The official route contains slightly more climbing than Gilbert’s estimate, but remains considerably less demanding than the course used in Rwanda. Its repeated shorter ascents, fast descents and long stretches suited to sustained power offer Evenepoel a different challenge from the high-mountain terrain on which Pogacar controlled the Tour.
Gilbert expects Pogacar-Evenepoel showdown
Pogacar has won the past two World Championships through long-range attacks. He launched more than 100 kilometres from the finish in Zurich in 2024, then again took control from distance in Kigali. Evenepoel was left chasing on both occasions, eventually settling for silver behind the Slovenian in Rwanda.
Gilbert expects the same two riders to dominate the Montreal race, but believes the order of their attacks could prove decisive. “Pogacar and Evenepoel are the big favourites,” he said. “I think one of them will become world champion. It will depend on who attacks first and usually in a race like that, it is… Remco.”
Evenepoel could not match Pogacar across three weeks in France, but still completed his best
Tour de France and reinforced the qualities Gilbert believes will be decisive in Montreal. “He has become even stronger,” Gilbert said. “He is impressive. On the descents and on the flat, he was unbeatable.”
The Belgian’s biggest one-day victories have repeatedly come through sustained attacks rather than waiting for a reduced sprint. Montreal’s less mountainous route should allow him to use those strengths without having to survive the kind of prolonged climbing that separated the pair during the Tour.
Pogacar put in one of the greatest rides of all time in Kigali to win the World Championships for a second time
Wout van Aert strengthens Belgian hand
Gilbert also highlighted the presence of
Wout van Aert in Belgium’s plans. “On top of that, he will also have Wout van Aert alongside him,” he said.
Van Aert gives Belgium another rider capable of surviving deep into a selective World Championship and prevents rival teams from concentrating solely on Evenepoel.
His speed in a reduced group would also make him dangerous if the expected Pogacar-Evenepoel attack never creates a decisive gap. Belgium can therefore approach the finale with more than one credible winning route, rather than committing every rider to an early pursuit of the defending champion.
Pogacar will arrive in Montreal having beaten Evenepoel at the Tour and at the previous two World Championships. Gilbert believes the Canadian course gives his compatriot a better opportunity to strike first and stop that sequence reaching three.