Roglic, Onley, Carapaz, Gall... - The Vuelta's favourites to join Pogacar on the podium analyzed
CyclingMonday, 24 August 2026 at 16:00
Tadej Pogacar is the main favourite to win the 2026 Vuelta a España, but there will be several riders capable of finishing on the final podium under regular circumstances. On the CyclingUpToDate podcast, Rúben Silva and Kieran Wood analyzed the likes of Primoz Roglic, Oscar Onley, Richard Carapaz and Felix Gall.
On paper, both agreed that Felix Gall was, at the start line in Monaco, favourite number two. The Decathlon CMA CGM Team rider finished second to Jonas Vingegaard at the Giro d'Italia, as well as second on all five mountain stages the Frenchman won.
"I think I agree with you there that coming into the race he probably was my second, or favourite fou second if you put it that way. But I expected him to be a little bit closer yesterday," Wood said.
On stage 2, the explosive finale into Manosque Gall and João Almeida lost 18 seconds, not a crucial loss but one that is seen as a clear mistake "I know it's not the ideal stage for him, but losing time was far from ideal".
Can Primoz Roglic show his best legs?
Red Bull - BORA - hansgrohe has Primoz Roglic in the lead, a former four-time winner of the Vuelta. But the Slovenian's 2026 has been anything but consistent in the approach to the Spanish Grand Tour.
"I think Roglic is a rider that's well adapted to this stage (4, ed.), because I think endurance is at this point in time Roglic's biggest adversary," Silva argued. "Whereas the other riders, you see a Pogacar and sometimes the tactics don't even make a lot of sense, it's 'just push all day long, make everyone tired, because you will not be as tired towards the end'. I think that in those short efforts, we've seen this a lot in the past in Vuelta, Roglic does well. The stages with one climb, one effort..."
The Red Bull leader will face several high mountain stages however, with brutal mountain days on stages 9 and 20, amongst others, featuring around 5000 climbing meters and brutal summit finishes.
"But Roglic, he's a wild card for sure. His form heading into Vuelta is a bit of a mystery, but I think that the crash that he suffered a few weeks ago - or maybe a month ago already at this point - was maybe worse than initially came across. Because I think that in the pre-race interview, he talked about losing three weeks of training, and that's a lot."
"The time that he would have spent training, he spent recovering from the injury, and I think maybe towards the end of the race, his form may be a little better. I think that towards the start, in these first mountain stages, we're going to see some fragility from his side".
Oscar Onley to lead INEOS back into a Grand Tour podium?
Netcompany INEOS are also contenders for the podium, having in Oscar Onley a strong candidate after his performance at the Vuelta a Burgos, and what he's shown at the 2025 Tour de France still in the colours of Team Picnic PostNL.
"With Onley, I think it's a really good plus that Carlos Rodriguez seems to have started strongly," Wood stated. "I think the best of the GC that's not Pogacar. So I think that could be a really strong double attack from INEOS, if Rodriguez keeps it up as well, which could benefit Onley in return".
Silva on the other hand questioned why the British team did not select young American rider Andrew August, the rider who earned the team its first GC win this past week at the Czech Tour.
"He won the Czech tour, the team's first GC win of the year, which was a surprising stat. But at the Czech tour, he was supported by Jack Haig, and he was supported by Embret Svestad-Bardsenf. Those were his two mountain men at the Czech tour, and they're both at Vuelta. Why is August not here? August won a stage at Itzulia, he won a stage at Vuelta a Valenciana..."
The American rider is departing for Pinarello - Q36.5 Pro Cycling Team at the end of this season, and Wood argued this move could be the reason for August's non-selection. Silva on the other hand sees no excuse, when the team is in need of a quality Grand Tour after a disastrous Tour de France.
"He's leaving the team as well, they can't really use that long-term planning [excuse] for him. Why is August not here, backing up Onley, who's another very legitimate podium contender? [...] Your rider is leaving, but he is part of your team. He is motivated, he is in form. Have him at the Vuelta. You don't even need to put the pressure on him, put him as a domestique for Oscar Onley, for Ben Turner... Give him some chances in the breakaway..."
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Carapaz the wildcard in the podium fight
"I don't think fatigue is as much of a concern for him as it is for some of the other riders coming from the Tour, because like you said, he didn't ride GC at the tour," Kieran Wood added. "So he would have had a little bit of a lesser first couple of weeks maybe, and then obviously the last week he was on the attack. But with Carapaz, I can easily see him getting the podium at the Vuelta".
The EF Education-EasyPost rider perhaps lacks some of the top support that some of his rivals will have in the mountains, which may make it difficult to execute the aggressive tactics that he is known for. The Ecuadorian recently finished eighth at the Tour de France, flying in the final week where he won two stages and sealed the KOM classification win.
