Roglic built his 2026 season around the Vuelta and the chance to move clear of Roberto Heras with a fifth overall victory. His latest message also fits a long-established pattern of playing down expectations before major races, while his Vuelta record includes several strong campaigns after badly disrupted preparation.
Roglic reaches Monaco after Vuelta preparation was turned upside down
Roglic made the Vuelta his only Grand Tour target of the season, staying away from both the Giro d'Italia and Tour de France while preparing for another attempt at the race he has already won four times.
His programme was deliberately light. After racing through the spring and early summer, his final competitive block was supposed to come at the Clasica San Sebastian and Vuelta a Burgos before the Vuelta began.
That plan disappeared when Roglic was hit by a driver while training. He later shared an image showing heavy bruising to the back of his leg and withdrew from both races, describing the setback at the time as "not the best scenario".
The full extent of the injuries and the exact date of the collision were never publicly detailed, but the uncertainty became serious enough for Gazzetta dello Sport journalist Ciro Scognamiglio to report that Roglic's chances of starting had fallen to "fifty-fifty".
Those doubts have since been removed. Roglic is in
Red Bull – BORA – hansgrohe's confirmed eight-man Vuelta squad and the team still identify the general classification as an objective, albeit with clear caution over what his disrupted preparation will allow.
Lead sports director Sven Vanthourenhout said Red Bull's main aim would be to win stages, with Roglic's GC challenge described as the team's second major objective because his preparation had been "very different from what we originally anticipated after his crash".
Roglic has struck a similarly measured tone, saying before the race that winning the Vuelta four times was already beyond anything he could have imagined and that he did not want to place extra pressure on himself.
Disrupted Vuelta build-ups are hardly new territory for Roglic
This is far from the first time Roglic has reached the Vuelta after an interrupted build-up. His 2021 title came after a Tour de France ruined by crashes and injuries. In 2024, he again arrived in Spain after crashing out of the Tour, only to recover sufficiently to win the Vuelta for a fourth time. His 2022 challenge also followed another difficult Tour and only ended when he crashed out while sitting second overall late in the race.
The circumstances are not identical this time. Roglic has not had the natural racing rhythm that comes from competing at the Tour immediately beforehand, and the accident instead removed the very races that had been selected to sharpen him for Spain.
There is also a familiar pattern in the messaging. Roglic has repeatedly kept expectations low before major races, offering little away about his condition before the road provides a clearer answer. His latest Instagram post stops well short of ruling out a GC challenge. What it does confirm is that reaching Monaco required a very different final preparation from the one Red Bull had originally planned.
Pogacar was already the biggest obstacle to a record fifth win
Even with a perfect preparation, Roglic would not have arrived at the 2026 Vuelta as the favourite. Tadej Pogacar's decision to return to the race for the first time since 2019 changed the competitive picture long before Roglic's training crash. The five-time Tour de France winner would have represented an enormous obstacle to Roglic even with an uninterrupted build-up.
The connection between the two Slovenians and the Vuelta goes back to Roglic's first overall victory in 2019. Pogacar was then a 20-year-old Grand Tour debutant, finishing third behind Roglic and Alejandro Valverde while winning three stages.
Seven years later, Roglic returns as a four-time champion chasing sole possession of the all-time record he currently shares with Roberto Heras, while Pogacar comes back looking for the one Grand Tour title still missing from his palmares. Roglic's disrupted preparation has added another major question to a challenge that was already formidable before the crash.
The first serious mountain tests will offer the clearest indication of how much the lost preparation has cost him. Until then, Roglic arrives in Monaco with his record fifth title bid still alive, but with simply making the start already described by the four-time winner as a victory in itself.