Primoz Roglic's bid for historic fifth Vuelta thrown into serious doubt as chances of starting down to '50-50'
CyclingSunday, 09 August 2026 at 11:00
Primoz Roglic's bid to become the first five-time winner of the Vuelta a Espana has been plunged into serious doubt, with the Slovenian now reportedly facing only a 50-50 chance of making the start following his recent training collision.
Gazzetta dello Sport journalist Ciro Scognamiglio reported on Saturday night that sources had put Roglic's current chances of starting the Vuelta at "fifty-fifty", a significant change in outlook less than two weeks before the race begins.
Roglic was hit by a car while training towards the end of July and subsequently withdrew from both the Clasica San Sebastian and Vuelta a Burgos. He initially remained focused on recovering in time for Spain, describing the accident as "not the best scenario" while keeping the Vuelta firmly in his plans.
The latest report places far greater uncertainty over an objective around which Roglic has structured virtually his entire 2026 campaign.
Roglic's 2026 season has centred on the Vuelta
Roglic chose not to return to either the Giro d'Italia or Tour de France this season, instead prioritising another attempt at the race he has already won four times.
His programme has consequently been lighter than in many previous seasons. Roglic opened with fifth overall at Tirreno-Adriatico and followed that with third at Milano-Torino, while later stage-race appearances included the Itzulia Basque Country, Tour de Romandie and Tour de Suisse. His only victory of 2026 so far came in the Slovenian national time trial championships at the end of June.
San Sebastian and Burgos were due to provide his final competitive preparation before the Vuelta. The training collision removed both from his programme and means Roglic has now gone more than a month without racing as August 22 approaches.
It comes during the final months of his spell with Red Bull – BORA – hansgrohe. Team manager Ralph Denk has already confirmed that Roglic will leave when his contract expires at the end of 2026, although the 36-year-old intends to continue his career next season.
The Vuelta could therefore be his final Grand Tour with the team he joined ahead of the 2024 season.
Primoz Roglic celebrates winning the 2024 Vuelta a Espana
A fifth Vuelta would put Roglic alone in history
Roglic has built one of the outstanding records in Vuelta history since making his debut in 2019. He won at the first attempt, successfully defended the red jersey in both 2020 and 2021 and then returned to the top step again in 2024. That fourth overall victory moved him level with Roberto Heras for the most Vuelta wins in history.
His two other appearances hardly weaken that record. Roglic was second overall when a crash ended his 2022 race and completed an all-Jumbo-Visma podium behind Sepp Kuss and Jonas Vingegaard in 2023.
Victory in 2026 would therefore take him clear of Heras with five titles.
It would also bring Roglic back into direct Grand Tour competition with Tadej Pogacar at the race where their stories first crossed at this level. Roglic won the 2019 Vuelta ahead of Alejandro Valverde, while the then 20-year-old Pogacar finished third and won three stages on his Grand Tour debut.
Pogacar is returning to the Vuelta in 2026 for the first time since that breakthrough appearance, now as a five-time Tour de France winner and the dominant Grand Tour rider of the current era.
Roglic, meanwhile, had deliberately avoided both the Giro and Tour in order to arrive in Spain with a different preparation. Instead, his final weeks have been disrupted by another accident and the two races designed to sharpen his form have disappeared from the schedule.
Six Vuelta appearances have brought Roglic four overall victories, 15 stage wins, one third place and only one failure to reach Madrid. Whether a seventh appearance will be added to that record on August 22 is now genuinely uncertain, with the race around which Roglic built his 2026 season suddenly no longer guaranteed to feature him at all.
Kieran WoodDeputy Editor-in-Chief
Kieran Wood is a sports journalist based in Wales and has been active in journalism since 2022. He regularly contributes to DartsNews.com and CyclingUpToDate.com, where he covers professional cycling and darts. In cycling, his work includes liveblogs from major races, including the Tour de France, the Giro d’Italia, and La Vuelta a España, alongside race reports and analysis. He has also conducted interviews with professional riders.
His reporting spans the full racing calendar, from one-day classics to stage races, with a focus on accurate, real-time coverage and clear contextual analysis. For statistics, results, and historical context, he regularly uses resources such as ProCyclingStats. To support reporting on rider activity and training context where relevant, he also references Strava.
In his work, Kieran places strong emphasis on careful sourcing, editorial accuracy, and updating articles as new, verified information becomes available.
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