"He'll eventually find his redemption" - Fabio Aru backs Primoz Roglic to have a successful Vuelta
Cycling
The 2026 Vuelta a Espana will kick off in just a bit and there is no bigger favourite for overall victory than Tadej Pogacar. The world champion has hardly shown any weakness throughout this season, and it's not expected he would do so at the Spanish Grand Tour either. But 2015 champion Fabio Aru believes he'll find many ambitious challengers for the red jersey.
Never doubt Roglic!
One obvious names has to come up almost immediately; the four-time winner Primoz Roglic. The 36-year-old had anything but smooth run-up to the race including a collision with a car which resulted in severe bruises. But Pogacar's older compatriot put himself together just in time for the Vuelta and is ready to compete.
"Certainly," Aru said in an interview for bici.pro, "Primoz hasn't had an easy ride. But he's still Roglic, a rider capable of winning this race four times. Not only has his build-up been less than optimal, but he's not even coming off his best year yet."
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Aru is confident Roglic won't end the race empty-handed: "I think he'll eventually find his redemption. At least, that's what I hope. He has the experience to do well... I'm pretty sure of it. Of course, he'll succeed if he has the legs, because the Vuelta is a demanding race."
Whether Roglic can compete for a result in the general classification should become clear in the first few stages, but one former Vuelta champion won't contest general classification with almost certainty; Sepp Kuss.
Primoz Roglic at the 2026 Tour de Suisse
"His presence is indeed curious. Kuss has proven he can win it, and if I remember correctly, precisely when he did all three Grand Tours. But given how he's getting there, given how things have changed a bit since Visma, I see him more focused on the stages."
Considering the incredible quality of Kuss to compete consistently across three weeks at a Grand Tour, it wouldn't be a surprise if he wound up somewhere in the GC without even trying for it; after all he was 13th at both Giro d'Italia and Tour de France this season.
Deal of the year in the making?
Among the many other candidates, one other rider in particular caught Aru's eye; the 23-year-old Oscar Onley. After his 4th place at the 2025 Tour de France, Netcompany INEOS were willing to pay considerable amount to free the young Brit from his contract at Picnic PostNL, hoping they might find their new GC leader.
Oscar Onley at 2026 Tour Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes
So far, the 2026 season has not been kind to Onley though. After a strong start to new season with 4th overall at Volta ao Algarve, Onley faced two setbacks and was only able to bounce back to his best level at Vuelta a Burgos where he claimed 2nd place behind another Vuelta podium contender Felix Gall.
"Onley," says Aru, "could be the real surprise of this Vuelta. The most likely outsider. It could be his redemption race. I followed him in Burgos, a classic approach to the Vuelta, and he did very well there. He's young and wants to show off."
And of course, the list of contenders doesn't end there; Joao Almeida, Richard Carapaz, Enric Mas, Felix Gall, or Mattias Skjelmose all have their eyes set on a potential podium. And with a tough race ahead, a lot can happen. Aru highlights that not even Pogacar can afford to grow too confident in his own victory too early.
"The Vuelta is the last Grand Tour of the season, we've become accustomed to a top-level field, and there are many riders looking to redeem themselves. The route is extremely tough. There are two stages with over 5,000 meters of elevation gain, it will also be very hot... and nothing can be taken for granted. Cycling is not a sport that can be taken for granted... not even for Tadej Pogacar. It's a road race, and anything can happen," Aru concludes.
Ondrej ZhasilCycling Journalist
Ondřej Zhasil is a cycling journalist at CyclingUpToDate and has been part of the team since 2023. He is based in Ostrava, the third-largest city in the Czech Republic, and covers professional cycling across the main UCI competitions, including the Tour de France, the Giro d’Italia, and La Vuelta a España. A key focus of his work is startlist analysis and pre-race coverage, where he examines team selections, rider line-ups, and tactical scenarios ahead of major events.
Alongside WorldTour coverage, Ondřej has developed specific expertise in junior cycling and in racing across East Asia, including competitions in China and Japan. He also maintains a broad working knowledge of other disciplines and levels, including cyclocross, while continuing to expand his understanding of mountain bike racing.
Ondřej holds a bachelor’s degree in Mathematics and Physics, which supports his analytical, data-driven approach to performance and race analysis. In his reporting, he regularly uses ProCyclingStats for results, statistics, and historical context. He places strong emphasis on careful sourcing, editorial accuracy, and updating articles promptly when new, verified information becomes available.
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- Where Merckx just rode every single race he could and won all the time, Hinault won less often (percentage wise) because he was more judicious in what he raced. His palmares are nuts. He had amazing rivals, one to start his career and another to end it in the grand tours. His classics were solid. What sets him apart from Merckx and Pogačar are that he basically dabbled in the classics while the other two love(d) them. I used to compare Pogačar to Hinault for his grand tour record and occasional classics win, until I realized that the comparison was wrong. Pogačar loves the classics - ah, the memory of his reaction to finishing fourth in a 2 person sprint in Flanders in ‘22: utter domination in any one day race since then, even when he doesn’t win. Hinault lived for the grand tours and I don’t think anyone else will ever reach his record. 10 wins in 13 attempts? Good lord. An amazing rider. Wish there was more footage to watch.RidesHills11-11-2026
- I had no idea about that either.
santiagobenites10-11-2026 - great analysis thanks! appreciate you posting this. I didn't realize CX had a different standard for deviation. this is even more egregious it seems.mij10-11-2026
- As he isn't currently with Red Bull, I guess if he want to race for one more year he needs to find a team. He's 37 so this will be his last year I would guess, unless he wants to race for almost nothing like Froome did.awp10-11-2026
- I think some are making much ado about nothing. Even though Jonas is getting older, before his crash in the Tour, he looked like a solid 2nd all the way home. No one can really climb with Tadej until this year, Eric Mas showed himself which I think was a one off year for him and Paul Seixas has been able to be pretty close to him. Whatever stage race Jonas enters as long as Tadej is not there he is a favorite to win.awp10-11-2026
- Giro or not Giro, he won't win the Tour!MajorPayne10-11-2026
- Very true.awp10-11-2026
- Ciccone had a very strong end of season. Consistently attacking and livening up races. Hope he makes that last leap in progress and starts notching some significant wins. Great rider to watch.Occam10-11-2026
- Me too!!!!!Occam10-11-2026
- they can sign any 100 of top riders today but Pogi will win over Remco any time at the TDF unless something goes wrongabstractengineer10-11-2026
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