"In terms of pure climbers, I think he's arguably the next best, or maybe alongside Gall, in terms of just pure climbing ability. With him, it is can he do it day after day, but I am backing him to get the podium".
Can Richard Carapaz finish on the podium of the 2026 Vuelta a España?
Is Mattias Skjelmose being backed up to fight for GC?
Rúben Silva questioned Lidl-Trek's lineup choices, specially having removed pure climber Carlos Verona last-minute from the team, after a stellar Tour de France.
"Skelmose is finally getting his opportunity. He's going to lead the Grand Tour, there's no ifs, there's no buts - he's the only leader". After having been removed from the 2026 Giro d'Italia where he had been previously promised a leadership, Silva put into question the German team's commitment to Skjelmose after Verona was placed in the Deutschland Tour.
"Verona was removed. I look at Lidl-Trek's lineup and they have Julian Bernard, Leonard Kamna, Patrick Konrad... These are riders that are not going to be at the level required to keep up with Skelmose when the heat really turns up".
"When UAE pushes the pace; when a very strong Decathlon pushes the pace or attack; or INEOS attack... Lidl-Trek don't have the men to back Skelmose up".
Rúben SilvaEditor-in-Chief
A founding contributor to CyclingUpToDate since its launch in January 2022, Ruben Silva has played a central role in shaping the site’s editorial direction and long-term growth. Before joining the project, he built his experience through independent blogging at Echelons Hub and by producing race previews for Ciclismo Internacional, developing a strong analytical voice rooted in daily engagement with professional cycling.
Beyond editorial work, he has been closely involved in the expansion and coordination of CyclingUpToDate’s wider network, helping establish and support sister platforms across multiple languages. This includes ongoing collaboration with CiclismoAlDia (Spanish), CiclismoAtual (Portuguese), WielrennenUpToDate (Dutch), and RadsportAktuell (German), contributing to a shared editorial vision and consistent international coverage.
He also helps oversee editorial governance across the network, setting standards for accuracy and consistency and coordinating updates or corrections when needed.
Originally from the Porto metropolitan area in Portugal, he holds a bachelor’s degree in Geography. His path into cycling journalism was shaped not through formal media training, but through independent reporting, community engagement, and sustained on-the-ground involvement in the sport.
Over the course of his career, he has conducted approximately 100 interviews across road cycling and cyclocross, ranging from one-to-one conversations and online formats to press conferences and on-site pre- and post-race coverage. His interviews include leading riders, team managers, and prominent figures within cycling media: Tadej Pogacar, Jonas Vingegaard, Mathieu van der Poel, Primoz Roglic, Wout van Aert, Joao Almeida and Tom Pidcock; managers like Patrick Lefevere and Joxean Matxin; and YouTube personality Bryan Kennedy (BKXC)...
Within 18 months of launch, he helped grow CyclingUpToDate’s English-language platform into one of the most-read cycling news websites, built entirely from the ground up. As both a professional journalist and lifelong cycling enthusiast, his focus remains on delivering accurate, timely, and well-contextualized coverage.
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- The scourge of Social Media, some of these influencers are dangerous. shame on the Vuelta for giving her the platform.slappers6624-08-2026
- Was it in 2021 that Pogačar raced some mountains with rim brakes, and other stages with discs? I'd very much say that disc brakes have won races, with faster racing because of the aerodynamics, wider tires, new wheels, and stronger and later braking (on, say, descents). It wasn't just manufacturers that pushed discs onto the peloton.RidesHills24-08-2026
- Wow, I only just saw this. It's crazy that in this day and age, we have quite literally the most incredible cyclist of all time being hassled by some nobody influencer who thinks they are the centre of the universe and that everyone should know who she is. This influencer will have their 15 minutes of fame. Pogacar will have a legacy.Pogboom24-08-2026
- The first day of the race saw Pogacar take the win in a 9-kilometer long time trial at home in Anodrra. LOL! What and where is Anodrra. And whose house is there?MajorPayne24-08-2026
- Why would any cycling fan even watch that shit?MajorPayne24-08-2026
- sprinters doesnt really count in this sense, not the issue on hand but yes they need dolllars lets hope they get it!miguel24-08-2026
- Brilliant! I love it.Cyclingsbestfan24-08-2026
- They should rather have brought Nairo Quintana to the Vuelta.Hills3324-08-2026
- he is a disaster. he had a terrible TT too. he is such a malcontent and soft rider. he is going nowhere - wasted money, wasted signing for Movistar.mij24-08-2026
- This wannabe influencer is nothing more than a female trash canine, literally.PogiSloFans24-08-2026
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