Is Paul Seixas already Tadej Pogacar’s biggest rival? - 20-year-old's historic Il Lombardia triumph puts him in conversation with UAE leader
Cycling
The 2026 cycling season is nearing its conclusion, but Il Lombardia has given us one of the year’s biggest stories. Without Tadej Pogacar on the start line, the season’s final Monument looked more open than it had in years. It offered other leading peloton names the chance to stake their claim as classics dominators, and Paul Seixas seized it. The Frenchman produced an outstanding victory that confirms everything he had been suggesting in recent months.
The question is unavoidable: should Tadej Pogacar start worrying about Paul Seixas’s emergence? For now, the Slovenian remains the dominant force in world cycling, but the young Frenchman has shown that he belongs among the next tier of riders capable of targeting the biggest victories. More importantly, he still has enormous room for improvement.
The victory at Il Lombardia was neither an isolated result nor a surprise explained solely by the absences. Seixas has completed an extraordinary season, producing top-level performances from the opening months of the calendar. His triumph in Italy capped a year in which he moved from promising talent to undeniable reality.
In Lombardy, he also conveyed a sense of superiority that deserves emphasis. While other favourites failed to answer the race’s demands, the Frenchman found his moment on the final climbs and rode clear alone to the finish. He did not need a succession of attacks to drop his rivals. When the decisive moment arrived, he was simply the strongest.
Paul Seixas, a champion who finished the year in style
Enric Mas and Giulio Ciccone were among the riders who looked strongest. The Mallorcan arrived after an outstanding Vuelta a España, while the Italian had also shown excellent form late in the season with Lidl-Trek.
However, neither could match Seixas’s pace once the race had been definitively selected.
Personally, I believe Enric Mas came closest to posing a genuine threat, judging by his legs and his ability to handle the route’s difficulty. But the Frenchman was a level above. Considering the form Mas has shown in recent months, that says a great deal about the rider in front of us.
A season that began with a warning for Pogacar
To understand the scale of what Seixas achieved at Il Lombardia, we need to look back. He began the year by making it clear that he could compete with the best. At the Volta ao Algarve, he finished second overall behind Juan Ayuso after demonstrating his speed in a sprint that also featured Joao Almeida. That performance was already reason to follow his development closely.
The Frenchman later won the Faun-Ardèche Classic and finished second at Strade Bianche, beaten only by Tadej Pogacar. It was one of the first major signs that he could challenge the world’s best specialists for victory.
His next exhibition came at Itzulia, where he won three stages and the general classification. Seixas did more than collect strong results: he dominated a stage race and confirmed that his abilities extended well beyond one-day classics. He then won La Flèche Wallonne and finished second at Liège-Bastogne-Liège, once again behind Pogacar.
That start to the season was already extraordinary. But the most interesting aspect is that the Frenchman has continued to gain experience at the highest level and has turned it into results. This is not a rider who appeared during one particularly inspired week. He is a cyclist who has been competitive across different terrains and against opposition of the highest calibre.
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The Tour de France confirmed that he can also shine in stage races
Seixas’s progress has not been limited to the classics. After abandoning the Tour Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes following a crash, there were doubts about how he would arrive at the Tour de France. However, his performance in the calendar’s most important race answered many of those questions.
On his Tour de France debut, he finished fourth overall and remained involved in the battle in the high mountains. It is true that he was still a step short of the riders occupying the top positions, with Pogacar ahead and Remco Evenepoel and Isaac del Toro among the classification’s leading protagonists. But finishing fourth on your first Tour is an extraordinary result.
This is where I believe we need to pause. Seixas has not only shown that he can win one-day races; he also has the attributes to become a Grand Tour contender. That combination could make him a truly special rider.
The question now is how much he can improve in the coming years. If he has already achieved these results at 20, it is only logical to wonder what will happen as he gains experience, learns to manage his efforts more effectively and takes further steps in his preparation.
Canada and the World Championships: a lesson before conquering Lombardy
The final stretch of his season also brought highs and lows. In the Canadian classics, Seixas finished 17th at the Grand Prix Cycliste de Québec and second at the Grand Prix Cycliste de Montréal, where he once again showed excellent form by reaching the decisive phase alongside Isaac del Toro.
He then produced an outstanding performance in the time trial at the World Championships, taking bronze behind Remco Evenepoel and Filippo Ganna. The result confirmed his ability to compete with the best specialists in such a demanding discipline.
The World Championship road race was a different story. Seixas finished 15th after trying to follow the race moves and expending a great deal of energy. The result fell short of his expectations, and the Frenchman was highly critical of his own performance.
However, that experience should also be viewed from another perspective. Not every race will go well, even for the most talented riders. The difference lies in learning from difficult days and finding the ability to compete at the highest level again after a disappointment.
Seixas decided not to race any more Italian classics before Il Lombardia and returned directly at the final monument of the year. The result could not have been better: victory, a dominant display and definitive confirmation that we are witnessing one of the leading names in cycling’s present and future.
Paul Seixas crosses the finish line at Il Lombardia 2026
Is he ready to challenge Tadej Pogacar for the throne?
This is the major debate. Pogacar remains the undisputed benchmark, and it would not be fair to place Seixas on his level based solely on one victory at Il Lombardia. The Slovenian has built his position through an exceptional record and remains the rider everyone wants to beat.
But Seixas has already shown in 2026 that he can compete directly with him. He finished second at Strade Bianche and Liège-Bastogne-Liège, before ending the year by winning a monument. These are significant results, especially for a rider of his age.
