ANALYSIS - Tadej Pogacar's five main rivals standing between him and Vuelta a España glory as UAE leader looks to make history
Cycling
The Vuelta a España 2026 enters its 81st edition with a favorite so clear that it forces the race to be viewed from another angle. Tadej Pogacar reaches the Monaco start as the leading candidate to pull on red in Granada and fill one of the few gaps that remain in his extraordinary palmarès.
After conquering the Giro d’Italia and the Tour de France in previous seasons and regaining control of the Grande Boucle this year, the Slovenian tackles the final grand tour on the calendar with a precise aim: add the Vuelta to his collection.
The problem for the rest is that, at least on paper, there seems to be no rider capable of matching his current level. Pogacar has turned 2026 into a season of near-total dominance and lands in Spain after winning the Tour de France with authority, finishing 6:26 ahead of the runner-up. His form, his ability to master all terrains, and the support UAE Team Emirates-XRG has built around him make the mission to dethrone him monumental.
But the Vuelta is not won by names alone. Three weeks of racing, the mountains, two time trials, and a route that this year sweeps across much of southern and eastern Spain can open unexpected scenarios.
Seasonal fatigue, crashes, or a bad day can flip the script. That is where the contenders appear who, although a step below the Tour champion, have enough arguments to challenge him for positions on GC.
Five names stand out among them: Felix Gall, Richard Carapaz, Oscar Onley, Mattias Skjelmose, and Enric Mas. Five very different profiles with a common thread: all have shown at some point that they can contest a grand tour. Some arrive with recent results that inspire optimism; others need to rediscover their best version. None looks favored to defeat Pogačar, but all can become the Slovenian’s main obstacle or, at the very least, the riders most likely to share the podium with him.
Felix Gall - Decathlon CMA CGM
The Austrian is probably the candidate with the strongest case to become Pogačar’s principal rival. Gall comes off a second place at the Giro d’Italia, only behind Jonas Vingegaard, and has just confirmed his excellent build-up by winning the Vuelta a Burgos. His season shows a particularly interesting progression: he has learned to manage efforts, stay steady over three weeks, and avoid the fluctuations that often sink other hopefuls.
Gall does not need to win the Vuelta to confirm his stature. His main goal is to be the best of the rest behind Pogačar. He is not the explosive attacker who detonates a race from far out, but a solid, consistent climber who grows more mature by the month. At the Giro he proved he can sustain a high level across a full grand tour, a key trait for a route that will reward consistency.
His preparation also inspires confidence. Since the Giro he has raced sparingly to save energy and hit the Vuelta in optimal condition. Only six days of racing since then and victory in Burgos sketch a promising picture. Beating Pogačar is another story, but if anyone can aim to finish right behind the Slovenian, Gall starts with weighty arguments.
Carapaz took victory on stage 18 of the 2026 Tour de France
Richard Carapaz - EF Education-Easypost
Few riders can turn a grand tour into a land of survival and opportunity like Richard Carapaz. The Ecuadorian has just completed an outstanding Tour de France, with two Alpine stage wins and the mountains jersey, and arrives in Spain with the experience to keep every possibility in play.
The big question is his true objective. Carapaz can target the general classification, as he did when he finished second in 2020 and fourth in 2024, or focus on raising his arms again. His recent history shows both options are entirely viable. In 2022, for example, he turned the race into a showcase for breakaways and claimed three stage wins.
Wear and tear, however, weighs against him. It is uncommon for the Ecuadorian to ride two grand tours back-to-back, and precedent advises caution. Even so, his ability to compete under pressure, attack from range, and survive in the mountains makes him a rival Pogačar cannot ignore. If he commits to the GC fight, his experience could place him among the main podium contenders.
Oscar Onley - Netcompany INEOS
At 23, Oscar Onley is one of this Vuelta’s great unknowns, but also one of its highest-ceiling names. The Briton was a revelation last season, taking fourth at the Tour de France and delivering standout rides at events like the Tour de Suisse. His move to Netcompany Ineos aimed precisely to cement him as a leader within a top-tier structure.
