“The chances of him beating Pogacar are probably smaller than the other way around, but there is still a long way to go in the race. We should not assume the worst.”
Five years above the rest
Vingegaard’s place behind Pogacar is not the same as being swallowed by the wider group of podium contenders. Since 2021, no rider other than Pogacar or Vingegaard has occupied either of the top two places in Paris. Pogacar won in 2021, 2024 and 2025, while Vingegaard took back-to-back victories in 2022 and 2023. In the three editions he did not win, the Dane finished second.
That run has established a clear Tour hierarchy. Pogacar currently appears to be operating at the highest level, Vingegaard remains the only rider with a proven record of beating him across three weeks since Pogacar's Grand Tour debut at La Vuelta in 2019, and the likes of Isaac del Toro, Remco Evenepoel, Juan Ayuso, Florian Lipowitz and Paul Seixas are still trying to bridge the next gap.
Vingegaard has repeatedly shown why he sits in that middle ground between Pogacar and everyone else. He broke the Slovenian on the Col du Granon on his way to winning the 2022 Tour, then delivered another decisive defeat in 2023. Pogacar regained control of the rivalry in the following two editions, although Vingegaard still beat him at Le Lioran during the 2024 race.
The result is an awkward standard by which second place can be treated as failure simply because the rider ahead is Pogacar. “Jonas Vingegaard has now finished on the podium in the last five Tours de France and will probably do so again here,” Sorensen continued. “He has two victories and three second places. He has won a Vuelta and he has won a Giro, and people are still sitting at home feeling a little disappointed. It is completely grotesque when you consider how good he is.”
Vingegaard and Pogacar's rivalry has defined the Tour de France in the the 2020s
Le Lioran offers the next answer
The 2:42 gap created on the Tourmalet remains substantial, particularly given Pogacar’s strength throughout the opening week. Vingegaard was unable to match the decisive attack, and the UAE Team Emirates – XRG leader continued to increase his advantage after the summit.
Tuesday’s Bastille Day stage through the Massif Central now provides the next direct test. The route to Le Lioran includes several climbs and returns the race to the finish where Vingegaard defeated Pogacar two years ago.
One stage will not erase the wider pattern of the opening week, but it should offer a clearer indication of whether the Tourmalet marked a decisive separation or the beginning of another prolonged fight between the same two riders.
Pogacar currently stands above the race. Vingegaard, however, still occupies a level that none of the other contenders have been able to match for over half a decade.