Tadej Pogacar’s secret VO2 max could be as high as 98 as researchers decode his most dominant climbing performances
CyclingThursday, 06 August 2026 at 10:05
Tadej Pogacar could possess a VO2 max as high as 98 ml/kg/min, according to researchers who have attempted to calculate one of cycling’s most closely guarded numbers from four of his most dominant climbing performances.
The analysis was carried out by Pedro L. Valenzuela of the University of Alcala, Sebastian Sitko and Ole Kristian Berg. Their study has been accepted for publication by the International Journal of Sports Physiology and Performance.
Pogacar and UAE Team Emirates – XRG did not supply any private physiological data. Valenzuela, Sitko and Berg instead worked backwards from publicly available information to estimate the aerobic capacity required to produce some of the five-time Tour de France winner’s most extraordinary efforts.
Their calculations placed Pogacar between 94 and 98 ml/kg/min, with an average estimate of 96. Anything above 90 is considered exceptional even among elite endurance athletes.
The figure remains an estimate rather than a confirmed laboratory measurement, but it offers another possible explanation for the sustained climbing performances that have separated Pogacar from the rest of the peloton.
Four performances used to calculate Pogacar’s range
The researchers selected Plateau de Beille and Isola 2000 from the 2024 Tour de France, Peyragudes from the 2025 Tour and the Passo di Ganda from that year’s Il Lombardia.
Their estimates for the four efforts were 96, 97, 94 and 98 ml/kg/min respectively. The climbs lasted between approximately 17 and 40 minutes and covered different competitive demands, from high-altitude Grand Tour stages to a mountain time trial and a one-day Monument.
Peyragudes provided a largely uninterrupted individual effort against the clock. Plateau de Beille and Isola 2000 came after hours of racing during the Tour, while Passo di Ganda extended the analysis beyond July and into Il Lombardia.
Factors including the estimated combined mass of Pogacar and his bike, aerodynamic drag, rolling resistance and the characteristics of each climb were included in the mathematical model.
His exact weight and power data on those days were not available, leaving an unavoidable margin of uncertainty. Pogacar’s physiological figures remain tightly protected, with only occasional fragments reaching the public.
He previously revealed that his Zone 2 output was approximately 340 watts, itself an extraordinary figure for a controlled endurance intensity. Rather than relying on a laboratory test, the study used performances produced after the fatigue, positioning battles and repeated changes of pace found in professional racing.
Chris Froome comparison gives model a reference point
Valenzuela, Sitko and Berg checked their method against Chris Froome, whose physiological data have previously been made public. Froome recorded a VO2 max of 84.4 ml/kg/min in laboratory testing. The researchers’ model estimated him at 85.3, a close result that supported the range calculated for Pogacar.
The comparison is particularly relevant after Froome offered his own assessment of the Slovenian’s climbing during an appearance with Adam Blythe. “What I was doing for 10 minutes, Tadej is doing for more than 40 minutes now,” Froome said.
Pogacar’s most damaging performances have repeatedly come across long climbs rather than through one short acceleration. He has sustained that level after several hours of racing, both deep into Grand Tours and in the closing stages of Monuments.
Plateau de Beille became one of the defining performances of his 2024 Tour victory. Isola 2000 followed during the same race, while Peyragudes showed the same level in a mountain time trial. Passo di Ganda added another reference point at Il Lombardia, under the sharper tactical demands of a one-day race.
Pogacar’s coach questions the estimates
A VO2 max close to 96 would not, on its own, account for Pogacar’s success. Norwegian rider Oskar Svendsen recorded 96.7 ml/kg/min in a laboratory test before becoming junior world time trial champion, yet never established himself among cycling’s elite.
Aerobic capacity does not account for recovery, efficiency, tactics or the ability to repeat major efforts across three weeks. Pogacar combines his apparent physiological ceiling with acceleration, durability and the capacity to produce decisive power late in races.
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There is also disagreement over whether performance-based models may overstate his figures. Pogacar’s coach Javier Sola has argued that such estimates can exaggerate power because they cannot perfectly account for aerodynamics, equipment and the precise conditions of each climb. Sola has also said Pogacar has not undergone a formal VO2 max test under his supervision and rejected the suggestion that the figure is around 100.
Without private testing data from Pogacar or UAE Team Emirates – XRG, the 94-98 range cannot be confirmed. For now, it remains a calculated estimate built from four performances that already sit among the strongest climbing displays of Pogacar’s career.
Kieran WoodDeputy Editor-in-Chief
Kieran Wood is a sports journalist based in Wales and has been active in journalism since 2022. He regularly contributes to DartsNews.com and CyclingUpToDate.com, where he covers professional cycling and darts. In cycling, his work includes liveblogs from major races, including the Tour de France, the Giro d’Italia, and La Vuelta a España, alongside race reports and analysis. He has also conducted interviews with professional riders.
His reporting spans the full racing calendar, from one-day classics to stage races, with a focus on accurate, real-time coverage and clear contextual analysis. For statistics, results, and historical context, he regularly uses resources such as ProCyclingStats. To support reporting on rider activity and training context where relevant, he also references Strava.
In his work, Kieran places strong emphasis on careful sourcing, editorial accuracy, and updating articles as new, verified information becomes available.
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- > All in all, these estimates look so confusing. Maybe they aren’t that confusing. Once you account for bike weight and aerodynamics, it’s still possible that Pantani had to put in more effort than Pogačar, even though he climbed slower.averagecyclist06-08-2026
- Before 2024, it was estimated Pogacar's VO2max was in the range of 90, based on his performances. I've read Vingegaard's VO2max was oficially calculated at 97, when his was 17. It seems indeed this metric is not solely responsable for a cyclist performance. According to Na1chaca on X, Pantani's 1997 performance on Alpe d'Huez has an aSLP of 710, while Pogacar's same climb this Tour has 693. Also, Velora Cycling claimed on X their equipment-adjusted model put Pantani's 1995 performance on Alpe d'Huez 14 seconds ahead of Pogacar. All in all, these estimates look so confusing.
raven06-08-2026 - He has to be around the 100 mark. He is not tired after a effort that beat Pantani's 60% record. Also he is repeating those effort day after day by attacking at 9 w/kg+abstractengineer06-08-2026
- The yellow jersey waited for Demi to make her move then followed her wheel. Meantime Demi was watching both Kasia (who she knew would go early) and the yellow jersey (to see if she would blink first), and only just made it to the line.Hills3306-08-2026
- Agreed withy Crashjames. The writer of the article, the Deputy Editor in chief of CyclingUtDate we are told "emphasises careful sourcing' (L Armstrong, really?) and "updates as new informtion is received" ( re Iliac surgery as reported in EscapeCollective - we'll see if an update is forthcoming eh?). You probably won't be concerned but your publication has lost a reader over this.Clomo06-08-2026
- All you have to do is make one more idiotic 'I love Pogi' comment and you will be the Pogi-Fan-GOAT ! I sure hope he doesn't have to take out a restraining order on you!frieders306-08-2026
- If you understood her post race comments this was her only option ! She studied and recon'd the final and knew she had to go from far out as she ZERO chance going head to head in a short sprint she never wins!frieders306-08-2026
- Bruyneel and LA Doper both failed to mention PFP has had iliac artery surgery twice so this TT position was a compromise developed in the wind tunnel that didn't stress her. These two clowns should do their homeowrk before bashing someone !frieders306-08-2026
- Why then did you open this article?Ride197406-08-2026
- I reckon Demi will have a crack at Reusser with Kasia right with her. My dark horse Isabella Holgrem.
Davide06-08-2026
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