“Vingegaard has already raised the white flag” – Bakelants scoffs at Pogacar’s rivals chances at the Tour de France
Cycling
Jonas Vingegaard may be a
two-time Tour de France winner and the man who dethroned Tadej Pogacar in 2022
and 2023, but heading into the 2025 edition, one former pro believes the
Slovenian has already won the psychological war.
In his latest column for Het
Laatste Nieuws, Jan Bakelants, who recently poured cold water on Remco
Evenepoel’s GC hopes, has now cast doubt on Vingegaard’s chances of reclaiming
yellow.
“Let me start with a rather
uncontroversial observation about the past Dauphiné,” Bakelants wrote. “As far
as the value ratios between the classification riders for the Tour are
concerned, little to nothing has changed that is remarkable, except that the
differences between the three top riders have been further deepened and even
secured with an extra retaining wall.”
The message is clear: Pogacar is
a level above, and any illusion of parity with Vingegaard or Evenepoel is
fading.
Pogacar dominated the Dauphiné
with three stage wins and the overall title, barely looking troubled, with his
only wobble coming during the time trial. Vingegaard, by contrast, returned
from a long lay-off and finished second, but his performance offered little
encouragement to Bakelants.
Pogacar's form looks ominous in 2025
It is not just the fact that
Vingegaard lost, it is the fact that Pogacar did not look to be remotely
pushing himself during any of his efforts.
“I hear between the lines that Team
Visma | Lease a Bike are trying to convince themselves that things will still
turn out well with a view to winning the Tour,” Bakelants continued. “But the
friendly way in which Jonas Vingegaard dealt with the supremacy of Tadej
Pogacar and the way he raced seemed more like raising the white flag than
showing that it can still be an exciting Tour.”
It’s a brutal assessment, and not
just aimed at the Dane. Bakelants previously dismantled Evenepoel’s prospects
as well, saying, “Remco is not a candidate for winner at the moment. The gap to
Vingegaard and Pogacar seems to be even bigger than last year. The difference
with those two is too big. It is still two and a half weeks until the start,
but miracles do not exist.”
He also questioned Soudal – Quick-Step’s
strategy of talking up Evenepoel’s Tour ambitions: “The line between trust the
process and naivety is often very thin. It is not bad to raise the white flag
now about winning the Tour.”
Now, it seems Visma are guilty of
the same in Bakelants’ eyes, offering hope, but not evidence, that Vingegaard
can challenge. However, there is no doubt that Vingegaard will have a stronger
team around him than Evenepoel, who will be without Mikel Landa this July.
Vingegaard will be supported at the Tour by many of his Dauphine squad, and
also the star duo of the recent Giro: Wout van Aert and Simon Yates.
The Belgian analyst also dismissed
the idea that Pogacar’s spring Classics campaign would leave him vulnerable
late in the Tour. “It is said that Pogacar will not have the ideal preparation
for the Tour in his legs by riding the classics in the spring, and that he
could encounter a bad day in the third week of a major tour. But as it looks
now, only a crash or serious material failure can change this direction.”
“I also don't believe that
Pogacar needs the ideal Tour preparation to win,” Bakelants added. “Even with a
sub-optimal preparation, the difference is huge. He rode the final climb to
Combloux a lot faster than Vingegaard did in his supersonic time trial in the
2023 Tour. A statement.”
With less than three weeks to go
until the Tour de France begins, Pogacar has already laid down a dominant
marker. For Bakelants, the 2025 edition already has a favourite, not just in
form, but in control of the narrative.
Fin MajorCycling Journalist
Fin Major is a UK-based writer at CyclingUpToDate and has been part of the team since 2024. He is the site’s main writer for FAQs and evergreen explainers and has written around 2,000 pieces for the platform. Alongside this work, he focuses on in-depth analysis and covers the biggest races on the calendar, including the Tour de France, the Giro d’Italia, and La Vuelta a España, providing clear context around performance trends, tactics, and key storylines.
In his reporting, Fin uses reputable data sources such as ProCyclingStats for results, statistics, and historical context. He places strong emphasis on careful sourcing, editorial accuracy, and updating articles promptly when new, verified information becomes available. Outside of writing, Fin is an active cyclist, which supports his practical understanding of the sport and its demands.
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