The Slovenian comes into the time trial after losing ground in the latest mountain stages, but Pereiro does not believe that necessarily means he is a long way below the level of his best years. “I think Roglic is already at 100%,” he said.
The former Galician rider also highlighted the quality that the Red Bull – BORA – hansgrohe rider still possesses, although he pointed out that age eventually has an effect on every athlete. “Obviously, he is a rider with a huge amount of quality, but the years weigh on everyone,” he said.
The big question, therefore, is whether Enric Mas can maintain the level he has shown into the third week. “What we have to see is whether Enric is capable of maintaining this level of form, the one he has right now, or whether the final four days can become too much for him,” Pereiro explained.
“I don’t see Enric Mas losing more than a minute, a minute and ten”
The Jerez time trial will be one of the biggest tests for Enric. Historically, the Balearic rider has suffered more against the clock than Roglic, but Pereiro believes the current context is different.
The former rider even points to the history of their head-to-head time trials to support his prediction. “The historical record says Enric has never lost more than two minutes to Roglic in a 30-kilometre time trial, with Roglic at his best and Enric not being a specialist,” he recalled.
That is why, despite acknowledging that Roglic is the favourite to win the time trial, Pereiro does not believe the red jersey is in genuine danger. “I honestly don’t see the red jersey being in danger and, more than that, I don’t see him losing more than a minute, a minute and ten,” he said.
Such a scenario would leave Enric Mas with a still very significant advantage going into the final mountain stages.
Mas is closing in on a first ever Grand Tour win
The wind could be one of the key factors
Pereiro also pointed to one factor that could have a major influence over the 32 kilometres: the wind.
At the time of the
interview, conditions were beginning to change, and the former rider believes the wind direction could create differences between the two main protagonists in the general classification. “For me, the big key to this time trial could be whether the wind is a tailwind or a headwind,” he explained.
In his analysis, a headwind could favour Roglic, while tailwind conditions could be more beneficial to Enric. “If it’s a headwind, obviously that’s something in Roglic’s favour, and if it’s a tailwind, then that’s something in Enric’s favour,” he said.
Two mountain stages after Jerez
Even if Roglic were to claw back a significant amount of time, Pereiro insists the Vuelta will not be decided solely by the time trial. After Jerez there will still be two opportunities in the mountains and, so far, Enric Mas has been stronger than his main rivals whenever the road has headed uphill. “I’m really not that worried, mainly because I think that on the key mountain days, Enric has been stronger,” he said.
The Tour de France winner points out that this superiority has not been limited to one stage, but has been a constant through virtually the entire race. “Since practically the first week, he has hardly given away any seconds at any point in the race,” he explained.
That is why, even if the time trial makes the leader’s situation slightly more complicated, Pereiro sees two subsequent opportunities for Mas to demonstrate his strength again. “There are two opportunities tomorrow and the day after to show that he is still the strongest,” he said.
His final prediction is emphatic: “I’m optimistic, I’m very optimistic.”
The Enric Mas who has surprised Pereiro
Beyond the numbers, Pereiro believes there has been a much deeper transformation in the Movistar Team rider. He is not only seeing an Enric Mas in excellent physical condition, but also a different rider psychologically and competitively. “What I’m seeing is an Enric who, physically, psychologically and in terms of his attitude in the race, is an Enric I no longer recognised,” he admitted.
Pereiro even acknowledges that he himself did not include Mas among his leading candidates for overall victory before the Vuelta began. “I’m the first to admit that I didn’t have him among my picks to win the Vuelta,” he confessed.
He did expect him to be capable of making the podium, given his history in the race. But the level he has shown has exceeded Pereiro’s own expectations. “He’s the rider who is almost a safe bet to put on the podium in this race, in the
Vuelta a Espana,” he explained.
The major difference is his attitude. Pereiro recalls that on previous occasions he had been critical of Enric for tending to race too conservatively.
Now he is seeing exactly the opposite. “I love this Enric. This is the Enric I was sometimes critical of for being conservative, for not taking the initiative,” he said.
“That ‘but’ has disappeared”
For Pereiro, the change can be summed up in one sentence: Enric Mas is no longer the rider followed by a “yes, but”. “Enric was always the typical one: yes, he’s good, but. That ‘but’ has disappeared,” he explained.
The reason lies in what Mas has done during this Vuelta. He has attacked from distance, tried again when his moves have been neutralised and taken responsibility for shaping the race as its leader. “We’ve seen him aggressive, we’ve seen him attacking from 11 kilometres out, we’ve seen them catch him and then he attacked again,” Pereiro recalled.
There is another element he considers particularly important: leadership. “We’ve seen a rider being the boss of the race, which was something that, at least personally, I criticised him for from time to time,” he said.
That change in attitude has completely transformed Pereiro’s perception of the Balearic rider.
“Absolutely nobody wins a Grand Tour without being the best”
The final issue put to Pereiro was the possibility of an asterisk being attached to the result because of Tadej Pogacar’s absence. His answer was emphatic: none at all. “No, no, no, not at all,” he replied.
Pereiro believes the race should be judged by what happens on the road and points out that Enric Mas had an opportunity to demonstrate his level before Pogacar abandoned. “And on top of that, we had the great luck and fortune that Pogacar crashed the following day, after Enric had shown that he was at his level,” he explained.
The Tour winner believes circumstances are an unavoidable part of cycling and Grand Tours. “Winning a Grand Tour, honestly, is very difficult. Race circumstances, someone has crashed,” he said.
That is why his conclusion is definitive: “For me, asterisks are for grammar. In professional sport, and after 21 days, I don’t think absolutely anyone wins unless they are the best.”
And right now, for Oscar Pereiro, that rider is Enric Mas. The Jerez time trial will test his lead, but the Tour winner’s analysis suggests the Balearic rider has enough of a buffer to withstand Roglic’s expected attack against the clock and reach the final stages as the leading favourite to win the 2026 Vuelta a Espana.