaped the narrative around the 2026 Giro d’Italia, but not, according to one Danish voice, the identity of its likely winner.

Jesper Worre believes that while the absences of Joao Almeida, Mikel Landa and the growing uncertainty around Richard Carapaz remove depth from the general classification battle, they do little to change the overarching picture at the top. “It’s a shame, because these are big names missing the Giro d’Italia. Almeida had effectively been identified as Vingegaard’s biggest rival, but not if he isn’t at his best,” Worre said in analysis with Eurosport.dk.

Despite that acknowledgement, Worre’s central view is clear. The withdrawals do not materially alter expectations around Jonas Vingegaard heading into the race. “And what will it mean for Vingegaard’s Giro d’Italia? Not that much, because Visma will stay focused on their goal of him winning the race and becoming the eighth rider in history to win all three Grand Tours.”

Rather than reframing the race, the developments simply reinforce an existing hierarchy. The expectation from within Team Visma | Lease a Bike remains unchanged, with the Danish leader targeting overall victory and a place among the small group of riders to have completed the Grand Tour set.

Worre was also keen to stress that, despite the loss of several big names, the Giro is far from lacking in quality. “When you look at the names still starting the race, it is still a very, very strong field that Vingegaard has to beat. There is a Giulio Pellizzari who looks good, and an Egan Bernal coming from the Tour of the Alps and racing strongly at Liège-Bastogne-Liège," he explains. “But Vingegaard is a huge favourite. There’s no getting around that.”

That balance is important. The race may have lost some of its most obvious challengers, but it has not been reduced to a formality. Instead, it presents a scenario where the favourite remains clear, yet the responsibility to control and deliver across three weeks is undiminished.

Worre also looked beyond the question of whether Vingegaard can win, instead turning to how he might win. In doing so, he referenced the dominant template set by Tadej Pogacar in 2024.

“I would love to see Vingegaard do what Pogacar did two years ago," Worre says. "That he wins his stages and stays in front in the general classification. If he were to win by ten minutes and take multiple stages along the way, I would think that was absolutely fantastic.”

It is an ambitious benchmark, but one that reflects the level at which Vingegaard is now judged. Success alone is not the only measure; the manner of that success is also under scrutiny.

While the conversation around the Giro has shifted in recent days, Worre’s perspective suggests that the pressure on Vingegaard has not diminished with it. If anything, it has become more focused.

With fewer established rivals lining up against him, the expectation is not simply to win, but to confirm the status he already holds. The withdrawals of Almeida, Landa and the uncertainty around Carapaz may have altered the depth of the field, but they have not altered the central question.

According to Worre’s assessment, that question had already been answered before those developments took place.