PREVIEW | UAE Tour 2024 stage 5 - Hattrick for Tim Merlier?

Friday, 23 February 2024 at 09:01

Preview. Stage 5 of the UAE Tour will most likely be another day for a bunch sprint to decide the outcome. Tim Merlier has won both bunch sprints so far, can he possibly score a hattrick?

Starting from Al Aqah to reach Umm Al Quwain, the stage crosses the desert areas on the edge of the Hajar Mountains. Here it covers several stretches of highway until reaching Umm Al Quwain for the final sprint. The entire route is on wide, straight, well-paved roads through the desert.

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STAGE 5, AL AQAH-UMM AL QUWAIN, 182 KM

The sprint is just about as least technical as one could imagine. No turns, no roundabouts, no gradients in the road... Sprinter's paradise, it will all be about timing on this day, a simple sprint that will demand sharp tactics from all leadouts.

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The Weather

Map UAE Tour 2024 stage 5

Western wind once again. In a transition day that crosses the desert it could be a dangerous day, but the riders overall travel in western direction. Not to say echelons cannot happen, the area between 110 and 65 kilometers to go certainly can be very tense, but it's not too likely. A non-exposed bunch sprint should happen, not too different than today.

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The Favourites

Tim Merlier - Winner of both bunch sprints so far in the race, it's safe to say that he will once again be a man to consider for victory. I expect chaos once again, however it seems that admits that, the Belgian pulls through quite efficiently. Don't be surprised to see him win again.

Arvid de Kleijn - Favourite number two realistically speaking is Arvid de Kleijn. He is in the exact same position as Merlier, only in the wheel of the Quick-Step rider and not ahead. Following wheels and instinct instead of leadout is key in this race and he's nailed both finales. He did not have the speed to beat Merlier so far, but he definitely has shown enough to beat the rest of the peloton.

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The rest of the peloton will have to try and implement the same strategy honestly, leadouts simply do not take the riders to the line here. For some reason we've not seen Sam Welsford anywhere near the front so far, we saw Alpecin ride very well today but then not have someone delivering Kaden Groves who was not even in the Top10 today; the likes of Mark Cavendish, Dylan Groenewegen, Elia Viviani and Pascal Ackermann for example so far are nowhere to be seen as well.

Instead we've had other figures who adapted perfectly to this type of sprinting come up. Jakub Mareczko for example third and fourth in the sprints is proving he's still got it; the likes of Stanislaw Aniolkowski and Jarno Van De Paar are also seemingly punching above their weight. Olav Kooij and Fabio Jakobsen seem to be in the mix relatively well, but need all the pieces of the puzzle to fit together if they want to bring a win. Juan Sebastián Molano, Fernando Gaviria, Phil Bauhaus, Sam Bennett, Simone Consonni and Arne Marit are all fast names to also consider in this finale.

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Prediction UAE Tour 2024 stage 5:

*** Tim Merlier, Arvid de Kleijn
** Olav Kooij, Fabio Jakobsen, Jakub Mareczko
* Dylan Groenewegen, Kaden Groves, Sam Welsford, Phil Bauhaus, Juan Sebastián Molano, Fernando Gaviria, Stanislaw Aniolkowski, Simone Consonni

Pick: Tim Merlier

Preview written by Rúben Silva.

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