ANALYSIS: Mathieu van der Poel and Wout van Aert should work together at the World Championships and here's why
CyclingSaturday, 26 September 2026 at 06:00
Mathieu van der Poel and Wout van Aert have spent their careers and then some as each other's biggest rivals, but for the first time, it seems like the greatest of foes could find that working together is their best chance of success.
With a climber-heavy list of favourites to win the 2026 World Championships road race on Sunday, the Classics duo arrive in Montreal with rainbow jersey ambitions but have the odds stacked against them on a finish circuit that favours the lighter climbers.
Spending their early days as cyclo-cross and road competitors, van der Poel and van Aert have since made a career out of trading podium spots in some of cycling's biggest races. Although rooted in respect, their rivalry runs deep and brings out the best in both riders.
However, the pair can't afford to look at each other in the preferred terrain of Remco Evenepel, Isaac del Toro and Paul Seixas, and won't want those favourites to reach the final hour of racing alongside the duo.
In this case, it's unlikely that they'll be able to last as both the attrition of a 273-kilometer race matched with the intensity of the climbers taking on the repeated ascents spells disaster for their chances of victory.
We've analysed both riders' chances of victory and why a change of heart could help give the two a golden opportunity to take home the rainbow jersey on Sunday evening.
Mathieu van der Poel
Mathieu van der Poel's red-hot form
First thing's first, van der Poel is seemingly in brilliant form ahead of Sunday. He won the World Championships in 2023, but crucially, on a city circuit parcours around Glasgow better suited to his strengths. In Montreal, the circuit's opening Voie Camillien-Houte climb is 1.7 kilometres at an average gradient of 7.7 percent.
While the climb is short enough to suit the Dutchman in isolation, 12 ascents over the final 173 kilometres of the race changes the game. On the latter ascents, the relentless re-appearance of the climb could see him pay the price when he's following top level climbers each time.
Mathieu van der Poel's solution? Throw the hammer down earlier and make it a more demanding and attacking race earlier. In doing so, the race situation is likely to interrupt the climbers' rhthym and force Belgium and France's hand to burn matches to keep the favourites within striking distance.
And he has already seemingly hinted that it's the plan. Last Sunday, he launched a 170-kilometre solo attack at the Tour of Luxembourg - on a parcours that comes close to matching that of the final 12 laps of Montreal. It paid off, after setting off at the beginning of the stage, he was never seen again by the peloton as he pulled off a remarkable victory.
So, all indications tell us that van der Poel is preparing to unleash a long-range move to set himself ahead of the climbers for hours at the front of affairs. He only needs one thing - an ally.
Wout van Aert ahead of the 2026 World Championships in Montreal
The Wout van Aert dilemma
Belgium has the market favourite for the race in Remco Evenepoel. A superb one-day racer in form and hopes to add his second rainbow jersey to his palmarès. France also boasts the second favourite in Paul Seixas, with Isaac del Toro waiting in the wings. The ideal situation for these riders is to kee[ the race under control before they all make their moves in the final laps.
Then comes the question: How does Wout van Aert ride the race? While traditionally a sprint option throughout his career, the Visma rider, like van der Poel, is not a certainty to hold on and back Evenepoel as a second option given the attrition from the repeated climbs. Likewise, Evenepoel is also unlikely to make Belgium's anticipation move with van Aert behind him.
Some have speculated that the Paris-Roubaix winner could serve as the engine room in the main group for Evenepoel, chasing moves and setting pace, particularly on the rolling terrain of the second half of the circuit. But is that the most effective use of Belgium's potential Trump card? There might be another way.
If Belgium seeks a gold medal in the most efficient way, there is an argument to be made to use Wout van Aert in a way that not only gives the Visma rider his best chance at a rainbow jersey, but could also increase Evenepoel's likelihood of beating Seixas and del Toro—presenting two favourable scenarios for them in the final laps.
Mathieu van der Poel and Wout van Aert
Rivals should work together
We have seen scenarios where both van der Poel and van Aert have found themselves as potential allies. Tour of Flanders in recent years springs to mind as the two found themselves facing the big fish of Tadej Pogacar, invading their classics pond. But with Pogacar, it's been every man for themselves in their bid to cling on to the Slovenian.
But the World Championships presents an opportunity for the two to become true allies in a race against the rest. In simple terms, it suits both riders best to try and jump ahead of the main peloton almost as early as possible in the race and then work together to build an advantage over the rest before they are inevitably chased in the final laps.
Let's look at it from the Dutchman's perspective first. If he's planning a similar 100-170 kilometre venture, he will want company. Does he want a race favourite or teammate of Seixas or Tom Pidcock along side him and the pressure put on him to do the work? Not really.
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What he could find useful is Wout van Aert alongside him, not afraid to share the workload, a strong enough climber to keep the pace high enough on the Camillien-Houte ascent and someone he knows how to beat in a two-up battle in the finale. It's his best chance to keep the chasers at bay while also keeping his chances of victory high enough if it comes down to those two contesting the win.
That's a tough gig for Wout van Aert to sign up for when looking at van der Poel's intentions, but there's a lot in it for both the rider and the nation to at least be enticing should the Dutchman make an early move.