What stands out most is that his season does not depend on a single peak of form. He performed from February through October, won stage races, took classic victories and answered the challenge of his first Tour de France. His progress has been constant, despite setbacks and the occasional disappointment.
That is why, rather than asking whether Seixas is already at Pogacar’s level, we should ask how long he will need to move even closer. The gap separating him from the Slovenian remains uncertain, but his 2026 performance allows him to dream of a rivalry that could shape the coming years.
It will also be important to see how he responds to riders such as Jonas Vingegaard and Remco Evenepoel in the grand tours. The talent is clearly there, but the next step is to turn that ability into even greater consistency against the world’s best.
Seixas’s future: continuity or a change of team?
The other major question concerns his professional future. After a season of such magnitude, attention on his situation and the team with which he will tackle the coming years is bound to increase.
The possibility of changing teams opens an interesting debate. Would he benefit from racing alongside Pogacar at UAE Team Emirates-XRG, or would it be preferable to join a project in which he could play a more prominent role? An outfit such as INEOS Grenadiers, or another team able to offer the right environment for his continued development, could also be an option.
These questions still have no answer in the information available to us, but they are relevant to understanding the next chapter of his career. Choosing the right team could be decisive for a rider who needs to keep developing without giving up the chance to compete for the biggest objectives.
In any case, the priority should be for Seixas to maintain the progress he has shown this year. He has time to improve, learn and discover how far he can go. He does not need to prove everything immediately.
Tadej Pogacar at the 2026 Tour de France
Il Lombardia confirms that we have a rider for many years to come
Sometimes cycling insists on reminding us that the future arrives sooner than expected. Paul Seixas has ended 2026 with his first monument after a season in which he won the Itzulia and La Flèche Wallonne, while finishing second in races such as Strade Bianche and Liège-Bastogne-Liège. Add to that fourth place in the Tour de France and a world championship bronze medal in the time trial.
The Frenchman is no longer a prospect we must wait for. He is one of the best cyclists in the world and a rider we must watch very closely in 2027.
Can he become Pogacar’s great rival? I believe he has the credentials to try. Is he already on the Slovenian’s level? There is still insufficient evidence to say so. But he has shown that he possesses the talent, results and youth needed to keep closing the gap.
Il Lombardia was much more than a victory for Paul Seixas. It confirmed that cycling has a new star and that Pogacar’s dominance could face an increasingly difficult rival to ignore in the years ahead.
Next season will offer further clues. In the meantime, we should enjoy what this young Frenchman has achieved. At just 20 years old, what he accomplished in 2026 is simply extraordinary.
Juan LarraCycling Journalist
Juan Larra is a writer for Cyclinguptodate and editor-in-chief of Ciclismoaldia, where he has played a central role since its inception. Under his leadership, the website has become a trusted source for professional cycling coverage, offering in-depth analysis, news, and feature stories.
A sports journalist with over 20 years of experience, Juan earned his degree in Journalism from the University of Seville in 2007. He began his career covering a wide range of sports—including football, basketball, Formula 1, MotoGP, tennis, and cycling—for platforms such as the official La Liga app, Vodafone and Movistar websites, NBA Blogdebasket, and Cadena Cope, honing his skills in writing and editorial management.
In addition to his work at Ciclismoaldia, Juan contributes to Cyclinguptodate and serves as editor-in-chief for the tennis-focused site Tenisaldia. Throughout his career, he has conducted exclusive interviews with cyclists and sports figures, provided detailed analysis of competitions ranging from local Spanish races to major international events, and acted as a special correspondent at prestigious races including Paris-Roubaix, the Tour de France, and the Vuelta a España.
Juan’s combination of experience, expertise, and direct access to athletes has established him—and the platforms he leads—as authoritative voices in professional cycling.
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- oh boy, you're gargling with french balls now?? pogi going to be jealous.whkman11-10-2026
- Well if UAE the best team in history comes knocking their the only team in the world who can get Seixas. Seixas will become incredible there. Lets see if he stays at decathlon or goes to UAE.miguel11-10-2026
- Ahem, stage 16 of the 2025 Giro
Rafionain-Glas11-10-2026 - Can we get a comment from the UCI on this. The silence from Aigle is deafening! Come on cycling journalists , start annoying them to get a comment please.Paul53111-10-2026
- A shame to see him retire, I really liked him as a rider. His dignified tribute along with Matej Mohorovic to Gino Mader after his death was class and will always live in my memory. Enjoy your retirement.GregT11-10-2026
- A shame to see him retire, I really liked him as a rider. His dignified tribute along with Matej Mohorovic to Gino Mader after his death was class and will always live in my memory. Enjoy your retirement.GregT11-10-2026
- I thought Seixas had hit the end of the road from a fatigue standpoint, after the WC meltdown - and he still finished ok. This was impressive and an amazing return.mij11-10-2026
- totally, eating crow for breakfast this morning. after the world championships I thought we were looking at a late season fade from fatigue. way to go Paul!mij11-10-2026
- Pogi would have won the Vuelta at around 10 min. But it would have been boring for fools like you. Capish?PogiSloFans11-10-2026
- Rather than me describing the technology at length on here, If you google. Line-scan cameras. They are also sometimes called Slit-Scan cameras. Either search will fill you in. You can read all about how they. work. Enjoy! Just to be clear the cyclist is saying he wants to see exactly where the digital finish line is in relation to the actual physical finish. At this point we only have the word of the authority that the digital line corresponds to the exact starting edge of the physical finish line. That seems like a reasonable request to me.Prorodsandstuff11-10-2026
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