That would be a very different Vuelta from the one Roglic had planned. His 2026 season was deliberately built around returning to Spain and pursuing a fifth overall victory, which would move him clear of Roberto Heras as the most successful rider in the history of the race.
Roglic's carefully planned Vuelta build-up unravelled after training crash
Roglic deliberately stayed away from both the Giro d'Italia and Tour de France this year, placing the Vuelta at the centre of a comparatively light programme.
He opened his season with fifth overall at Tirreno-Adriatico and later finished on the podium at Milano-Torino, while further stage-race appearances came at the Itzulia Basque Country, Tour de Romandie and Tour de Suisse. His only victory of the campaign so far arrived at the Slovenian national time trial championships at the end of June.
The plan was then for the Clasica San Sebastian and Vuelta a Burgos to provide his final competitive preparation before Spain. Both disappeared from the schedule after Roglic was hit by a driver while training.
Roglic subsequently shared an image showing significant bruising to the back of his leg and acknowledged that the accident was "not the best scenario", although he initially continued to speak of recovering in time for the Vuelta. Exactly when the collision happened and the full extent of the injuries have not been publicly detailed.
By the weekend, Gazzetta journalist Ciro Scognamiglio was reporting that sources put Roglic's chances of starting at only "fifty-fifty". Monday's reports now point towards Roglic racing after all, but with the competitive preparation he had planned in San Sebastian and Burgos completely removed. If Gazzetta's suggested scenario plays out, the Vuelta itself would become part of his route back towards race condition.
Roglic had been hoping to go for a record 5th Vuelta a Espana title
Record fifth Vuelta remains the backdrop to Roglic's return
The 36-year-old has won the Vuelta four times, taking his first Grand Tour overall victory there in 2019 before successfully defending the title in 2020 and 2021.
After crashing out while sitting second overall in 2022 and finishing third behind Sepp Kuss and Jonas Vingegaard in 2023, Roglic returned to the top step in 2024. That fourth victory drew him level with Roberto Heras for the most overall wins in the history of the race. A fifth would move Roglic clear of the Spaniard as the sole record holder.
That record attempt sat at the heart of his decision to make the Vuelta his only Grand Tour of 2026, even before Tadej Pogacar's subsequent confirmation added another major obstacle to his plans.
Pogacar will return to the Vuelta for the first time since his Grand Tour debut in 2019, when the then 20-year-old finished third behind Roglic and Alejandro Valverde while winning three stages.
Seven years later, Pogacar arrives as a five-time Tour de France winner, while Roglic was already facing a formidable task in the fight for red before the training crash complicated his own preparation.
Roglic has recovered from disrupted Vuelta build-ups before
Roglic has, however, won the Vuelta after disrupted summers before. His 2021 victory followed the injuries that ended his Tour de France, while he again arrived in Spain after crashing out of the Tour when he won his fourth Vuelta in 2024. His unsuccessful 2022 attempt also followed another difficult Tour.
The difference in 2026 is the complete absence of his planned final race block. Roglic has not competed since the Slovenian championships at the end of June and will reach August 22 without either of the two races intended to bridge the gap into the Vuelta.
Four victories from six Vuelta appearances mean the record fifth title will inevitably remain part of the conversation if Roglic takes the start. For now, though, the latest reports suggest his more immediate task may simply be to find his race condition again before deciding what the final two weeks of the Vuelta can offer.