ANALYSIS | What Tadej Pogacar must do to stop Mathieu van der Poel at Paris-Roubaix 2026

Tadej Pogacar is already a legend of modern cycling, but Paris-Roubaix remains the one Monument missing from his palmarès.

The UAE Team Emirates - XRG leader arrives at the 2026 edition as one of the standout favourites alongside Mathieu van der Poel, having already won Milano-Sanremo and the Tour of Flanders this spring. A victory on Sunday would complete the full set.

And yet, one question continues to dominate the build-up. How do you beat Van der Poel on the cobbles?

Pogacar’s presence at the front of every major race has become normal. Not long ago, riders built for three-week Grand Tours were not expected to compete on terrain like this.

Milano-Sanremo was once defined by sprint finishes. The Tour of Flanders belonged to cobbled specialists. Pogacar has changed that.

Through aggressive racing, strength and tactical intelligence, he has become a contender everywhere, including on the pavé. Even at just 66 kilograms, he has proven he can match the very best on these roads. That was clear at Paris-Roubaix 2025, where he took on Van der Poel directly and was only distanced after a crash on the Mérignies à Avelin sector.

Mathieu van der Poel remains the reference point. The Dutchman has dominated the cobbled Monuments in recent seasons and arrives at Roubaix chasing a fourth consecutive victory. Even in 2025, when Pogacar pushed him closest, Van der Poel still looked the strongest rider in the race.

That is why, despite Pogacar’s perfect record this spring, the doubt remains. Can he beat Van der Poel on this terrain?

Paris-Roubaix has traditionally favoured bigger, more powerful riders. Last year underlined that reality. Riders such as Mads Pedersen, Wout van Aert, Stefan Bissegger, Fred Wright, Jasper Philipsen, Filippo Ganna and Biniam Girmay — all significantly heavier than Pogacar — were expected to dominate on the cobbles.

Instead, Pogacar was the one riding at the front. That performance reshaped expectations, but it also highlighted the challenge. Matching Van der Poel is one thing. beating him is another.

If Pogacar is to win Paris-Roubaix, the race cannot be allowed to follow a standard script. UAE Team Emirates - XRG will need to make it hard from the very beginning, just as they did at the Tour of Flanders. A high tempo, constant pressure and controlled aggression will be key.

From Compiègne, the plan would be to keep the speed high and avoid allowing any dangerous breakaway to settle. Riders like Vermeersch and Molano will be crucial in positioning Pogacar before the Arenberg Forest, the sector that traditionally marks the start of the decisive phase.

From there, the race must be forced open. An attack in Arenberg, followed by a second move in Warlaing à Brillon — where Pogacar already holds the Strava KOM — and a final effort on Mons-en-Pévèle could create the separation needed.

The objective is clear. Arrive alone in the Roubaix velodrome.

Because if Pogacar reaches Roubaix with Van der Poel, the outcome becomes far more uncertain. A sprint between the two would favour the Dutchman, who has repeatedly shown his ability to finish races off in decisive moments.

For Pogacar, the path to victory is therefore simple in theory, but brutally difficult in practice. He has to go early, go hard, and go alone.

Pogacar has already redefined what is possible in modern cycling. Winning Paris-Roubaix would take that even further, completing the set of Monuments and confirming his status across every terrain the sport can offer. But to do it, he must solve the one problem that has defined the cobbled Classics in recent years. Mathieu van der Poel.