Middelkerke - Wevelgem 2026 preview, profiles, favourites & predictions - Can Mathieu van der Poel and Wout Van Aert beat the sprinters?

On the 29th of March, the peloton takes on Middelkerke - Wevelgem (formerly knows as Gent - Wevelgem). The Belgian classic is part of the World Tour calendar and is one of the most prestigious one-day races in the calendar, where classics specialists and sprinters go head-to-head in a route that is very balanced towards both. We take a look at its profile; with the race estimated to start and finish at 10:00 and 15:20CET.

The race was created in 1934 as Gent - Wevelgem and was won by Gustave van Belle in its first year. Rik van Looy, Jacques Anquetil, Eddy Merckx, Freddy Maertens, Jan Raas, Francesco Moser, Bernard Hinault, Sean Kelly and Mario Cipollini were amongst the most notable winners of the race in the 20th century. Due to the race's nature, many top sprinters also managed to win this race alongside the renowned classics specialists, creating an incredible and also versatile palmarès.

Tom Boonen, Thor Hushovd, Óscar Freire, Peter Sagan, John Degenkolb, Greg van Avermaert, Alexander Kristoff were also notable winners in this century; whilst since 2020 the race was almost exclusively won by sprinters - although not always in a sprint. Mads Pedersen, Wout Van Aert, Biniam Girmay and Christophe Laporte were the winners. Pedersen won in 2020 from a bunch sprint; in 2024 from a two-rider sprint and in 2025 he won with a long-distance attack which took the race by storm.

Starting in Middelkerke this year, the start of the race follows different roads to those that are usually used out from Ghent. However the format of the race has not changed in any way, with pan-flat roads dominating the first 130 kilometers, where the wind can play a factor however,

Most of the 241-kilometer race is flat, not a hard profile which is the reason why in most years it is a reduced group sprint fighting it out for the win. The race is flat except for a hilly section which is based on three ascents of the Kemmelberg in which every year there are attacks, as well as off-road sections which have been added in recent years.

Through Belvedère, the riders will climb up twice. It’s a grueling ramp where many will suffer, splits will occur in the first time up with 90 kilometers to go (400 meters at 10%). From there on there will be a few gravel sectors known as the ‘plugstreets’, which will see 4 kilometers where mishaps may happen, a game of luck essentially when it comes to mechanicals, with the last one finishing with 72 kilometers to go.

The second time up the Kemmelberg will be with 58 kilometers to go and in this time up attacks are certain as the classics riders will want to push on the pace to definitely drop the fast men, and make a definitive difference.

There are a couple of hilltops following, but the last place to make a difference based on power is the ascent to the Kemmelberg via the Ossuaire. It is a harder ascent, most of it on tarmac but with small-ring gradients before the riders hit the cobbles that go up to 18%. It’s a 30-second max effort where riders tend to crack near the summit, it comes with 36 kilometers to go.

Because the riders reach the hardest gradients already after a minute of hard effort, the attacks have better chances of succeeding; and the descent that follows is through a narrow road which helps create large splits. This can then be used by those out front.

From there on though there will be relief as much of the approach to Wevelgem is completely flat and not very technical. There will be time to reorganize, put on a chase for both smaller and bigger groups. The race has a very interesting dynamic where the specialists and the sprinters try to balance the race towards their preferred direction, and it’s a race that usually sees different types of scenarios that lead to the win.

As always the wind will be blowing strong and this Sunday it will come from the west, slightly southwest. This means the race will be very fast and very hard, with a tendency of tailwinds from the start, and a tailwind to the finish. This favours attackers like nothing else, and it means the breakaway can also be a bigger factor than in previous years perhaps; as if they time their efforts well, they can certainly move away from the climbs in front and with other attackers that have a good chance of sticking it out.

It is not a question whether Mathieu van der Poel will attack, that will happen. This can happen in the final Kemmelberg climbs but also on the gravel sectors, where two years ago he and Mads Pedersen took the race to the rest. Those sectors are not uphill however and so they allow for other riders to be in the mix, and then for the pace not to be as high on the climbs. For that reason van der Poel may not anticipate the competition, but what he has to do is make the difference on the climbs and have at least one rider with him afterwards - unless his gap is substantial like Pedersen's last year.

Luckily, some of the absolute best powerhouse riders in the peloton for a 5-minute effort are present. Wout Van Aert, Christophe Laporte, Filippo Ganna, Jonas Abrahamsen, Alec Segaert, Florian Vermeersch, Mathias Vacek, Tim Van Dijke... If one of these men do an all-out attack on the gravel, then the whole peloton will break apart because the others will have to follow them, and there will be only a few riders going into the climbs in position to win the race. Every single one of them, this season, has given great evidence of having great form. On the climbs themselves, perhaps the differences between themselves are bigger.

But these men are all very dangerous and can't go into the flat section in the head of the race, or the peloton will have a headache to close it back down. Aside from them there are other dangerous figures however too, such as Matej Mohoric, Davide Ballerini, Magnus Sheffield, Michael Valgren and Jasper Stuyven.

But as we know, this is a race that can end in a sprint. This year, I deem that unlikely, the strong winds throughout the day and the tailwind to the finish is just too impactful I recon. If a front group averages around 53Km/h in the final 30 kilometers, the peloton will have to do around 56/57Km/h to close it down. That is another reason why you attack these races from far. If you have the gap and maintain decent speed, it takes the riders in the peloton substantially more effort to be able to close it back down, because these are already incredibly high speeds that are hard to reach and in which rising 1Km/h is already a hard effort.

A few sprinters will have the privilege of just having to stay in the wheels, resist and play for whatever result is available in the finale. Jasper Philipsen, Matthew Brennan and Juan Sebastián Molano for example don't really have to think about working or closing gaps. This can be a mental and physical advantage into the finale.

Others are in intermediate positions. Jonathan Milan, Soren Waerenskjold, Jordi Meeus, Ben Turner, Paul Magnier... These men have very strong sprints, but they also have cards in their teams to be played during the offensive phase of the race. If they don't have to, they will love not having to work. But if they don't have their teammates up front, then these teams are likely to be the ones taking up the most responsibility to work.

Other teams will likely fully focus on a sprint: keeping at least one of two of their riders with the sprinter always, and then begin to work right after the climbs to the max. Tobias Lund Andresen's Decathlon; Biniam Girmay's NSN; Pavel Bittner's Picnic PostNL; Arnaud de Lie's Lotto... These are men who handle the terrain well and have a strong sprint too.

Then on a third line of sprinters we have some other fast men worth considering such as Matteo Trentin, Luca Mozzato, Phil Bauhaus, Fred Wright, Pascal Ackermann, Tom Crabbe, Max Kanter, Luke Lamperti, Marijn van den Berg, Laurenz Rex, Milan Fretin, Emilien Jeannière and Lukas Kubis. Some of these men have better options in their team either to attack or sprint, but you never know who has the legs or makes it in the splits in such a race, so it's good to have different ways to achieve a good result.

*** Mathieu van der Poel, Wout Van Aert
** Filippo Ganna, Jasper Philipsen, Jordi Meeus, Paul Magnier, Tobias Lund Andrsen, Mads Pedersen
* Florian Vermeersch, Alec Segaert, Jonas Abrahamsen, Christophe Laporte, Tim van Dijke, Matteo Trentin, Soren Waerenskjold, Biniam Girmay, Jonathan Milan, Ben Turner, Arnaud de Lie, Pavel Bittner, Laurenz Rex, Matthew Brennan

Pick: Mathieu van der Poel

How: Small group sprint.