"In a few years, we might be talking about this day" - Traksel warns the Vuelta crash might be the breaking point in Pogacar's reign
CyclingTuesday, 01 September 2026 at 01:00
Tadej Pogacar's crash on Saturday's stage of the 2026 Vuelta a Espana was a crucial point of that race, but the aftermath of the crash could have a great importance also for the upcoming seasons.
The Slovenian did not get spared in his injuries, suffering a broken collarbone, vertebrae, and a concussion. Based on available information, neither of these should be viewed as career-threatening injuries, however the drawback could still impact the rest of Pogacar's career.
Bobbie Traksel analyzes the impact the individual injuries typically have according to data provided by ProCyclingStats:
"They say: riders who have broken their collarbone have, on average, a loss of 4 percent of their quality. Also: riders who have had a concussion have, on average, a loss of 17 percent of their quality," Traksel says on the Kop Over Kop podcast.
"And: riders with a fracture in their vertebra have a loss of 23 percent of their quality," the Dutchman continues. "The thing is, after that fall, they score 23 percent fewer points. That is, of course, super bizarre and a lot."
Tadej Pogacar following his crash on stage 8
Pogacar evaded all major injuries until now
Traksel also notes that this is pretty much a first serious injury we have seen for the Slovenian. Until now, he has been spared of most pitfalls, including the infamous 2024 Itzulia crash. It's not as though Pogacar never got hurt, but the only recorded serious injury is a broken wrist from 2023 which, in turn of events, might've cost him that year's Tour de France title.
The Dutchman supposes that this setback might bring Pogacar "down to human level", although that's hard to predict with a surgery and weeks of recovery yet to take place.
"The fact that Pogacar has had such a severe crash, while all the others have already had one, could already be a small explanation for why he was so incredibly good. But it might also say something about the medium or long term, about how Pogacar will ride in the coming years."
Traksel isn't too worried about the collarbone, which is a "classic cyclist injury". "But the vertebra and concussion... it depends on how bad that is. How will it turn out for him? We don't know. One of his qualities is that he recovers quickly, so we can have hope regarding that," the commentator clarifies.
Will it spell the end of Pogacar's reign?
In context of Pogacar's great exploits, the comparison to Eddy Merckx is made quite often. The Belgian's career was also defined by two incidents. In 1969, he suffered a broken vertebra during track derny. And after that, it is said that Merckx lost a lot of his spark - even though he had five very successful seasons after that. And the other is the infamous 1975 Tour de France incident with fans which seemed to have taken a toll on Merckx mentally.
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Now it might too early to estimate Pogacar's recovery, but Traksel points this as a possible breaking point in Slovenian's career. "It depends very much on what the injury will do to Pogacar's level. Was this the day Pogacar declines? That could very well be the case. We are all talking now about: it might possibly happen, so there is no truth in that. But it could be that in a few years, you will be talking about this day."
Ondrej ZhasilCycling Journalist
Ondřej Zhasil is a cycling journalist at CyclingUpToDate and has been part of the team since 2023. He is based in Ostrava, the third-largest city in the Czech Republic, and covers professional cycling across the main UCI competitions, including the Tour de France, the Giro d’Italia, and La Vuelta a España. A key focus of his work is startlist analysis and pre-race coverage, where he examines team selections, rider line-ups, and tactical scenarios ahead of major events.
Alongside WorldTour coverage, Ondřej has developed specific expertise in junior cycling and in racing across East Asia, including competitions in China and Japan. He also maintains a broad working knowledge of other disciplines and levels, including cyclocross, while continuing to expand his understanding of mountain bike racing.
Ondřej holds a bachelor’s degree in Mathematics and Physics, which supports his analytical, data-driven approach to performance and race analysis. In his reporting, he regularly uses ProCyclingStats for results, statistics, and historical context. He places strong emphasis on careful sourcing, editorial accuracy, and updating articles promptly when new, verified information becomes available.
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- I really hope he doesn't return this season, and takes the time to recover properly and look after himself - not feel pressured by sponsors and armchair pundits to risk his recovery and long-term health. His wins in 2026 alone are a glittering career haul for most riders, so he's got nothing to "salvage" from crashing out of La Vuelta.wrsty01-09-2026
- Feels like they are building a super team without a really top TOP-tier wunderkind GC guy in place (no offence to Onley) - perhaps this is all to tempt a certain young Frenchman?wrsty01-09-2026
- @mjj: There's also something about Pidcock and MTB that is different from Van der Poel. Pidcock raced at Novo Mesto and immediately won - he actually con jump on the bike at short notice and win! Also, he has said it's his favorite discipline in a way that Van der Poel never has.RidesHills01-09-2026
- MVDP should ride his CX bike with 700x50s instead of his MTB! Who knows? Watching his CX exploits I often wondered why I I needed an MTB with 120mm front suspension. Tom has been the premier MTB XC for a while. (disclaimer: have not seen the race yet)bike-anarkist31-08-2026
- having concussion symptoms serious enough to delay a surgery (cognitive disruption, balance issues, serious persistent headaches) would certainly qualify as a "serious concussion", which is a TBI by the way.StuffShredman31-08-2026
- Couldn't have said it better with PogiFanBoy clicks!frieders331-08-2026
- Shush... capish?PogiSloFans31-08-2026
- Who cares? He chose it to win. That’s not on anyone but Floyd.Guavaking31-08-2026
- It's a sad story. Lying and not facing the truth is like having an anvil chained to your neck. I wish him well. By coincidence I watched "The Programme." recently. Jesse Plemons play a great Landis in the film.Cyclingsbestfan31-08-2026
- It would be a powerfull team if he did sign up with Ineos. Onley's future is looking good. Carapaz and Onley would make a great climbing double act. Would it be enough though to topple Pogacar the GT king?Cyclingsbestfan31-08-2026
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