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PREVIEW | Vuelta a Espana 2023 stage 2 - 15% Alto de Montjuic to explode overall classification in thrilling finale
CyclingSunday, 27 August 2023 at 16:27
Preview. Stage 2 of the Vuelta a Espana will immediately lead the riders into hilly terrain. After a brutal and chaotic opening team time-trial, the GC riders will already come to the front and a battle is expected on the Alto de Montjuic and Barcelona finale.
Stage two will be similar to that of the 2012 stage where Philippe Gilbert and Joaquim Rodriguez blasted away from the peloton. It's a hilly day, however not overly hard. The challenges will come as the riders return to Barcelona and will face the short but explosive hilltop of the Alto de Montjuic. The stage will end right after by the Olympic stadium.
Stage 2: Mataró - Barcelona, 183.7 kilometers
There is an uphill start and by all means, the first two thirds of the day are quite hilly and later in the race it would be a day suited to a breakaway. But here it's unlikely, a red jersey will be on the line but plenty teams will seek it, the run-up to Barcelona is flat and allows for big gap cutting from the peloton, and besides the final kilometers, the run-up to Montjuic is certain
The climb is very sharp. Lately the Volta a Catalunya has returned to this vertent, it's 900 meters at 8.7% but it's gradients go as high as the double of that. It's an anaerobic effort, there won't be big splits at the summit but immediately the riders take on, with 3.7 kilometers to go until 1.5Km to go, a very fast and slightly technical descent where the gaps will grow in space (although not necessarily in time).
The race will momentarily solidify but immediately the riders hit the hilltop finale into the Olympic stadium. The gradients average 4/5%, it is not one for the sprinters even if some survive relatively close to the front, several of the climbers/puncheurs will benefit from the gradients. A late attack has quite good chances of surviving too.
Alto de Montjuic: 900 meters; 8.7%; 3.7Km to go
The Weather
Map Vuelta a Espana 2023 stage 2
The weather will not make it any easier for the riders. What is on the menu? Strong rain and wind, today was a warm-up perhaps even though it was in horrible conditions. Although daylight shouldn't be an issue this time around, the rain can be stronger. The northwestern wind will make the run-up to Barcelona even faster and tenser, but in the finale itself it shouldn't make a difference.
The Favourites
Remco Evenepoel - I don't think it's a day to attack and make differences for the red jersey favourites, but they must still have their A-game. Evenepoel does not need to attack, he's shown this year to have built the necessary sprint, and with uphill gradients he could well succeed, this isn't a day where other team's superiority will be felt.
Jumbo-Visma - The main team naturally is Jumbo-Visma. Jonas Vingegaard's form is unknown and this isn't terrain for him. Hence, there isn't likely much the team can do to put Evenepoel under pressure as only Primoz Roglic will likely need to be followed completely. However Jumbo have the riders to position, push the pace hard, and set up a possible sprint for Roglic, he has the absolute speed and the form to beat the best of the best on such a day - and he's shown that in Catalunya earlier this year.
UAE - UAE should race this defensively. Keeping both João Almeida and Juan Ayuso in the GC fight without losing time should be the goal as the day will be very treacherous and not suited to the Portuguese. Jay Vine and puncheur Finn Fisher-Black will likely be there in the end and can support if needed, the team's depth also gives it chances of surprising in the run-up to the line.
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A late attack could succeed. Realistically, I don't envision an attack going off in the climb to win the stage, simply because the two main figures I point out should be able to answer each other and anyone else. However in the descent or final kilometer the gradients are not as high and there is the chance to surprise. It's hard to get the freedom but GC specialists such as Enric Mas and Aleksandr Vlasov could give it a go. Some explosive climbers as Santiago Buitrago, Lenny Martínez, Lennard Kämna and Eddie Dunbar could try to take advantage of some sort of misunderstanding, whilst puncheurs like Romain Grégoire and Javier Romo are relative outsiders but riders in tremendous form. Oier Lazkano a rouleur who can take a win too if he gets a gap.
There are a few puncheurs or riders who can benefit from a very hard race but a regrouping towards the finale. With the presence of riders such as Roglic and Evenepoel that becomes hard, but not impossible. Sergio Higuita, Andreas Kron and Felix Engelhardt could be interesting outsiders. Some sprinters such as Bryan Coquard, Ivan García Cortina and Marijn van den Berg can also climb these steep hilltops very well and could benefit from that in the end.
Prediction Vuelta a Espana 2023 stage 2:
*** Primoz Roglic, Remco Evenepoel
** Juan Ayuso, Marijn van den Berg
* Jonas Vingegaard, Aleksandr Vlasov, Santiago Buitrago, Romain Grégoire, Bryan Coquard, Ivan García Cortina
Pick: Primoz Roglic
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