“There needs to be murder in his eyes” – Danish legend insists Jonas Vingegaard can beat Tadej Pogacar and win the Tour de France again with new mindset

Jonas Vingegaard’s 2026 Tour de France ended with a broken collarbone rather than a third yellow jersey, but Brian Holm remains adamant that the Dane can still beat Tadej Pogacar over three weeks.

Vingegaard arrived at the Tour after winning the Giro d’Italia and remains one of only two riders to have defeated Pogacar in the race since the Slovenian’s first victory in 2020.

Former professional and Eurosport Denmark expert Holm still considers him Pogacar’s leading Grand Tour rival. “There are only a handful of riders who can win a Grand Tour, and he is one of them,” Holm said. “He wins the Giro and he is still, without comparison, the second-best cyclist in the world. If he does not believe in it, then nobody can believe in anything anymore.”

Pogacar had already built a substantial advantage before Vingegaard crashed out on Stage 15. Holm nevertheless believes the gap can be closed, provided the two-time Tour winner returns with far greater aggression.

Vingegaard beat Pogacar to yellow in 2022 and 2023 before adding the Giro to his Grand Tour record in 2026. “I think the engine is still there,” Holm said. “When we see him riding and winning those WorldTour races, I still believe he can win the Tour.”

His greater concern was the manner in which Vingegaard lost time during the Tour, particularly once the road turned downhill. “There probably needs to be a little more fire in his eyes,” he said. “When you lose more than three minutes before the race has really started, when you lose 3:40, that is simply too much, especially when he loses so much time on the descent of the Tourmalet.”

Holm accepted that Pogacar had proved stronger on the climbs, but felt the difference there remained smaller than the losses Vingegaard suffered on the descents.

“It is one thing if you cannot follow uphill, but the margins before he can stay with Pogacar are so small,” he said. “When you lose more going downhill than uphill, though, it is because there is some fire missing.”

Holm believes Vingegaard’s next Tour challenge must begin with a change in mentality. “I think the engine is still there,” he said. “But it requires a completely new mindset. There needs to be murder in his eyes when he turns up.”

He compared the situation with Mark Cavendish, who returned to the highest level after a prolonged period without major results. “I do not know him personally, but from the outside it looks mental,” Holm said. “We have seen it before with Cavendish, who was written off for two years when he achieved no results. All of this about shaking a cyclist happens in the head. That is 100 per cent certain.”

Vingegaard has already shown that he can defeat Pogacar and win more than one Grand Tour. Holm believes those results still matter, but not enough on their own to overcome the standard Pogacar set again in 2026.

Holm also questioned whether Vingegaard’s long-standing environment at Team Visma | Lease a Bike is still demanding enough. “It could be that he needs a change of scenery,” he said. “Maybe everything has become a little too easy and comfortable.”

Holm does not expect Vingegaard to leave, describing Visma as almost a family for the Dane, but he was critical of the preparation around his Tour challenge.

Vingegaard’s admission that he did not know some of the mountains on the route particularly surprised him. “When you hear him say that he does not know the mountains, that is strange,” Holm said. “Someone has to drag him down there, whether he wants to or not, and make him recon every mountain he does not know. There are so many coaches and nutritionists around him, so it is their job to stay on top of him and say: ‘If you think you are going to win the Tour, you need to set aside 14 days to come down here and ride everything.’”

Simon Yates’ retirement has also left Visma needing to reinforce the climbing group around Vingegaard. “The team needs to be strengthened so that he has some support,” Holm said.

Pogacar remains the rider Vingegaard must dislodge, but Holm has not changed his view of the Dane’s physical potential. He still believes another Tour victory is possible, provided the rider who returns does so with the aggression he felt was missing in 2026.