DISCUSSION - Tour de France Stage 18 - What if Pogacar is ill? The Alps could look very different

Richard Carapaz claimed an emotional victory on Stage 18 of the Tour de France, finally converting weeks of attacking racing into success. The EF Education-EasyPost rider launched the decisive move on the final climb to Orcières-Merlette, riding clear of his fellow escapees to take a memorable solo win. Mauro Schmid finished second after winning the sprint for the remaining podium places ahead of Matteo Jorgenson.

The 185.2 km stage from Voiron to Orcières-Merlette featured several climbs before the summit finish, making it a prime opportunity for a breakaway. The fight to get into that move proved as intense as expected.

An early five-rider escape including Jonas Abrahamsen, Nicolas Vinokurov, Lewis Askey, Aaron Gate and Mathis Le Berre was quickly reeled in before the first major climb. From there, attacks came relentlessly, with EF Education-EasyPost among the most active teams as Carapaz and Ben Healy repeatedly tried to force their way into the decisive move.

On the Côte d'Engins, UAE Team Emirates - XRG suffered an early setback as Florian Vermeersch, Tim Wellens and Brandon McNulty were dropped. At the summit, Valentin Paret-Peintre edged Carapaz to collect the maximum mountain points.

A strong breakaway eventually formed featuring Thymen Arensman, Matteo Jorgenson, Felix Engelhardt, Tobias Halland Johannessen, Pablo Castrillo, Nicolas Breuillard and Mads Pedersen. The race remained aggressive behind, however, with several more riders bridging across, including Carapaz, Mauro Schmid, Egan Bernal, Raúl García Pierna and Mathias Vacek.

Pedersen strengthened his lead in the points classification by taking maximum points at the intermediate sprint, extending his advantage over Jasper Philipsen to 32 points, while Paret-Peintre continued collecting mountain points to close the gap to Tadej Pogacar in the King of the Mountains competition.

The decisive selection came inside the final 50 kilometres. Schmid, Jorgenson, Tobias Halland Johannessen and García Pierna moved clear before Carapaz and Paret-Peintre joined them. Behind, Arensman worked for teammate Bernal but was unable to bring the gap back.

The six leaders reached the final climb together, where several probing attacks failed before Carapaz launched his winning acceleration. Paret-Peintre initially responded, with Schmid and Jorgenson also making contact, but when the Ecuadorian attacked again, nobody could follow.

Carapaz steadily increased his advantage all the way to the finish, securing his second Tour de France stage victory after his success in Superdévoluy in 2024. Schmid beat Jorgenson in the sprint for second, while Paret-Peintre finished fourth, narrowly missing the result required to take over the polka-dot jersey.

Carlos Silva from CyclingUpToDate shared his opinion immediately after the stage finished.

Today there are three main topics that need to be addressed. I will start with Richard Carapaz's victory, which was a win built on determination, fighting spirit and the refusal to stop trying. Carapaz had already come close to glory twice at this Tour de France, but on both occasions Tadej Pogačar denied him the victory.

Today, EF Education-EasyPost took advantage of the fact that the GC teams were clearly saving energy ahead of the Alpine double-header at Alpe d'Huez. They were one of the teams that pushed the hardest and fought the most to get into the breakaway, so seeing the Ecuadorian finally raise his arms at the finish was a fair and fully deserved reward.

A note must also be made about the complete failure of Netcompany INEOS. They had Thymen Arensman and Egan Bernal in the breakaway, but when the decisive move came, they completely missed it. Neither rider was able to respond, and they were left with a gap that they would never manage to close.

Finally, a word about what is happening at UAE Team Emirates - XRG. Brandon McNulty abandoned the race, but apart from Felix Grobschartner, Isaac del Toro and Tadej Pogacar, almost every other rider appears to be affected by an illness or virus that is limiting the team.

The question is: to what extent could the yellow jersey itself be affected? We know that viruses have an incubation period and do not always show immediate symptoms. Hopefully everything is fine with the Slovenian and his teammates, because what everyone wants to see is every rider competing at their best level and at their strongest on the bike.

But it does make me wonder... what would today's stage have looked like, and what would the two Alpe d'Huez stages look like, if Jonas Vingegaard had not abandoned the race after his crash?

Team Visma | Lease a Bike may not be the unstoppable machine we have seen in previous years, but they are still capable of causing serious damage. And if the UAE team is currently weakened, how would they have been able to support and protect Pogacar against a full-strength Visma attack?

Ruben Silva from CyclingUpToDate analysed everything that unfolded on the roads of France and shared his thoughts after the stage.

A breakaway stage, so the battle once again proved to be quite an exciting one and enjoyable to watch. Tadej Pogacar has no need, but he can't seem to help himself and by following wheels at the head of the peloton during climbs, he continuously prolongs these battles for as long as he likes. But with the climbs present on the profile, there was no preventing a strong group from going up the road.

Mads Pedersen, through his climbing abilities, has secured himself a spot in the breakaway and captured a lot of points once again to distance himself from Jasper Philipsen, a very important development in the fight for the green jersey.

