Mathieu van der Poel’s record-breaking 8th CX World Championship depends on one thing, says Belgian ex-pro: “If he feels it could jeopardise his spring…”
Cyclocross
As the cyclocross season hits full stride, the question echoing across the sport is simple: when will Mathieu van der Poel return to the mud? The reigning world champion has yet to pin on a number this winter, but according to former rider and Derailleur analyst Bart Aernouts, the answer rests entirely on one factor — the Dutchman’s own motivation.
“If he feels like it, he’ll come,” Aernouts analyses, emphasising that Van der Poel’s participation depends solely on his appetite to race. “If everything goes well in training, there’s no reason to doubt he’ll appear.”
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Balancing road ambitions with cyclocross dominance
After closing his 2025 campaign at the Mountain Bike World Championships in September — and following a well-earned holiday in the United States — Van der Poel is now back training in Spain, building towards his 2026 road season with Alpecin-Deceuninck. Yet while his early-winter plans remain under wraps, speculation continues to grow that he will eventually make his return around the festive period, as has often been the case in recent years.
Van der Poel heads into the new cyclocross campaign as the most successful rider of his generation, with seven elite world titles already to his name (2015, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2023, 2024, 2025). A victory at the upcoming World Championships in Hulst (30 January – 1 February) would make him the outright record holder in the discipline — surpassing the legendary Erik De Vlaeminck’s long-standing mark of seven.
But even with history on the line, Aernouts believes Van der Poel will take a calculated approach. “If he feels that racing cyclocross at any cost could jeopardise his spring on the road, then he’ll think twice,” he told Derailleur. “He won’t take unnecessary risks. He doesn’t reveal much about what’s going on in his head, so for now we just have to wait and see.”
“If he’s healthy, he’s the favourite”
For Aernouts, one thing remains beyond doubt: if Van der Poel does decide to race, he will instantly be the man to beat. “If he’s healthy, he remains the top favourite for the rainbow jersey,” he said.
That confidence is grounded in numbers as much as reputation. Van der Poel’s win rate in elite cyclocross sits at around 70%, a figure unmatched in modern times. Across more than 200 starts since turning professional, he’s stood on the podium in nearly nine out of ten races — a staggering level of dominance in a discipline where weather, terrain and fatigue typically breed unpredictability.
His combination of explosive acceleration, technical mastery and race intuition has redefined the limits of what’s possible in cyclocross. Whether on dry grass, frozen ruts or ankle-deep mud, Van der Poel’s ability to dictate tempo and recover instantly from mistakes continues to make him the sport’s benchmark.
Waiting for the switch to flip
Van der Poel’s decision, then, isn’t one of if but when. His selective cross schedules in recent winters have allowed him to maintain freshness for the spring classics — where he’ll aim to defend his rainbow stripes and build towards another monument season.
Whenever he chooses to start, the sight of the world champion’s white-and-rainbow-striped jersey slicing through a muddy field will once again signal the true arrival of winter in cycling. And as Aernouts suggests, once Van der Poel does line up, the outcome will be familiar: everyone else will simply be racing for second place.
Kieran WoodDeputy Editor-in-Chief
Kieran Wood is a sports journalist based in Wales and has been active in journalism since 2022. He regularly contributes to DartsNews.com and CyclingUpToDate.com, where he covers professional cycling and darts. In cycling, his work includes liveblogs from major races, including the Tour de France, the Giro d’Italia, and La Vuelta a España, alongside race reports and analysis. He has also conducted interviews with professional riders.
His reporting spans the full racing calendar, from one-day classics to stage races, with a focus on accurate, real-time coverage and clear contextual analysis. For statistics, results, and historical context, he regularly uses resources such as ProCyclingStats. To support reporting on rider activity and training context where relevant, he also references Strava.
In his work, Kieran places strong emphasis on careful sourcing, editorial accuracy, and updating articles as new, verified information becomes available.
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- Yeah, unreal.
parisbound0008-11-2026 - there needs to be space in life for pointless comments!Ketterechts08-11-2026
- That is a very lazy way of putting it but so far on this website it seems like everyone is happy to look at everything lazily, even things that annoy them intensely. All they want to do is state their feeling and position but ask most to analyse a problem or come up with solutions or improvements and you’re stunned by silence. Nobody even really knows how this all happens. It’s very simple and quick to just say the UCI did it but I bet you they didn’t, I bet you not more than 2 people were involved, more likely just 1. The UCI may be ultimately responsible but it is not their decision, this is about hierarchy, power and delegation. The fact that protest is possible also means it isn’t over and that MORE people could get involved for a thorough review which could throw up anything. It is highly likely it was a sole commissar who decided and has that power in a first round. Therein might lie the problem the UCI has to consider, is it acceptable to give so much authority to one single person when it is quite possible for them to have a natural bias or be too easily susceptible to imposed bias. Who is to say an individual in this position isn’t susceptible to collaboration with outside players with interests in the results, nations, families, teams, betting companies, etc. On the one hand we have sports where these problems have been worked on way more to reduce such problems, on the other hand we have sports with far stricter and more draconian rules not even concerning safety or obstruction that nobody really questions like false starts or stepping out of lane or zones in athletics. If cycling hastowork on itself, it would be good if protagonists (all kinds) would start doing a little more than just moaning over outcomes.Jumpyjohn08-11-2026
- Yes, so why not make comments less pointless?Jumpyjohn08-11-2026
- What a race! I didn't expect Vanthourenhout to collapse like that, and Wyseure did take the fight to Nys, but there was no doubt at the end. I also wonder what Aubin Sparfel would be capable of were he to race in the elites now. In the U23 ranks he is making good work of Giel Lejeune, who himself is among the better riders in the elites, and a top 10 contender in the big races (3rd at Kleebergcross, 8th at Berencross and 5th at Heerderstrand). In the French Cup, Sparfel is significantly better than Romain Debord (8th at Koppenbergcross and 10th at the Euros) and Rémi Lelandais (12th at Koppenbergcross and 19th at the Euros).
Rafionain-Glas08-11-2026 - There really was nothing in it. Schreiber was so much faster, and Brand was fighting to stay in the wheel in the sprint. Schreiber did move a bit, but to say she closed the door doesn't make sense because Brand couldn't enter it anyway, abd she wasn't impeded.Rafionain-Glas08-11-2026
- He should have been allowed to go to Movistar. Right now both arent a good fit for each other and are just wasting each other's time and effortabstractengineer08-11-2026
- Thibau Nys does exactly what Iserbyt is calling forRafionain-Glas08-11-2026
- i did not see it. was the relegation justified or an overly hard decision? and don‘t cross riders deviate from straight lines all the time? bumping into each others when they cut corners, etc … why being more strict with the rules on the finish sprint?Ketterechts08-11-2026
- seems like we are advertising the website with pointless comments…Ketterechts08-11-2026
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