Like van der Poel, van Aert too will see the commitment he'll receive at the front with his rival and will also see a way to victory should the two go to the final lap together - he'll feel that the attrition and difficulty of the climb could be a way to drop the Dutchman and will also see value in trying his luck from his sprint.
Van Aert helping van der Poel could help Remco Evenepoel's chances in Montreal
But the real caveat is what this alliance could do for Belgium's chances. In a scenario where van Aert, van der Poel and even others are ahead of the main group of favourites, Belgium is seemingly in the perfect spot. If it doesn't come back together, they have a strong contender in the fight for victory.
But it forces France, Great Britain, the USA, Spain, Mexico and others to forcibly try and close that move down, enticing Seixas and del Toro to change their gameplan in a race without team radios and limited communication, inviting additional pressure on the rivals. All the while, Evenepoel is put in the driving seat to react and pick his mark when he sees fit.
Whether it results in a sensational Mathieu van der Poel rainbow jersey, a one-punch Wout van Aert masterclass or a calculated two-punch ploy where Evenepoel pounces on the work of van der Poel and the favourites, the greatest rivals burying the hatchet for just one day suits both their ambitions.
They say it's better to dance with the devil you know than the devil you don't. For Mathieu van der Poel and Wout van Aert - pretending it's all sunshine and rainbows could help both find their pot of gold at the Montreal finish line.
Gavin QuinnCycling Journalist
Gavin Quinn is a cycling journalist and ultra-distance cyclist with a BA in Journalism from Dublin City University. Formerly the Press & Communications Officer for Cycling Ireland, Gavin has worked inside the national team at the World Championships and has reported for the Irish Mirror, Mirror UK, and The42.
His expertise is backed by elite-level access, having interviewed stars like Sam Bennett and Ben Healy, as well as immense personal endurance. In 2025, he completed a 12,000km solo cycle from Ireland to Vietnam, following a 4,600km tour across Europe. From the cobbles of Paris-Roubaix to the gradients of the Tourmalet, Gavin’s writing focuses on the "romance and brutality" of the sport. Having visited 50+ countries, he brings a global, cultural perspective to his coverage of the pro peloton for CyclingUpToDate.
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- Well the Dutch chasing the Dutch was hilarious in the past.abstractengineer26-09-2026
- I’m glad he added that last sentence re MVDP coz it would have been stupid to ignore the possibility of him going with WVA or Remco if one attacks, that would put a lot of pressure to work together on PS & IDTJumpyjohn26-09-2026
- How technical is it? The Glasgow circuit was so technical it made chasing very difficult to organise and was an obvious advantage for an early attacker.Jumpyjohn26-09-2026
- And he was angry once he was leading and had to change bikes due to a flat having no idea how close or far the chase behind was. Not sure there’s steady correlation between his level of anger and performance, it seems to work both ways.Jumpyjohn26-09-2026
- Anything is possible. Most people are making their predictions on very selective assessment, looking only at something like elevation gain, one particular race, current performance, body weight or simply rider preference. Every argument has a counter.argument. Those who looked to the results of Montréal forgot to consider many had ridden Quebec 2 days before. The riders most climbing are least suited and experienced or performing in Classics. The rider least suited (MVDP, even though theoretically Wout should climb even less well) is the one who has shown he can destroy prejudice, not only did he finish just behind Tadej and Bardet at LBL (4200m) beating Pidcock but he won in Glasgow, in front of Tadej and Wout, easily, despite a crash and that had 3600m of elevation gain over a similar distance. But as you say, even MVDP has been caught out not knowing there were still riders ahead of him when sprinting for the line.Jumpyjohn26-09-2026
- I’d guess he’s had more than one, ever, although being at an Ineos in decline about 3 years I guess you can seriously ask that question. However, VAM (assuming it’s not a typo for VMA) assessment is not obligatory and can be done just as well through p/w. And then if you read his exact statement, maybe he just did it at 1500 or 2000m in the past and has now done a session at 2500m?Jumpyjohn25-09-2026
- If the three races thathave taken place already give any insight, it is that the circuit does nit reward the climbers as well as the metres suggest. 97.3 m of climbing per lap is from the three short climbs on which no-one can really be out into major difficulties. That amounts to 1264 m of climbing. The remainder of around 2313 m isn't as hard as it sounds. Add in the technical side of things and the nature of the flatter parts and it can be difficult for the lightweight riders to show their watts per kilo. It's attritional, but that seems to benefit the heavier riders more somehow
Rafionain-Glas25-09-2026 - Looking forward to a great weekend of racing. Haven’t been following much lately but for all the talk there was of interest from other teams in Seixas, it seems awfully quiet. Did I miss something or was it all media buzz making attempts?Mistermaumau25-09-2026
- Always nice when someone making the effort wins. CongratulationsMistermaumau25-09-2026
- I think it looks far faster than it actually was, judging by the bike behind he may have been close to 100km/h but it was a dead straight wide stretch. I’ve seen whole convoys of cars passing at such speeds near downhills when the peloton is at full speed and they still have problems not being in riders’ ways. The speed of the caravan at the Tour sometimes when it passes just inches from spectators is far scarier. For me there are just too many vehicles in races.Mistermaumau25-09-2026
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