The pressure for a few teams begins to become desperate, as this was the race's final breakaway stage. Due to the lack of a Visma to attack UAE and the illness bout in the Emirati team, they may actually not chase on Friday or Saturday, allowing the pure climbers another opportunity. But again, that fully depends on what Tadej Pogacar wants, as he looks to be racing this Tour like a videogame thus far - that is unlikely to change.

Up front a tactical stage, but with enough terrain for the strongest to make the difference. You can't blame his rivals, from the breakaway there were early attacks and attempts to distance Carapaz who was the clear man to beat in the group, but the EF rider is on terrific form and had his best legs - he closed the dangerous attacks and managed to enter the final climb in front.

Not a brutal climb, but in the context of an all-day breakaway effort, it was possible to make differences. Carapaz thrived, he was the strongest and attack to a well-deserved victory. EF saved their race - the same can't be said of quality teams who are still having absolutely nothing to show for in this Tour such as INEOS and Movistar.

In the GC group I wasn't expecting any attacks, still BORA did set a good pace up the climb just in case, but in modern cycling it is just so rare to see the best GC riders have a bad day that ultimately today proved to be irrelevant.

Javier Rampe from CiclismoAlDia closely followed the action on the French roads and shared his thoughts on what he witnessed during the day.

Richard Carapaz is perhaps one of the riders who hides the least within the peloton. The Ecuadorian is always willing to show himself, to attack, even when victory seems unlikely. He admitted at the finish that winning becomes more difficult every year, but with his character it is impossible not to be happy when he finally succeeds.

"The Locomotive of Carchi" launched his attack in the final kilometres of the climb to Orcières-Merlette, right where the gradients become steepest, distancing his fellow escapees. Valentin Paret-Peintre tried to follow his wheel, but paid a heavy price, so much so that he lost the lead in the mountains classification, although he will continue to wear the polka-dot jersey for now.

The Frenchman crossed the line in fourth place, behind Matteo Jorgenson, surrendering the lead in the King of the Mountains standings but not the jersey itself, as Tadej Pogačar must continue to wear the yellow jersey as the race leader.

We now arrive in the Alps, beginning with the legendary climb where Luis Ocaña first broke Eddy Merckx, with the feeling that the race is already decided. Even more so now that Jonas Vingegaard is no longer in the race.

From a Spanish point of view, Movistar Team will need to carry out a serious review of its first two Grand Tours of the season. The Spanish team has failed to establish a true leader, whether because of poor planning of the race calendar or simply bad luck through illness.

Without a clear leader, the reality is that they have exhausted virtually all of their riders in breakaways as if they were a wildcard team, wearing down riders such as Raúl García Pierna, Pablo Castrillo and Einer Rubio, who now appear completely drained after repeatedly being instructed from the team car to make every breakaway. What is the point?

Pascal Michiels of RadsportAktuell shared his thoughts on the day's racing on the French roads after the finish.

Richard Carapaz’s victory at Orcières-Merlette was not merely deserved; it was the triumph of a rider who refused to accept that patience was his only option.

For much of the finale, Mauro Schmid appeared to be the second-strongest rider in the breakaway. More importantly, he seemed to have the situation under control. When Valentin Paret-Peintre rode across to Carapaz, Schmid initially let them suffer a bit up front. A little later, he appeared to invite Matteo Jorgenson to do the same job on Carapaz's next attack.

That hesitation exposed the truth: Jorgenson was already close to empty. By the time Schmid realised that nobody else could bring Carapaz back, the gap had become too large. Schmid still finished second, 45 seconds behind the Ecuadorian, but the result does not tell the full tactical story.

Carapaz, meanwhile, never looked back. One of the most colourful and instinctive riders in the peloton attacked once, attacked again and then delivered the decisive third acceleration. There was no calculation, no waiting for cooperation and no fear of blowing up.

That is precisely why Carapaz remains such a compelling rider. He does not always win, but he always races. At Orcières-Merlette, aggression finally received its reward: a magnificent solo victory from the strongest and bravest rider in the breakaway.

Valentin Paret-Peintre was the day’s biggest loser. He cracked while trying to follow Carapaz and will almost certainly pay for it tomorrow on the road to Alpe d’Huez in the battle for the KOM jersey.

Richard Carapaz finally got the victory he had been chasing throughout this Tour. After twice being denied by Tadej Pogacar, the Ecuadorian made the most of a stage that suited the breakaway and proved once again why he is one of the most aggressive riders in the peloton. EF Education-EasyPost believed in the stage from kilometre zero and were rewarded for it.

If EF leave the day celebrating, the same cannot be said for several other teams. Netcompany INEOS missed the decisive move despite having two strong cards to play, while Movistar Team continue to spend enormous amounts of energy in breakaways without anything tangible to show for it.

Another topic that cannot be ignored is UAE Team Emirates - XRG. Brandon McNulty's abandonment and the apparent illness affecting several teammates raise questions ahead of the decisive days in the Alps. Pogacar still looks comfortable, but it is fair to wonder how much support he will have if the race becomes more demanding around him.

The stage itself delivered exactly what many expected: a relentless fight for the breakaway, a deserved winner and no changes among the GC favourites. Whether that remains the case over the next two days is another story, because the Alps have a habit of exposing any weakness that has gone unnoticed until now.