
The first rest day of the 2025 Tour de France has arrived,
and with ten stages in the books, the outlines of the race are becoming
clearer. One of the sharpest contrasts so far is the gulf between UAE Team
Emirates - XRG and Team Visma | Lease a Bike when it comes to depth in the
mountains. For all of Tadej Pogacar’s brilliance, and his 1:17 lead over Jonas
Vingegaard, mostly thanks to the Dane’s sub-par time trial in Caen, it’s the
support squads that are beginning to tell a different story.
The loss of Joao Almeida has exposed just how thin UAE are
behind their star. Adam Yates has stepped up again as the most reliable
lieutenant, and Marc Soler remains dependable, but beyond that, the cupboard
looks worryingly bare. Pavel Sivakov is struggling, Tim Wellens is not a
high-mountain specialist, and it’s hard to ignore the glaring absence of Isaac
del Toro.
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Leaving the Mexican climber off the Tour squad was a
decision that may already be haunting UAE.
Del Toro emerged as one of the revelations of the 2025 Giro
d’Italia. Tasked initially with supporting Juan Ayuso and Adam Yates, he nearly
flipped the script and won the entire race. A mistimed effort on the Colle
delle Finestre cost him the maglia rosa, but his performance marked him as a
future Grand Tour contender, and, more relevantly, a ready-made elite domestique.
He’s already put that Giro disappointment behind him. Just
last week, Del Toro dominated the Tour of Austria, winning three stages and the
overall in emphatic style. He looked fresh, confident, and completely recovered
from the brutal racing in Italy.
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His form is undeniable. And unlike Almeida, Del Toro hadn’t
crashed or lost fitness. The idea that UAE needed to “protect” him by keeping
him away from the Tour is less compelling when you remember that both Adam and
Simon Yates rode the Giro as well, and they’re now among the most decisive
figures in France.
Simon Yates not only won the Giro, he just took a major
mountain stage at the Tour on stage 10. He’ll be the key to Vingegaard’s
support system once the Alps arrive. Meanwhile, UAE are relying on Adam Yates
and a tired Marc Soler to match Visma’s depth, a task that’s looking more and
more difficult with each summit finish.
There’s no doubting UAE’s long-term investment in Del Toro,
and giving him space to develop, away from the Tour’s spotlight, isn’t without
logic. Just think, it was only last year when Remco Evenepoel finally made his
Tour debut.
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But this Tour isn’t a long-term project. It’s a live, high
tension battle between two super teams, and so far, one of them showed up with
everything. The other left its most promising mountain asset at home.
Last year, Pogacar was supposed by Yates, Almeida and Ayuso
for the mountain stages. Yes, Ayuso was forced to go home early due to injury,
but that still left Pogacar with Almeida and Yates, who finished 4th
and 6th in the GC respectively. Yates has not yet shown himself to
be in that sort of form this year, but all will be revealed when the mountains
truly begin.
But with Vingegaard supported by Simon Yates, Jorgenson and
Kuss, all GC contenders in their own right, one imagines there will come a
point over the next 2 weeks where Pogacar may have to face the same scenario we
saw in 2022.
Del Toro’s omission might not sink Pogacar’s chances, he’s
still the strongest rider in the race, but it’s a self-inflicted handicap that
could prove costly as the race hits the Pyrenees. If UAE lose control when it
matters most, they’ll have to ask themselves if they got it wrong not in the
race, but before it even began.
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- great analysis thanks! appreciate you posting this. I didn't realize CX had a different standard for deviation. this is even more egregious it seems.mij10-11-2026
- As he isn't currently with Red Bull, I guess if he want to race for one more year he needs to find a team. He's 37 so this will be his last year I would guess, unless he wants to race for almost nothing like Froome did.awp10-11-2026
- I think some are making much ado about nothing. Even though Jonas is getting older, before his crash in the Tour, he looked like a solid 2nd all the way home. No one can really climb with Tadej until this year, Eric Mas showed himself which I think was a one off year for him and Paul Seixas has been able to be pretty close to him. Whatever stage race Jonas enters as long as Tadej is not there he is a favorite to win.awp10-11-2026
- Giro or not Giro, he won't win the Tour!MajorPayne10-11-2026
- Very true.awp10-11-2026
- Ciccone had a very strong end of season. Consistently attacking and livening up races. Hope he makes that last leap in progress and starts notching some significant wins. Great rider to watch.Occam10-11-2026
- Me too!!!!!Occam10-11-2026
- they can sign any 100 of top riders today but Pogi will win over Remco any time at the TDF unless something goes wrongabstractengineer10-11-2026
- the time for a GC rider to retire is when they cannot win stages, or have a significant level drop like from winner/podium into top 5/10 consistently. Roglic is still competitive and Froome raced even though he became pack fodder.abstractengineer10-11-2026
- He should be in a different team. It was detrimental. For them it does not matter if he does not develop. He should have gone to a team where they need him to succeed.abstractengineer10-11-2026
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