OPINION - Isaac del Toro is the favorite to win the 2026 World Championships in Montréal

Tadej Pogacar’s absence has completely changed the landscape of the World Championships in Montréal. The Slovenian was, for obvious reasons, the man who would have started above the rest, but his crash and subsequent abandonment at the Vuelta a España means he will not race again in 2026. Without him on the start line, the list of contenders has opened up dramatically.

And in this new scenario, there is one name that, in my view, should occupy the top spot: Isaac del Toro.

The Mexican arrives at the World Championships after winning the Grand Prix Cycliste de Montréal this past Sunday, on a course that is very similar to the one the riders will face on September 27. That is far from a minor detail. Del Toro won the race, and he did so by showing exceptional form and beating Paul Seixas in a one-on-one battle.

The Frenchman was the rider who launched the attack on one of the final climbs, and Del Toro was the only rider capable of responding. Once the pair went clear, the Mexican showed that he had enough left to win the decisive duel. Even putting aside the fact that Seixas was also watching other moves when he attacked, the important point is that he was subsequently unable to take a single meter back from the UAE rider.

That is one of the main reasons for placing Del Toro at the top of the list. The type of course and the climbs in Montréal appear to suit his characteristics perfectly.

There is, however, one fundamental difference compared with the Grand Prix Cycliste de Montréal: at the World Championships he will race for Mexico and will not have the same structure behind him that he had in the Canadian classic. In Montréal, he could rely on Adam Yates and Brandon McNulty, who were attacking in the final kilometers and allowed Del Toro to reach the decisive phase having been able to conserve energy.

At the World Championships, he will presumably have to deal with a much more unpredictable race and considerably less support from his national team in the final kilometers. That could prove decisive. That is why I consider Del Toro the favorite, but by no means with the overwhelming superiority Pogacar would have had if he had been on the start line. This World Championships is much more open than recent editions.

One of the biggest unknowns is what type of rider will ultimately prevail in Montréal. The course can suit riders with the characteristics of a climber-classics specialist such as Del Toro, Seixas or Remco Evenepoel, but it can also favor riders closer to the profiles of Wout van Aert or Mathieu van der Poel.

The history of the Grand Prix Cycliste de Montréal itself shows that this is not a course reserved exclusively for climbers. Its list of winners includes riders such as Peter Sagan, Michael Matthews, Greg Van Avermaet, Diego Ulissi, Tim Wellens, Simon Gerrans and Rui Costa.

That makes it difficult to say with absolute certainty which type of rider will ultimately prevail at the World Championships. What does seem clear is that many riders will have a chance of reaching the decisive phase with a realistic shot at victory. And that is where Del Toro once again emerges as one of the main references.

If Del Toro is my number one, Remco Evenepoel is the next name on the list. The Belgian arrives after winning in Quebec and showing good form, although his performance in Montreal raised some doubts. He did not feel entirely comfortable with the type of climb and later explained that this terrain does not particularly favor heavier riders like himself, Van Aert, or Van der Poel.

He also had an unusual race, including a problem after touching wheels with another rider and an angry reaction that led him to choose not to follow certain attacks. But precisely for that reason, it would be unreasonable to draw too many conclusions from a single race. Evenepoel has more than enough characteristics to fight for the gold medal.

Wout van Aert arrives after an extraordinary Vuelta a España, where he repeatedly tried to make it into breakaways, won two stages and fought for the points classification while also remaining close to the battle for the mountains jersey. His form appears beyond doubt.

The major question is what will happen with the Belgian hierarchy when the decisive moment arrives and whether Evenepoel and Van Aert will be able to work together.

Then there is Mathieu van der Poel. The Dutchman had gone a long time without racing on the road, although he has now returned to competition at the Tour de Luxembourg, where he immediately showed his form by winning the opening stage. Even so, it remains to be seen exactly how he will perform over the full World Championship distance.

In any case, it is impossible to leave him off any list of favorites. Van der Poel has had to become accustomed to racing against Pogacar, and throughout this year he has continued to remain close to the Slovenian. He lost out at Milan-San Remo and the Tour of Flanders, but he remains one of those riders capable of appearing at precisely the right moment.

Tom Pidcock did not fully convince in Québec or Montréal, but the World Championship course appears tailor-made for his characteristics. The climbs can suit him and, although I consider him a step below some of the biggest favorites, it would be a mistake to leave him out of the conversation.

Another name that has gained enormous credit after Montréal is Paul Seixas. The Frenchman was the rider who went head-to-head with Del Toro for victory in the Grand Prix Cycliste de Montréal and arrives in extraordinary form. If he can find the same legs at the World Championships, he can fight for a medal and, why not, the gold itself.

Ben Healy also deserves attention. He was highly active in Montréal and showed that he can launch attacks from distance. He lacks a finishing kick compared with some of the other contenders, but that could actually make him one of the riders capable of forcing the rest to react earlier than they would like.

Primoz Roglic will lead Slovenia following Pogacar’s withdrawal. His Vuelta a España was not a bad race, and he still has the ability to launch attacks from distance, although he no longer has quite the same punch he possessed a few years ago.

Spain will also have several cards to play. Enric Mas arrives in excellent form after the Vuelta a España, with an enormous amount of endurance after being one of the strongest riders in the race. Perhaps he does not have enough punch to settle the World Championships in the final meters, but precisely because of that, a long-range attack could be one of his best options.

There is also Juan Ayuso, who crashed in Québec and worked as a domestique for Giulio Ciccone and other riders in Montréal. The big question will be how he arrives physically at the World Championships. If he recovers his best level, he has something Mas does not possess to the same degree: a finishing kick in the final meters.

And then there is Giulio Ciccone, who we have already seen come up short against Evenepoel and who did not quite give the same impression as some of the biggest favorites. Even so, he is more than capable of fighting for a medal.

My conclusion is clear: yes, Isaac del Toro is the favorite to win the 2026 World Championships in Montréal. But being number one on a list of favorites does not mean that he has the World Championships won. Quite the opposite.

Pogacar’s absence has removed the major reference point and left a completely open race, in which Belgium can play Evenepoel and Van Aert, the Netherlands has Van der Poel, France has a Seixas in extraordinary form, and riders such as Pidcock, Roglic, Mas, Ayuso, Ciccone and other long-range attackers can completely change the race.

Del Toro has the course, the sensations he showed in Montréal and the ability he demonstrated to respond to Seixas’ attack and then win the one-on-one battle in his favor. His biggest problem will be something else: this time he will not have a team behind him capable of allowing him to conserve energy until the final climbs.

That is why the World Championships will be a completely different test. And precisely for that reason, it is so interesting. If Del Toro manages to reach the decisive phase again with the legs he showed in Montréal, he will be the rider everyone has to watch.

So for me, today, Isaac del Toro is the number one favorite to wear the rainbow jersey in Montréal.