Stage 19 of the Giro is the queen stage - where
Jonas Vingegaard will try to
defend his pink jersey - with 151 kilometers on the menu in the Dolomites. The stage is short, yes, but so difficult that there is no getting around it. Not only are the climbs very difficult, but they come in quick succession and also see altitude enter the picture.
The first kilometers are rolling, allowing riders to jump in the breakaway, although no categorized climb means that we can see a wide variety of figures trying to anticipate the peloton in to the mountains. 4900 meters of climbing, and they mostly begin with the Passo Duran.
Passo Duran climb profile
The first climb of the day is equivalent to the Alpe d'Huez, featuring 12 kilometers at over 8%. A short descent leads directly into Coi which is 5.8Km at 9.3%; and another short descent leads directly onto the third climb of the day which is the Forcela Staulanza (6.3Km; 6.7%).
But these climbs, despite their difficulty, will likely only be used to create fatigue into the fourth one. The mythical Passo Giau returns, and will be climbed from Selva di Cadora, it's hardest side. The climb is 9.8 kilometers long, averages 9.3% and summits at 2226 meters of altitude, bring in every aspect of what makes a climb hard.
The weather in the region is also often instable, with the temperatures being inevitably cold at the summit. The riders take on a very fast descent and go directly into the Passo Falzarego, which is 10 kilometers long at 5.4%.
But the climb can make bigger gaps than one could expect, taking into consideration the fatigue factor, right after the Giau specially; and also its altitude with over 2100 meters at the summit.
The riders descend back down over 1000 meters but the stage does not end there. Instead, there is still a summit finish at Piani di Pezzé, a shorter climb but one that is incredibly steep. 5 kilometers at 9.6% will bring the stage to a proper end.
Passo Falzarego climb profile
Piani di Pezzè climb profile
The Favourites
The favourite to win this stage is Jonas Vingegaard, and there's no major analysis that is necessary. There have been four mountain stages, all four have been won by the Dane without any real tension. He is by far the strongest climber in the race and there's nothing to suggest that will change. Furthermore this is the hardest stage of the race, in which even if a breakaway gets a good lead, the day's difficulties will naturally bring the best to the very front.
Don't expect tactical racing. If the breakaway only goes up the road on the Passo Duran, then the likes of
Giulio Ciccone,
Einer Rubio and co. will be in the breakaway once again chasing a win as they have all race long. GC outsiders in that scenario will all try to go in front, as it's often more beneficial then being in the peloton and having no teammates to change the pace in a Visma-led group.
Chris Harper, David de la Cruz, Jan Hirt, Johannes Kulset, Igor Arrieta and Wout Poels are contenders. It will take a top climber on their best day however to succeed. I would say it makes full sense for Egan Bernal to give it a go too, it's a perfect day for him, but INEOS have raced super conservatively - like they did in the Team Sky days - and I think they want him to stay with Thymen Arensman so as to try and protect the podium.
GC wise well, what can change? What I can say is it will depend on the rider's feelings on the day, as it's the kind of stage that suits
Felix Gall, Thymen Arensman and
Jai Hindley equally. But I do believe Arensman will be the one that will be under pressure the most, and the gaps are small for the podium to change.
I expect Afonso Eulálio to lose his fifth place to Derek Gee and Michael Storer, whilst for the white jersey it will be tight. The long and constant climbs will weight on him, besides today's crash, whilst the Visma-fueled Davide Piganzoli can do wonders here I am sure of.
Prediction Giro d'Italia 2026 stage 19:
*** Jonas Vingegaard
** Giulio Ciccone, Einer Rubio, Chris Harper
* Felix Gall, Jai Hindley, Thymen Arensman, Egan Bernal, Derek Gee, David de la Cruz, Johannes Kulset, Wout Poels, Igor Arrieta
Pick: Jonas Vingegaard
How: Another dominating solo win.
Original: Rúben Silva