“It will probably be over by Stage 4” – Johan Bruyneel predicts Tadej Pogacar will settle 2026 Vuelta GC battle early
Cycling
Johan Bruyneel believes Tadej Pogacar could effectively decide the 2026 Vuelta a Espana before the end of its opening week, with the former team director predicting the Slovenian’s rivals may already be fighting for second place after the explosive mountain stage in Andorra. Despite a field including four-time champion Primoz Roglic, Richard Carapaz, Felix Gall, Oscar Onley and Enric Mas, Bruyneel sees little prospect of anyone matching the UAE Team Emirates – XRG leader over three weeks.
Speaking alongside cycling analyst Spencer Martin on The Move, Bruyneel identified the 104.8-kilometre Stage 4 around Andorra la Vella as the moment Pogacar could take decisive control.
“It will probably be over by Stage 4,” the Belgian predicted.
The stage features the Port d’Envalira, Collada de Beixalis, Col de Ordino and La Comella before a fast descent into Andorra la Vella, giving Pogacar repeated opportunities to attack just three days after the opening time trial in Monaco.
Pogacar turns the Vuelta into a fight for second
For Bruyneel, Pogacar’s participation fundamentally changes the shape of a race the Slovenian has not ridden since finishing third on his Grand Tour debut in 2019. “Having him on the start line makes it, once again, a race for second place,” Bruyneel said. “There is no way Pogacar loses this race unless he crashes or gets sick.”
Pogacar won three mountain stages during that first Vuelta appearance, finishing behind Roglic and Alejandro Valverde. He returns seven years later as a five-time Tour de France winner seeking the only Grand Tour title missing from his collection. “Imagine how much he has improved,” Bruyneel added.
Martin expects Pogacar to exploit the early climbing opportunities rather than wait until the second half of the race, particularly with the World Championships also featuring in his plans. “Personally, I think he is going to go out and try to win this race as early as possible,” he said.
The opening 9.4-kilometre time trial in Monaco provides an immediate chance to take time on several climbing specialists, while the mountain stages that follow offer further opportunities to establish an advantage before the first rest day.
Tadej Pogacar speaking to the media at the pre-2026 Vuelta a España press conference
Roglic’s interrupted preparation opens up podium battle
Roglic remains the most accomplished Vuelta rider in the field, having won the race four times, but his build-up was disrupted after he was hit by a car while training.
Bruyneel believes the combination of Pogacar’s presence and Roglic’s uncertain condition has transformed how the Red Bull – BORA – hansgrohe leader is viewed before the start. “Here we have a rider who has won this race four times. And, if we are honest, we are not even giving him the slightest chance of winning it with Pogacar here,” he said. “He was hit by a car and did not have a good preparation for this race.”
Roglic’s uncertainty leaves several other riders in contention for the podium positions, with Gall arriving after finishing second at the Giro d’Italia and winning the Vuelta a Burgos.
Onley finished just five seconds behind Gall in Burgos and won the uphill finish at Valle del Sol, strengthening his credentials as he prepares to lead Netcompany INEOS. “It looks like his form is continuing to improve,” Bruyneel said of the British rider.
Carapaz also featured prominently in the discussion after winning two stages and the mountains classification at the Tour de France. “He should go for the general classification and try to finish on the podium,” Bruyneel said.
Mattias Skjelmose was another rider included among the potential challengers after his own strong Tour, although Bruyneel stopped short of suggesting that any of them could realistically threaten Pogacar for the overall victory.
Enric Mas backed despite difficult season
Mas completes Bruyneel’s group of likely top-five contenders, although his inclusion owes as much to his history at the Vuelta as to anything he has produced during an interrupted 2026 campaign.
The Movistar leader has finished on the podium four times, taking second in 2018, 2021 and 2022 before placing third in 2024. “Because it is the Vuelta a Espana and he has usually performed best at the Vuelta a Espana, Enric Mas,” Bruyneel explained.
