“Paul Seixas’ climbing numbers are already better than Jonas Vingegaard’s” – Expert names 19-year-old as Tadej Pogacar’s closest challenger

Paul Seixas’ rapid rise has already reshaped the Liège-Bastogne-Liège narrative, and according to Benji Naesen, the Frenchman now sits firmly among the leading contenders for Sunday’s Monument.

In fact, Naesen’s assessment goes further than simply placing the 19-year-old in the conversation. Based on his recent climbing performances, he sees Seixas as second only to Tadej Pogacar on the climbs, moving ahead of Remco Evenepoel in the current hierarchy.

The expectation of a three-way battle between Pogacar, Evenepoel and Seixas has grown in recent days. Naesen is not convinced that narrative will play out in practice. Instead, he sees a clearer separation that favours Seixas. “He can definitely finish third. But I put Pogacar and Seixas above him,” he said of Evenepoel’s chances to Het Nieuwsblad, casting doubt on the Belgian’s ability to match the very best on the decisive climbs.

That view is rooted in what Naesen describes as a prolonged lack of top-level climbing performances from Evenepoel. “Romandie, Dauphiné, Hautacam in last year’s Tour, and this year’s UAE Tour: he was dropped everywhere.”

While those examples come from longer climbs, the concern extends to shorter efforts as well. “Even on the shorter climbs, I can’t remember a performance in the past year that really made me sit up and take notice.”

Evenepoel’s victory at the Amstel Gold Race might suggest a return to form, but Naesen remains unconvinced that it signals readiness to challenge Pogacar in Liège.

“He didn’t win solo there either. He tried to drop Skjelmose a few times, but couldn’t manage it,” he said. “That’s what I mean: over the past year and a half, I haven’t seen what I need to see to say that Remco will be able to follow Pogacar on the way to Liège.”

That distinction matters. Liège-Bastogne-Liège demands repeated efforts on steep climbs and the ability to respond when the race accelerates. Naesen does not yet see that in Evenepoel’s recent performances.

Where Evenepoel raises doubts, Seixas inspires confidence. The Frenchman’s second place at Strade Bianche behind Pogacar showed he could operate at the same level, while his dominant victory at the Tour of the Basque Country confirmed that consistency across a stage race.

His performance at Flèche Wallonne, where he became the youngest winner in the race’s history, has only strengthened that case. “He may only be nineteen, but his climbing numbers are already better than Vingegaard’s,” Naesen said, underlining how highly he rates the young rider’s potential. “In short, Seixas is the second-best climber at the start.”

One of the remaining questions around Seixas has been whether he can handle the demands of a Monument like Liège-Bastogne-Liège, particularly over the final hour where the race is often decided.

Evenepoel himself has cast doubt on that, suggesting the step up to nearly 260 kilometres could expose the 19-year-old late in the race. Naesen, however, sees it differently. He pointed to Seixas’ seventh place at Il Lombardia last year, another Monument of around 250 kilometres, as evidence that the distance will not be a limiting factor. “That’s also a Monument of around 250 kilometres. And let’s be honest: this Seixas is much better than the one from the end of last year.”

Even with Seixas’ rise, the broader picture remains unchanged. Pogacar enters Liège-Bastogne-Liège as the reference point, with rivals measured against his ability to decide races on the decisive climbs.

Naesen’s analysis reframes the battle behind him. Rather than a three-way fight, it suggests a hierarchy. Pogacar at the top, Seixas emerging as the closest challenger, and Evenepoel needing to prove he can match that level when it matters most.

That shift may ultimately define how Sunday’s race unfolds.