ANALYSIS: How Matteo Jorgenson & Sepp Kuss will be key to Visma and Vingegaard's quest to turn the tide against Tadej Pogacar in 2026

Jonas Vingegaard and Team Visma | Lease a Bike head into 2026 facing the same dynamic that defined the previous two Tours: Tadej Pogacar remains the dominant force. The UAE Team Emirates - XRG leader controlled both the 2024 and 2025 editions, and even a deep Visma support line-up could not shift him last July.

In 2025, Visma attempted to pressure Pogacar from the opening days. They toughened stages that held little GC jeopardy, using riders like Matteo Jorgenson to lift the pace and drain Pogacar ahead of the high mountains. The approach frustrated the world champion but ultimately failed to weaken him.

When the race reached the decisive climbs, the accumulated workload boomeranged. Vingegaard’s domestiques paid the price, and Jorgenson in particular struggled through the third week, relying on breakaways to limit the time loss. The issue lay not in commitment, but in durability: Visma’s core helpers arrived without the depth required to sustain that high-intensity strategy for three weeks.

Yet Jorgenson remains central to their 2026 Tour de France plans. The American is likely to be Vingegaard’s primary lieutenant again, which elevates his development as a key concern heading into the new season.

Beating Pogacar across three weeks is now an enormous task — even for Vingegaard. In 2024, injury blunted his form after the Itzulia crash. In 2025, he entered the Tour without setbacks and still could not match Pogacar, who won the race while managing knee pain.

That shift means Visma can no longer expect the parity that existed in 2022 and 2023. Instead, the 2026 campaign must prioritise lifting the entire support group to a higher level.

Jorgenson, at 26, needs the resilience to carry form deep into the final week, but he is only one piece. Sepp Kuss, Simon Yates, Wout van Aert and new signing Davide Piganzoli also need to reach the Grande Boucle with sharper condition and greater consistency.

For Team Visma | Lease a Bike, the path back to contention is likely to come from depth, not from a direct one-to-one battle with Pogacar. UAE’s collective strength has tipped the balance decisively; matching that firepower is the most realistic route to putting Vingegaard in position to contest yellow again.