PREVIEW | Tour de France 2024 stage 20 - Tadej Pogacar's celebration ride through the mountains

Tadej Pogacar has virtually sealed his victory in the Tour de France. At this point there will be no hope left for rivals to win the Grand Boucle but we still have one interesting final mountain showdown taking place from Nice to the tough Col de la Couillole. We preview stage 20.

Stage 20 will be the final day in the mountains for the Grand Boucle, short in distance however it'll be in the Alpes Maritimes that it'll take place, a rough day with four categorized climbs including the Col de Braus, Col de Turini, Col de la Colmiane and the Col de la Couillole - all frequent appearances as the queen stages at Paris-Nice.

All constant climbs with short distances. Ordinarily not a day to make massive differences, but it's stage 20 of the Tour and the day after a beastly mountain stage so more can happen here than what is usually the case. The riders start off in Nice and after a few kilometers, tackle their first big challenge: the Col de Braus. 10.2 kilometers at 6.3%, it ends with 109 kilometers to go. The breakaway of the day should be formed here.

Next up the hardest climb of the day in my opinion, the longest of the day as well which is the Col de Turini. 20.8 kilometers at 5.7%, it's final 12 kilometers average 7% and the summit is at 1600 meters of altitude. The climb ends with 73.5 kilometers to go but no big moves are expected here however.

Next up the Col de la Colmaine which is 7.5 kilometers at 6.9%. Nothing too special about it, but it will add to the difficulty of the day and not provide the riders with restbite ahead of the final ascent. This one ends with 37.5 kilometers to go.

Finally, the Col de la Couillole. The last true mountain of this year's Tour and also the final summit finish of the race. The climb is 15.8 kilometers at 7.3% which is quite hard. It's very constant however, but the gradients will be enough for serious attacks to be dealt.

The Weather

A hot day and some wind from the south. It will mean a tailwind in the first two climbs of the day whilst later in the day we should have mostly a crosswind in the final ascent to the Col de la Couillole.

The Favourites

Tadej Pogacar - There's really nothing left to say. He is the strongest uphill, head and shoulders, and unless something weird happens he will not be put under any difficulties by his rivals. It is only a matter of UAE letting the breakaway fight for victory or not, but honestly despite their success, UAE might as well just pace throughout the day and go on to win once again.

Jonas Vingegaard & Remco Evenepoel - Regarding the stage win, it won't happen unless there is a very unusual day. Pogacar will keep an eye on them, will be able to match any attack and should also be comfortably able to outsprint them. These two now fight for second and third but I don't expect it to change, and I don't expect gaps between the both of them either at the summit finish.

GC Fight - Some questions have been answered; as Carlos Rodríguez will not fight for the fourth place, whilst Felix Gall and Steff Cras can be outcast from a Top10. João Almeida and Mikel Landa still have a battle for fourth place, the climbs suit the Portuguese better but it'll be interesting to see if Quick-Step will try a different strategy. Adam Yates should comfortably keep his seventh place; Whilst Santiago Buitrago could jump into the Top10 if Derek Gee, Matteo Jorgenson or Giulio Ciccone (as happened today) struggle.

Breakaway - So the question that lies is whether UAE will let the breakaway go for the win. It actually looked like it'd work today with extremely good climbers in front and a healthy gap at the base of the climb, but Pogacar blew everyone out of the gates. Means that at the base of Couillole it will be necessary to have around four minutes at the base to be able to realistically ambition the victory if he has the same legs as today.

The men to keep under are pretty much the ones that were in front today with Matteo Jorgenson having very good climbs for his characteristics, whilst both Simon Yates and Richard Carapaz were obvious choices to be fighting for a breakaway win. Fatigue may start to be felt on the latter two after so many breakaway attempts however. Perhaps a few riders have been a bit more hidden could have better legs on the day.

Tobias Johannessen who crashed on stage 18 and Jai Hindley perhaps will not be at their idea level... But we've got Wilco Kelderman also as a very dangerous figure for Visma; Enric Mas, Egan Bernal, Laurens de Plus, Guillaume Martin, Romain Bardet, Louis Meintjes, Oscar Onley, Jan Hirt, Carlos Verona and Bob Jungels as outsiders for the day.

Prediction Tour de France 2024 stage 20:

*** Tadej Pogacar
** Simon Yates, Enric Mas, Laurens de Plus, Richard Carapaz
* Jonas Vingegaard, Remco Evenepoel, Mikel Landa, João Almeida, Tobias Johannessen, Egan Bernal, Carlos Verona, Jan Hirt

Pick: Tadej Pogacar