“If Enric Mas wins today, I think he’ll win the Vuelta” - Bruyneel makes major red jersey prediction ahead of key stage
CyclingThursday, 03 September 2026 at 11:30
Matthew Brennan stunned the peloton again on stage 11 of La Vuelta a España 2026. The 21-year-old Briton took his third win on his Grand Tour debut and confirmed that his sprint dominance at this race is no fluke.
That was the view of Johan Bruyneel and Spencer Martin on the The Move podcast, where they highlighted both Team Visma | Lease a Bike’s superiority in the finale and Brennan’s extraordinary potential. They also discussed Enric Mas, the Movistar Team leader, as the favourite to win the race and stage 12.
The victory followed another textbook display from the Dutch squad in the closing kilometres. Christophe Laporte and Wout van Aert delivered a flawless lead-out for Brennan, who entered the final kilometre at a speed that left rivals unable to even come off his wheel. “It was a sprint clinic from Visma. A perfect lead-out by Christophe Laporte and Wout van Aert. Nobody had a chance,” Martin said.
Bruyneel, for his part, put the spotlight on the collective effort. The Belgian ex-pro chose Visma as his “move of the day” and underlined the team’s ability to stay calm when it looked like they had hit the front too early. “They controlled with Cofidis and, in the end, still had strong numbers. Laporte and Van Aert waited until the very last moment,” Bruyneel noted.
Van Aert’s role was decisive again. The Belgian shut down moves on the final rise and then produced a huge turn to drop Brennan in winning position. Martin even compared it to his work at the Giro d’Italia 2025 to launch Olav Kooij. “Van Aert is doing the job that would normally take two or three riders in a lead-out train. It’s impressive,” Martin said.
“22 wins at 21 is crazy”
Brennan was the central figure of the analysis. With his stage 11 success, the Visma rider now has three wins at his first Grand Tour. Bruyneel also put a striking number on the table to frame the scale of the Briton’s breakout.
Brennan already has 22 victories at just 21. For comparison, Tadej Pogacar had eight at that age, while Eddy Merckx had five. “Matthew Brennan has 22 wins. Of course, we’re not comparing them because they’re not the same type of rider, but 22 wins at 21 is crazy,” Bruyneel said.
Martin went even further and joked that cycling still doesn’t grasp what is coming. “I feel like a scientist in a sci‑fi movie who discovers a meteor coming to destroy Earth. You don’t understand what’s coming, cycling. This kid is going to dominate,” he said.
Both agreed, however, that Brennan is not a pure sprinter. His ability to win explosive, slightly uphill finishes allows him to thrive in scenarios different from those of the flat-out sprint specialists.
Brennan is already up to three wins at the Vuelta a España 2026
Visma find the perfect scenario
Bruyneel believes he is not yet at the level of Jasper Philipsen, Tim Merlier, or Jonathan Milan in a dead-flat, top-speed drag, though he left the door open for Brennan to close that gap. “For the moment he’s not a pure sprinter,” he said.
His true ceiling, according to Bruyneel, may lie in the Classics. If he improves his endurance, the Briton could become a contender for races like the Tour of Flanders, especially because he would not necessarily need to arrive solo to win. “He’s the kind of rider built for short, violent, explosive efforts. If he gains more endurance, he’ll be right up there,” he noted.
Another factor behind Brennan’s dominance at this Vuelta, according to Bruyneel, is the level of sprinters and lead-out trains in the race.
The Belgian argues that the Spanish Grand Tour is far from the speed and positional battle seen at the Tour de France or the Giro d’Italia. The absence of big sprint trains allows Visma to impose their superiority with far greater ease.
“At this Vuelta there are no true sprinters or trains. The level of the sprinters, and especially the lead-out trains, is nowhere near the Tour de France,” he said.
That makes Visma almost impossible to control in finishes that suit Brennan. Laporte and Van Aert can also shoulder a workload that would normally take several riders. The upshot is clear: as long as Brennan reaches the final metres well protected, his rivals seem to have very few options.
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Enric Mas, Bruyneel’s top favourite
Beyond Brennan’s win, Bruyneel and Martin also assessed the general classification picture after stage 11.
One of the most striking aspects was Movistar’s improvement around Enric Mas. After the leader found himself relatively isolated at points in the previous stage, the Spanish team was far more present in the echelons and consistently kept several riders by his side. But it was a comment from Mas that truly surprised Bruyneel.