Mas missed the 2025 edition after being diagnosed with thrombophlebitis in his left leg following the Tour de France. He underwent surgery in October and suffered another setback when a training crash disrupted his early-season preparation. His Giro d’Italia debut subsequently ended with 32nd place overall, although he finished second on Stage 11 after joining the breakaway.
More encouraging signs emerged at Burgos, where Mas finished fifth overall, 41 seconds behind Gall, and remained competitive alongside Onley, Giulio Ciccone and Giulio Pellizzari in the mountains.
He will share responsibility at Movistar with Cian Uijtdebroeks, who returns after illness forced him out of the Tour de France, giving the Spanish team two potential general classification options.
Whether any of those contenders can remain close to Pogacar beyond the opening week is another matter. “The question is when Pogacar will decide to make a decisive move,” Bruyneel said of a route featuring repeated summit finishes and 41.4 kilometres of individual time trials.
Martin pointed towards the 187.4-kilometre Stage 9 to Alto de Aitana as the latest point at which the race could effectively be settled. “By Stage 9, it is over,” he said. Bruyneel agreed, adding: “By Stage 9, everything will be decided.”
The summit finish at Alto de Aitana falls on 30 August, immediately before the Vuelta’s first rest day.
Kieran WoodDeputy Editor-in-Chief
Kieran Wood is a sports journalist based in Wales and has been active in journalism since 2022. He regularly contributes to DartsNews.com and CyclingUpToDate.com, where he covers professional cycling and darts. In cycling, his work includes liveblogs from major races, including the Tour de France, the Giro d’Italia, and La Vuelta a España, alongside race reports and analysis. He has also conducted interviews with professional riders.
His reporting spans the full racing calendar, from one-day classics to stage races, with a focus on accurate, real-time coverage and clear contextual analysis. For statistics, results, and historical context, he regularly uses resources such as ProCyclingStats. To support reporting on rider activity and training context where relevant, he also references Strava.
In his work, Kieran places strong emphasis on careful sourcing, editorial accuracy, and updating articles as new, verified information becomes available.
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- for what?frieders311-11-2026
- Blah blah blah!frieders311-11-2026
- Where Merckx just rode every single race he could and won all the time, Hinault won less often (percentage wise) because he was more judicious in what he raced. His palmares are nuts. He had amazing rivals, one to start his career and another to end it in the grand tours. His classics were solid. What sets him apart from Merckx and Pogačar are that he basically dabbled in the classics while the other two love(d) them. I used to compare Pogačar to Hinault for his grand tour record and occasional classics win, until I realized that the comparison was wrong. Pogačar loves the classics - ah, the memory of his reaction to finishing fourth in a 2 person sprint in Flanders in ‘22: utter domination in any one day race since then, even when he doesn’t win. Hinault lived for the grand tours and I don’t think anyone else will ever reach his record. 10 wins in 13 attempts? Good lord. An amazing rider. Wish there was more footage to watch.RidesHills11-11-2026
- I had no idea about that either.
santiagobenites10-11-2026 - great analysis thanks! appreciate you posting this. I didn't realize CX had a different standard for deviation. this is even more egregious it seems.mij10-11-2026
- As he isn't currently with Red Bull, I guess if he want to race for one more year he needs to find a team. He's 37 so this will be his last year I would guess, unless he wants to race for almost nothing like Froome did.awp10-11-2026
- I think some are making much ado about nothing. Even though Jonas is getting older, before his crash in the Tour, he looked like a solid 2nd all the way home. No one can really climb with Tadej until this year, Eric Mas showed himself which I think was a one off year for him and Paul Seixas has been able to be pretty close to him. Whatever stage race Jonas enters as long as Tadej is not there he is a favorite to win.awp10-11-2026
- Giro or not Giro, he won't win the Tour!MajorPayne10-11-2026
- Very true.awp10-11-2026
- Ciccone had a very strong end of season. Consistently attacking and livening up races. Hope he makes that last leap in progress and starts notching some significant wins. Great rider to watch.Occam10-11-2026
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