Richard Carapaz is 1:20 ahead of Onley in fourth, while Mattias Skjelmose trails Omrzel by 35 seconds. A significant swing in Jerez could therefore change several positions surrounding the British rider.
A familiar discipline on an unfamiliar course
Time trialling formed Onley’s route into competitive cycling, even though he does not consider it one of his principal strengths. “I wouldn’t say I ever loved time trials, but that’s how I started cycling,” he said after Stage 17. “It’s something I know quite well. I like the whole process of it, it’s just not my strongest area.”
Stage 18 runs from El Puerto de Santa Maria to Jerez de la Frontera across a predominantly flat course containing few corners. The long, uninterrupted sections will keep riders in their aerodynamic position for much of the 32.1 kilometres.
Onley had not studied the route in detail before leaving Sevilla and planned to complete his reconnaissance on Thursday morning. “I don’t know very much about tomorrow’s course,” he admitted. “I will do a recon in the morning. I know it’s quite flat and it will be a lot of time in the position.”
His familiarity with time-trial preparation now meets a course he will learn only hours before the start. Onley must then translate that reconnaissance into a ride capable of protecting one of the narrowest classification leads at the Vuelta.
Omrzel closes in after Calar Alto breakthrough
Omrzel transformed the youth classification by winning Stage 12 at Calar Alto. The 20-year-old’s first WorldTour victory carried him into sixth overall and reduced Onley’s white jersey advantage to 30 seconds.
Their contest now moves from the mountains onto terrain capable of creating a very different separation. Onley expects the distance alone to expose meaningful differences throughout the general classification. “Any time trial causes gaps in the GC, and with 32 kilometres I think there can be some big gaps between riders,” he said.
Omrzel needs 31 seconds to take the white jersey outright. Skjelmose begins only 35 seconds behind the Slovenian, with Cristian Rodriguez and Clement Berthet also close enough to profit from a major setback by either young rider.
Onley can also look ahead rather than exclusively behind. Gaining 1:20 on Carapaz would move him into fourth overall, although the final podium remains 3:34 away through Roglic.
The time trial will not settle the Vuelta, with summit finishes at Penas Blancas and Collado de Aguacil still to come. It will determine whether Onley enters those mountains defending fifth place and white, chasing back towards them, or looking further up the standings.