ANALYSIS - Jonas Vingegaard puts in his best climbing performance of 2026; Should Tadej Pogacar worry?

Stage 16 of the Giro d'Italia was perhaps the best sign Jonas Vingegaard's season needed at this point in time. The Team Visma | Lease a Bike rider put in a stellar effort to cement his lead in Carì; but for the first time this year, he put in a performance that may actually be an argument for him to potentially challenge Tadej Pogacar this summer at the Tour de France.

Whilst enough to lead the Giro d'Italia and be the dominator of the season's first Grand Tour, the Dane's first climbing performances were far from impressive, taking into consideration past performances and those of his rivals.

According to 'Na1chaca', an X user whose power output estimates have been proven quite accurate by Vingegaard himself in the past, Vingegaard rode Blockhaus at 6:35W/Kg for 37 minutes; Pila at 6:39W/Kg for 40 minutes and now at Carì: 6.77W/Kg for 30:50 minutes.

Of course, these power outputs are not all executed in the same scenarios. The Blockhaus stage had 244 kilometers in length; the Valle d'Aosta had 133 but several categorized climbs; whilst this Tuesday's stage into Carì had only 113 kilometers on the menu. Despite this, almost 3000 meters of climbing, nowhere near an easy stage, also ridden at a strong pace all day long by Team Visma | Lease a Bike.

It was expected that Vingegaard would put out a higher power output on this climb taking into consideration it was slightly shorter, and perhaps the easiest of all three stages. However unlike the others, it already comes in the third week of the race - where fatigue has began affecting several riders.

The best climbing performance in the sports history belongs to Pogacar, when he rode Plateau de Beille at 6.98W/Kg for 39:50 minutes. Vingegaard, on that day at the 2024 Tour de France, lost almost a minute to the Slovenian. However he put out 6.85W/Kg, an eye-watering performance in which he paced for his rival for several kilometers. The 2024 Tour saw Pogacar, Vingegaard and also Remco Evenepoel at the highest level any of them has reached at the Tour de France.

These values might be unreachable this summer, but none of the riders could reach for these numbers in 2025. At last year's Tour, Pogacar rode 6.74W/Kg for 35 minutes at Hautacam; whilst at Mont Ventoux - a flat stage until the final climb - Vingegaard rode 6.52W/Kg for 54 minutes.

The 2025 numbers are those that are most accurate to be compared with, as they represent the duo's most recent battles. Vingegaard's ascent to Carì was executed in a shorter stage and following a rest day, but if the estimates are accurate, the climbing level resembled for the first time the Dane's peak form during last summer.

Tadej Pogacar will race the Tour de Suisse following his ongoing altitude camp in Sierra Nevada. The World Champion had a classics-focused spring, training the shorter and more explosive efforts whilst putting on weight in muscle that would help him win Milano-Sanremo; and come the closest he's ever been at winning Paris-Roubaix.

After his Liège-Bastogne-Liège triumph over Paul Seixas, Pogacar rode the Tour de Romandie. His admission was that he still had too much weight in Switzerland, with his climbing performances being far from his best.

On stage 1 he climbed Ovronnaz at 6.58W/Kg for 28 minutes; and the Jaunpass on stage 4 was climbed at 6.81W/Kg for 21 minutes. Arguably, Vingegaard's climbing level has been superior so far this year - but both riders should realistically reach their top level in time for the 2026 Tour.

As Visma argued on multiple occasions, Vingegaard is more prone to reaching his best level on his second Grand Tour of the season. Furthermore as we've seen in 2024, Tadej Pogacar also reached a higher level at the Tour after winning the Giro d'Italia.

Racing a Grand Tour requires much more than just individual climbing performances, however Visma is showing they still have what it takes to be a quality rival for UAE Team Emirates - XRG. As Vingegaard prepares to certainly win his first Corsa Rosa, he will also take on the Tour with less pressure than all previous years.