PREVIEW | Giro d'Italia 2025 stage 20 - Colle delle Finestre will decide Giro d'Italia; Del Toro faces Carapaz and Yates

The Corsa Rosa is the first Grand Tour of the season and this year it will include a start in a nation that will for the first time in it's history host a Grand Tour, Albania; and also several mountain stages in it's second half whilst the first half will feature some tricky stages including one that goes through a lot of the Strade Bianche course. We preview stage 20.

The queen stage? Many will say that exactly, it's a day with an easy start but the Giro organizers have saved the best for last. In 2018 over these climbs we saw the race turned on it's head as pink jersey Simon Yates cracked and Chris Froome stormed to the race lead with a huge solo attack. It doesn't look like it, as a lot of the stage looks flat, but there are 4400 meters of climbing, and it's a truly devastating finale to the race.

The riders climb the Collle del Lys with 90 kilometers to go, and by this point some teams can truly set up attacks for later on, and drain the legs of their rivals through these rolling roads. Riders have seen what is possible as in 2018 the pink jersey himself crumbled completely, and so we know anything can happen.

Because then comes the insanely difficult Colle delle Finestre, an hour-long ascent which averages 9% for over 18 kilometers, 7 of which in gravel. It's going to decimate the peloton this late in the race. There's nowhere to hide, you need your very best level on this climb, or you can lose minutes. If that wasn't hard enough, the climb ends with still 28 kilometers to go.

The final climb to Sestriere then will be 16 kilometers long, the first half very gentle and on false-flat roads, but the final 10 kilometers average 5%... At altitude, after Finèstre and on stage 20, this may end up becoming one of the hardest ascents of the race, and will create the final overall classification differences.

Not much wind to mention, but there are some chances of rain. It could make the final descent more treacherous, and perhaps make the gravel more compact - no real effect in the racing, but visually it would look different.

Isaac del Toro - Today he survived, but the reality is he wasn't really tested today. Yes, Carapaz attacked in the final climb, but his move on the Col de Joux was not an all-out attack. UAE had the depth, they will continue to have, but now on Finestre the gradients are high enough to make the difference anywhere and Del Toro won't have the same comfort to follow the wheel - and his explosiveness won't be worth much. It's the final, but ultimate test for the Mexican. After these two stages, the confidence is higher, and now 45 do matter quite a bit, but he will still not be the strongest on paper.

Richard Carapaz - Carapaz couldn't distance Del Toro today, but he did continue to show his best level, which is a good sign ahead of tomorrow. Not having the team to destroy the race won't matter as much, EF and other teams will be able to make it hard enough early on and then have the road to make the difference one-to-one. The climb is long, steep, at altitude... Honestly it's Carapaz' terrain, and if he has the legs he will 100% attack.

Top 3 Fight - Today a separation looked to be clear, and we now have Simon Yates versus Derek Gee in the battle for the final podium spot. I don't think Yates, in regular conditions, will be able to win the Giro, but the decisive climb will not be explosive at all and so he will be in his ground. Gee looks to be a little better, but the steep gradients won't favour him.

Top 10 Fight - The exact same faces are present and the battle will be the same. From these riders I don't expect attacks anymore as this isn't a climb to attack, but to pace. No crazy Bernal, no surging Pellizzari... But all of them are expected to be up there and trying to gain time on the competition if they are able to. More importantly, these men can be important allies to the podium contenders after Finestre.

Breakaway - It will be hard, the finale is very very hard and I honestly do expect teams like EF and Israel at least to put men in the front of the peloton to keep a high pace throughout the day, they showed intention today - BORA perhaps as well. But the roads are very flat, if some teams are actually planning on controlling the breakaway it is actually an easy job.

Nevertheless, if a few strong climbers manage to get themselves in front, they can be a headache later in the day. Daniel Martínez, Antonio Tiberi, Jonathan Castroviejo, Louis Meintjes, Carlos Verona, Mattia Cattaneo, Filippo Zana, Romain Bardet, Wilco Kelderman, Lorenzo Fortunato, Christian Scaroni and Florian Stork are some of the big favourites.

*** Isaac del Toro, Richard Carapaz
** Simon Yates, Derek Gee
* Giulio Pellizzari, Damiano Caruso, Einer Rubio, Egan Bernal, Antonio Tiberi, Carlos Verona, Filippo Zana, Romain Bardet, Lorenzo Fortunato, Christian Scaroni, Florian Stork

Pick: Richard Carapaz

How: Solo win