Asked who is now the main favourite to win La Vuelta after Tadej Pogacar’s withdrawal, the Spanish rider replied without hesitation: “I am the favourite.” For Bruyneel, that answer is a clear sign of the confidence with which Mas is approaching the race.
In addition, the Belgian said he had heard from people close to the rider that Mas is “better than ever” in his career. A feeling that, in his view, is also visible on the bike. “For Enric Mas to say he’s the favourite means he’s brimming with confidence. He must feel really good,” he noted. Martin agreed that Mas is showing a level that until recently seemed hard to imagine. “Maybe we’ve unlocked something with Enric Mas,” he suggested.
Enric Mas, La Vuelta leader
Bruyneel backs Mas for stage 12
Stage 12 now looms as a particularly important test for the general classification. It covers 167 kilometres with around 4,500 metres of elevation gain, five categorised climbs, and a particularly demanding final ascent.
The last climb runs 17 kilometres at 5.6% average, though its first 6.5 kilometres hover around a 9% average gradient. The ascent also takes the peloton up to nearly 2,200 metres above sea level.
Bruyneel believes the break will have little chance of making it to the line and is betting on a straight fight between the GC contenders. “I think it will be a GC stage, and I’m going to predict Enric Mas takes the win tomorrow, in red,” he said.
Martin, however, keeps his faith in Oscar Onley, although he acknowledges that Mas’s strength is starting to reshape the race. “If Enric Mas wins tomorrow, I think he wins La Vuelta,” Martin asserted.
Bruyneel also believes the decisive attack could come on a specific section of the final climb, with a kilometre near 9.5% about two kilometres from the finish. “That’s where Enric Mas drops everyone,” he ventured.
Juan LarraCycling Journalist
Juan Larra is a writer for Cyclinguptodate and editor-in-chief of Ciclismoaldia, where he has played a central role since its inception. Under his leadership, the website has become a trusted source for professional cycling coverage, offering in-depth analysis, news, and feature stories.
A sports journalist with over 20 years of experience, Juan earned his degree in Journalism from the University of Seville in 2007. He began his career covering a wide range of sports—including football, basketball, Formula 1, MotoGP, tennis, and cycling—for platforms such as the official La Liga app, Vodafone and Movistar websites, NBA Blogdebasket, and Cadena Cope, honing his skills in writing and editorial management.
In addition to his work at Ciclismoaldia, Juan contributes to Cyclinguptodate and serves as editor-in-chief for the tennis-focused site Tenisaldia. Throughout his career, he has conducted exclusive interviews with cyclists and sports figures, provided detailed analysis of competitions ranging from local Spanish races to major international events, and acted as a special correspondent at prestigious races including Paris-Roubaix, the Tour de France, and the Vuelta a España.
Juan’s combination of experience, expertise, and direct access to athletes has established him—and the platforms he leads—as authoritative voices in professional cycling.
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- If Wally cant win the WC i'd be all in for Mads
Davide03-09-2026 - Now I have... great race.bike-anarkist03-09-2026
- Come on, put some effort in to the prediction please. Simply predicting Santiago Buitraigo for stage 12 is an easy way to avoid predicting what will happen with the GC. If you do think a breakaway will win, at least also mention what will happen in the favourites group, as that is a race of its own
Rafionain-Glas02-09-2026 - There is a saying in motor sport "In order to finish 1st first you have to finish"BevEvans02-09-2026
- This team is on the decline!!!mij02-09-2026
- Bahrain-Victorious's Slovenian environment is betterRafionain-Glas02-09-2026
- Can see that - why burn the matches in vain - it’s a long race, riders have other goals and ambitionsCrashjames02-09-2026
- Hah now it’s a race!Crashjames02-09-2026
- Stef Clement is an "analyst,"... with the BS he said? Really, are you serious? Does he know that crashes in numerous occasions are inevitable and unavoidable? No he doesn't. If he did, he wouldn't be spitting this #$"@§%&/()=* nonsense around. PS: Did Jonas, Van Aert, Remco, Roglič...etc etc. crash so many times because they knew they were the best and became careless? Answer this one Clement... just don't insult my intelligence. Capish?PogiSloFans02-09-2026
- What a stupid thing to say! Niki Lauda raced again 42 days after he burned out. If he's ready, he will race.MajorPayne02-09-2026
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