Pedersen heads into the weekend as Denmark's biggest medal hope after finishing sixth at the World Championships in Montreal last Sunday. That result came after a difficult Vuelta a España had raised serious questions over his late-season form, only for the Dane to fight his way back into contention on a World Championship course he admitted did not suit him particularly well.
Now the concern is less about whether Pedersen has rediscovered his level and more about what he will have left after racing almost 400 kilometres across two countries in the space of two days.
Mads Pedersen in action at the 2026 Montreal World Championships
"The only ones who probably think it is a good idea are the supermarket chain"
Holm does not believe the unusual programme is something Pedersen himself has pushed for. "I can imagine it has something to do with Lidl. There has to be a big name there," he said. "But I don't think it is something Mads Pedersen has come up with himself, and I also don't think national coach Michael Mørkøv thinks it is a good idea."
Holm then aimed a more pointed remark at Lidl-Trek's title sponsor. "The only ones who probably think it is a good idea are the supermarket chain."
Pedersen's importance to Lidl-Trek hardly needs explaining. The 2019 world champion has become one of the defining riders of the team's current era, winning across the Classics and all three Grand Tours while extending his future with the team last year.
Münsterland, however, falls in an awkward position between those trade-team commitments and another opportunity in Danish colours.
The timing is particularly striking because Pedersen came so close to making something of a difficult World Championships only days ago. Denmark deliberately asked him to race conservatively in Montreal rather than follow every acceleration from the stronger climbers, allowing him to repeatedly work his way back as others began cancelling each other out.
By the final kilometres, Pedersen was still involved in the medal fight. He eventually crossed the line sixth, just 14 seconds behind new world champion Brandon McNulty.
A familiar gamble, but on a very different weekend
Holm can at least find precedent for Pedersen thriving with almost no recovery between races. In 2023, Pedersen completed the final stage of the Tour of Denmark before travelling to Germany and winning the Hamburg Cyclassics the following day.
"He won in Hamburg after the PostNord Danmark Rundt finished the day before," Holm recalled. "So we have to hope the age of miracles isn't over."
This time the second race is not Hamburg, and Sunday's Slovenian course leaves Pedersen with little margin for tired legs. The European Championship route finishes with five ascents of Možjanca, a 2.1-kilometre climb averaging more than 10%, where Remco Evenepoel, Primoz Roglic, Juan Ayuso and the other climbers have repeated opportunities to put the Dane under pressure.
Pedersen does not necessarily need to match them attack for attack. Montreal showed what can happen when he refuses to panic, limits the damage and lets a championship race develop around him. Sunday's final ascent also comes far enough from the finish for gaps to change again before Šenčur.
Getting over that climb close enough to the leaders would leave Pedersen with one of the strongest finishes among anybody still in contention. First, though, comes Münsterland, the overnight journey to Slovenia and a preparation Holm believes could already provide an explanation should Denmark's biggest medal hope find himself without the legs to survive when the road rises for the fifth and final time.