Tour de France podium at risk? Hautacam exposes undercooked Jonas Vingegaard: Not just slower than Tadej Pogacar — slower than six others too

Tadej Pogacar’s stunning display on Hautacam was the product of two key factors. The first is obvious: he’s the best cyclist in the world — aggressive, attacking, and always willing to put on a show. The second, equally essential element? Jonas Vingegaard simply wasn’t at the level required. And that much was clear. The Dane lost Pogacar’s wheel even before the Slovenian had launched his attack. In fact, with Jhonatan Narváez’s lead-out already ramping up the pace, Vingegaard was waving goodbye.

To his credit, he dug in. He went all-in, and for a time managed to limit the gap to around 15–20 seconds. But that gap grew steadily. By halfway up the climb, he was already over a minute behind. Given what we saw from him at the Critérium du Dauphiné, many assumed the damage would stop there. But it didn’t. And the data from the final 4.48km of Hautacam — averaging an 8% gradient — is brutal.

Because it wasn’t just Pogacar putting time into him. Vingegaard was losing ground to everyone. According to data shared by Ammattipyöräily on X, Vingegaard set only the seventh-fastest time over the final segment of the climb:

HAUTACAM
Final 4.48km | 7.99% average gradient | 358m elevation gain
Segment times:
12:38 – Tadej Pogacar (UAE Team Emirates - XRG)
12:43 – Florian Lipowitz (Red Bull - BORA - hansgrohe)
13:04 – Kévin Vauquelin (Arkéa – B&B Hotels)
13:05 – Tobias Johannessen (Uno-X Mobility)
13:18 – Oscar Onley (Team Picnic PostNL)
13:20 – Remco Evenepoel (Soudal - Quick-Step)
13:27 – Jonas Vingegaard (Team Visma | Lease a Bike)

These numbers lay bare what many suspected: Vingegaard’s poor performance in the time trial wasn’t a one-off. He hasn’t come into the 2025 Tour de France in the right condition. And given the context, perhaps that’s not so surprising.

After crashing at Paris–Nice, Vingegaard didn’t race at all until the Dauphiné. There’s been endless talk about whether Pogacar’s packed spring calendar might leave him fatigued for the Tour — but almost no scrutiny on the other extreme: is racing so little really the right approach before the Grande Boucle?

Looking at Vingegaard — and at Primoz Roglic too — the answer seems clear: probably not.