"Van Aert and Pedersen actually stand a chance now": Lack of elevation could turn tables at Paris-Roubaix

The final results of the 2026 Tour of Flanders have been rather predictable, if we look away from the unknown that was Remco Evenepoel's debut. Tadej Pogacar defeated Mathieu van der Poel in a convincing fashion as nobody else really came close. However the Paris-Roubaix is a vastly different race. Unlike De Ronde, the Hell of the North doesn't include any major climbs, only the harshest cobblestones. And anything; from falls and punctures through echelons and dangerous breakaways, can happen over those 258 kilometers.

"It could become more tactical than in the Tour of Flanders," Jeroen Vanbelleghem indicates on Kop Over Kop podcast. The Belgian explains how Wout Van Aert and Mads Pedersen's odds suddenly sky-rocket: "Due to the lack of elevation gain, Van Aert and Pedersen actually stand a chance now. I mean: on Sunday I didn't give them a chance to win, but now we do have a chance ourselves."

There is an additional factor at play in the Hell of the North. "There are crashes and punctures much more frequently, so that will play a part again as well. Teams will have actions and reactions to that too," says Bobbie Traksel.

Gianni Moscon lost the 2021 Roubaix over the combination of both mechanical problems and crashes, while Wout van Aert has had his fair share of bad luck in Paris-Roubaix in recent years, quite possibly losing the entire race to a puncture in 2023. And Tadej Pogacar has his own close-up experience from a crash during his 2025 debut.

Nevertheless, Wout Van Aert remains the third biggest favourite looking forward to this Sunday. However Traksel feels that the Belgian was less impressive in the Tour of Flanders than in the weeks prior at the In Flanders Fields and Dwars door Vlaanderen. "Of course that's strange, but back then we didn't see him compared to those guys either," he says, referring to the absence of Pogacar and Van der Poel then. "I had the feeling that he was slightly less strong."

But that doesn't mean that will be the case on Sunday in Paris-Roubaix. The only question is: how is Van Aert supposed to surprise those two greats? "He just has to manage to get into the final with those guys and dare to ride a sprint. Or ride away when they're looking at each other. The only thing he has to do is get to the front as well and as fresh as possible," Traksel analyzes.

That is exactly what he attempted at the Tour of Flanders, however the steep climbs stood in his way. "I thought he kept himself very fresh and didn't do too much in that group. He kept very quiet there," says Vanbelleghem.

"Pedersen too," Traksel adds. "They have to do that as well, because they are less good at that."

However, the Dutch commentator spotted something that could very well cost Van Aert dearly on Sunday - positioning. "He was still far back, and still pushing and shoving towards the corners... that is definitely a problem. You see that on every cobblestone section; it won't get any better in Roubaix."

"That is why it would be good for him if a selection were made early on," Vanbelleghem points out, to which Traksel agrees. But if the throttle is opened at the front... "If Pogacar and Van der Poel set the pace from last year again, which I expect, those guys will be happy just to be able to follow," Vanbelleghem thinks.

One way to limit the options of Van der Poel and Pogacar could be by anticipating at the sections between the cobblestones. But such a strategy will require for Alpecin's and UAE's domestiques to be gone by that point.

"Whether we will see activity from those two there again, to get off the second-row favourites as quickly as possible, so to speak. As bizarre as it is that you are talking about Van Aert and Pedersen on the second row. But when you're talking about Van der Poel and Pogacar, that is indeed the case."