“It’s a breakaway that likely won’t be given much time because there will be practically no ground to claw it back,” he adds.
A stage that points to a sprint
On paper, the day looks set for the fast men. The route includes only a third-category climb, and its gradients should not trouble La Vuelta’s main sprinters.
“Only one third-category climb, the gradient is quite low, so in theory the sprinters should clear it without major issues,” Contador explains.
The analysis shifts, however, as the race approaches the finish in Lorca. The Spanish legend believes the real danger lies in the final kilometres, where the layout could create big gaps in positioning and leave some sprinters out of place when it matters most. “But be careful, because the finale is tricky, it’s really complicated,” he warns.
Seven roundabouts in the last five kilometres
Contador has zeroed in on the complexity within the final five kilometres. In that stretch, the riders will face as many as seven roundabouts, a feature that can significantly raise tension in the peloton.
“Right in the last five kilometres you have one, two, three, four, five, six, seven roundabouts,” he counts.
Although some can be taken almost straight on, the sequence of obstacles will force the sprint teams to hold prime position to avoid being boxed in or losing metres at decisive moments.
“It’s true that some they’ll take to the right or left as if it were straight,” Contador qualifies.
But the major pinch point comes just 400 metres from the line. There, a change of direction could decide who contests the win and who is completely ruled out.
Positioning will be crucial in Lorca
For Contador, that last bend is “the icing on the cake.” Given how close it is to the finish, making up ground afterwards will be almost impossible, so anyone targeting the win must hit that point perfectly placed. “The icing on the cake is above all this corner, this change of direction just 400 metres from the finish line,” he stresses.
Hence, the Spaniard issues a clear warning to the contenders: positioning will be as important as pure speed in the sprint. “It will be crucial to be among the first five if you really want to fight for the stage win here in Lorca,” Contador concludes.