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DH
Forget for a second about climbing times, and look at some other numbers. Slovenia is a tiny country with a population of approximately 2.1 million people. Rather suddenly, despite its small population and its near complete lack of cycling history or development infrastructure, riders from that country have now won 8 of the last 15 Grand Tours -- and would probably have vastly more if Roglic crashed less-frequently, or Pogacar started more often. And are looking to make it 9 of 16 in a couple weeks. That simply is not plausible. In the long history of Grand Tours, only 6 other nations have won more than 7 -- the smallest of which by-far is 450% more populous than Slovenia, and it took the Swiss half a century to win 10, while Slovenia looks to win more than that in 5 years. If Roglic hadn't crashed in the 2021 TdF which forced the battlefield promotion of Vingegaard, Slovenia would be sitting right now on at least 10 of the last 15 Grand Tours. That is way beyond plausible. Both of those riders are also managing results that are nearly unprecedented at their ages, with neither being in the traditional prime for cycling. That adds to the implausibility of the situation. The odds that two of the greatest cyclists the world has ever seen were both born and developed in the same tiny, non-cycling, country, within 9 years, are simply too long to even consider calculating. The situation does not add up to anything legal, unfortunately. We will probably find out in a decade or two that someone in Slovenia, or working on their behalf, discovered a cocktail that works and doesn't trigger a positive test. There isn't much of a reasonable alternative -- just like there wasn't when Armstrong, also from a country with very little cycling development ( but 150 times the population ) dominated all comers.
22-08-2024 05:59
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+15
DH
Forget for a second about climbing times, and look at some other numbers. Slovenia is a tiny country with a population of approximately 2.1 million people. Rather suddenly, despite its small population and its near complete lack of cycling history or development infrastructure, riders from that country have now won 8 of the last 15 Grand Tours -- and would probably have vastly more if Roglic crashed less-frequently, or Pogacar started more often. And are looking to make it 9 of 16 in a couple weeks. That simply is not plausible. In the long history of Grand Tours, only 6 other nations have won more than 7 -- the smallest of which by-far is 450% more populous than Slovenia, and it took the Swiss half a century to win 10, while Slovenia looks to win more than that in 5 years. If Roglic hadn't crashed in the 2021 TdF which forced the battlefield promotion of Vingegaard, Slovenia would be sitting right now on at least 10 of the last 15 Grand Tours. That is way beyond plausible. Both of those riders are also managing results that are nearly unprecedented at their ages, with neither being in the traditional prime for cycling. That adds to the implausibility of the situation. The odds that two of the greatest cyclists the world has ever seen were both born and developed in the same tiny, non-cycling, country, within 9 years, are simply too long to even consider calculating. The situation does not add up to anything legal, unfortunately. We will probably find out in a decade or two that someone in Slovenia, or working on their behalf, discovered a cocktail that works and doesn't trigger a positive test. There isn't much of a reasonable alternative -- just like there wasn't when Armstrong, also from a country with very little cycling development ( but 150 times the population ) dominated all comers.22-08-2024 05:59