PREVIEW | Itzulia Basque Country 2025 stage 5 - Will João Almeida maintain the lead in an explosive and likely tactical finale?

From the 7th to the 12th of April, the peloton will take on Itzulia Basque Country; a race that is well known for it's course designed for climbers and puncheurs in a region full of cycling history. We preview stage 5.

Stage 5 is a tricky day to predict, a hilly day but the climbs aren't truly brutal. The overall classification can absolutely implode if someone fully devotes to attacking the race, however if this isn't the case we may have a tactical finale or even reduced bunch sprint - if not a breakaway - to decide the outcome of the day.

The ascent to Zalobante will be under the spotlight, being 4.9 kilometers long at 6.4% and ending with 14 kilometers to go. The first half of this climb averages almost 10% and can be used to make the difference. Regardless, the peloton will lose men, and it's possible that over the less steep second half there will be attacks and attempts to go for a solo win, not based on strength but instead on tactics.

However this can be played in many different ways, as with 3 kilometers to go there is a 700-meter ramp that averages 6% where more attacks can happen. A finale that is open to many kinds of riders and can be quite interesting, even bringing forward some surprises.

This should be a very tactical stage. The win may be taken by the breakaway as we've seen today there were plenty of excellent riders already with time lost and plenty freedom. Quick-Step and Bahrain chased on, they won't do it again... Cofidis may, but I don't see any other team wanting to fully commit to a chase and in this terrain organizing a good one will be hard already.

There should be a GC battle, but the climbs aren't hard enough for someone like Lipowitz or Mas to make the difference, I don't expect much control from these teams either. The finale should be very interesting, it is likely going to be tactical, and perhaps UAE and Almeida will want to push the pace to the limit from the bottom of the climb to create differences and perhaps avoid then being attacked from all sides. However which riders can survive the climb is a question that depends on how they race the stage - the likes of Nys, Zingle and Alaphilippe could stand great chances if the pace isn't too high and a reduced group sprint comes to be.

*** Alex Aranburu, Max Schachmann
** Clément Champoussin, Mattias Skjelmose, Romain Grégoire
* Thibau Nys, João Almeida, Florian Lipowitz, Clément Berthet, Oscar Onley, Ilan van Wilder, Enric Mas, Wilco Kelderman, Santiago Buitrago, Maxim van Gils, Ben Healy, Axel Zingle, Marc Hirschi, Julian Alaphilippe, Simone Velasco

Pick: Ben Healy

How: Breakaway win.