Belgium instead arrive with two established world-class leaders capable of winning in very different ways. Evenepoel has already won the rainbow jersey through a long-range attack, taking the 2022 title in Wollongong, while Van Aert remains a major threat if a larger group reaches the closing kilometres.
Van Aert's own preparation has also gathered momentum at the Vuelta. His
Stage 13 victory came after an aggressive day in the breakaway and a late attack, further strengthening his case heading towards one of the biggest remaining targets of his season.
A squad built for more than just the Montreal climbs
The reported Belgian selection reflects the demands of a road race that combines a long, relatively flat opening section with 12 laps of the much harder Mount Royal circuit. Across 273.7 kilometres, the elite men will accumulate almost 3,800 metres of climbing.
That helps explain why the six riders around Evenepoel and Van Aert offer different qualities rather than simply forming a collection of climbers. Segaert brings considerable power for the opening phase, while Benoot and Gianni Vermeersch have extensive experience of long, attritional one-day races. Van Gils, Hermans and Nys give Belgium riders capable of remaining useful much deeper into the selective part of the race.
Pauwels had already made clear that the final places would be decided by more than current results alone. “Form is certainly important. But perhaps even more important is the form curve, in the sense of: is that form improving, or is someone already at the end of a peak? Has someone already had a lot of race days, or already had two peaks during the season? That is also something we take into account,” he told WielerFlits on Friday. “And obviously there is also the role we envisage them playing in supporting the team. Because that World Championship is a combination of a flat opening section and then a very difficult course. We want to be able to support our leaders in both parts of the race.”
That question of trajectory was particularly relevant to Nys. The 23-year-old underwent knee surgery earlier in the season before another setback when he contracted toxoplasmosis at the beginning of August. Pauwels had openly indicated that Montreal suited Nys but wanted evidence during the Vuelta that his level was moving in the right direction.
If the reported selection is confirmed on Monday, both Nys and Gianni Vermeersch will make their first appearances in the elite men's road race at the World Championships.
Evenepoel won the road race world title in Wollongong
Belgian depth leaves several contenders at home
The strength of the Belgian pool is also evident in the riders who have reportedly missed selection.
Ramses Debruyne and Emiel Verstrynge are both set to stay at home despite having been among the candidates for the final squad. Debruyne has enjoyed a breakthrough season that included an impressive Tour de France and has continued to show himself strongly uphill during the Vuelta.
Verstrynge had strengthened his case with another impressive run through the Ardennes Classics in April, but HLN reports that his chances faded following a more difficult Tour.
Pauwels has already had to adjust his original plans considerably. Tim Wellens and Ilan Van Wilder became unavailable, while Victor Campenaerts, Florian Vermeersch and Cian Uijtdebroeks had previously ruled themselves out of consideration.
Even after those losses, Belgium are set to take a team to Montreal containing a former road world champion in Evenepoel, a three-time Worlds road race medallist in Van Aert and substantial support across both halves of the course. With Pogacar no longer defending the rainbow jersey, the Belgian pair will be central to the battle to succeed him on September 27.