"They can only win the Tour if…” – Sven Nys dismisses Visma’s Tour de France chances

Sven Nys isn’t buying the idea that Team Visma | Lease a Bike has made a dent in Tadej Pogacar’s armor so far at the 2025 Tour de France. Speaking to Sporza, the Belgian cycling legend called the opening phase of the race a "preparation phase,” and suggested Visma’s attempts to wear down the defending champion have yet to yield results.

"Their idea is to tire Pogacar," said Nys. "They've been trying that all week. But what have those accelerations achieved?"

Not much, in his view.

"Pogacar has expended just as much energy as Vingegaard. Not a drop more, not a drop less. In that respect, the task hasn't quite paid off. Pogacar also enjoys those accelerations."

The frequent bursts of speed haven’t opened any real gaps. Instead, Nys sees a pattern: Pogacar riding within himself, and Vingegaard hanging on. "There's so much acceleration there that there's no counterattack. Vingegaard was just happy to just hold the wheel."

Still, Nys believes Visma is laying the groundwork for something bigger.

"Visma sees these stages as an opportunity to bring the hammer down. Vingegaard might wait until then, unless Pogacar starts showing signs of breaking up before then. Then they'll pounce like a cat."

But unless Pogacar cracks, Nys doesn’t see a path to yellow for last year’s winner.

"I stick with my scenario that it's Visma-Lease a Bike's chance. They can only win the Tour if Pogacar has a bad day and completely fails."