His 2026, however, has been shaped by bad luck. Illnesses and a heavy crash stalled his progress, although his return at the Vuelta a Burgos was a statement of intent. He finished second overall behind Gall, won a stage, and took both the mountains and points classifications. More importantly, he got his feeling back and showed he is ready again to compete at the highest level.
The Vuelta’s punchy ramps can particularly suit his attributes. Onley is a climber able to respond to accelerations and handle demanding ascents. With Laurens De Plus and Carlos Rodríguez by his side, he will also have a solid structure in the mountains. If he can keep steady over three weeks, the podium will no longer seem a pipe dream.
Mattias Skjelmose at the Tour Auvergne-Rhone-Alpes
Mattias Skjelmose - Lidl-Trek
The Dane arrives in Spain after taking sixth at the Tour de France, a result that again underlines his credentials as a Grand Tour rider. Skjelmose blends notable climbing ability with the punch to perform on explosive terrain, a mix especially valuable in a Vuelta that tends to reward aggressive racers.
In France he had to share the spotlight with Juan Ayuso, a situation that at times conditioned Lidl-Trek’s strategy. In Spain, by contrast, he will face the race without that internal dispute, which could allow him to assume a clearer leadership. His sixth place at the Tour shows he can sustain a high level for three weeks and that he is ready to contest the sharp end of a general classification.
Time trials remain one of his main question marks, although he showed notable improvement against the clock at the Tour. If he can limit losses and exploit the most explosive climbs, he has the tools to fight for the podium. He may not be the rider destined to beat Pogačar, but he is certainly one of those capable of keeping him on his toes.
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Enric Mas - Movistar Team
If there is a rider who knows the road to the Vuelta podium as few do, it is Enric Mas. The Mallorcan has six finishes inside the top six overall, including three second places and a third. His track record automatically makes any start in Spain a candidacy to take seriously, even if his current form raises more doubts than in previous years.
After third at the 2024 Vuelta, Mas went through a rough patch, with a Tour de France DNF and a modest 32nd at the Giro d’Italia. However, the recent Vuelta a Burgos offered encouraging signs: he finished fifth, 41 seconds behind Gall, showing a consistency that can matter in a much longer race.
Moreover, Movistar lines up a particularly interesting unit around him, with Cian Uijtdebroeks, Iván Romeo, Einer Rubio, Pablo Castrillo, Raúl García Pierna, and Nairo Quintana.
Mas will once again be the main reference for the Spanish outfit and knows exactly how to handle the pressure of a Vuelta. Against Pogačar he will need more than consistency, but if he finds his best version, he has the experience and quality to fight again for a place of distinction.
Javier RampeCycling Journalist
Javier Rampe is a sports analyst with more than 15 years of experience. He holds a degree in Economics from the University of Rome and a Diploma in Business Studies from the University of Cádiz. Despite coming from an academic background not particularly associated with cycling, his passion for both cycling and journalism was instilled in him from an early age. He grew up following Miguel Indurain and José María “El Chava” Jiménez. An admirer of Michael Robinson’s communication style and journalistic approach, he was inspired to pursue a degree in Journalism at the University of Buenos Aires, which he is currently completing.
He has always maintained close ties with the worlds of sport and culture, contributing from a young age to sports blogs and film and music review websites. His work has appeared in media outlets such as Cope, RAI, and Radio Con Vos. He is also the founder of the cycling-focused podcast El Contraanálisis and the football interview channel Días De Fútbol, dedicated to conversations with professional footballers.
In addition to his work at Ciclismoaldia, Javier has interviewed some of the most influential figures in modern cycling, including Alejandro Valverde and Tadej Pogačar, as well as key voices in anti-doping policy such as Alberto Yelmo, David Varillas, and Marcelo Milano. Marcos Maynar, in relation to the ‘Operación Ílex’ case, is also among the personalities he has interviewed. He enjoys conducting in-depth analysis of the cycling ecosystem and has attended major events such as Strade Bianche, the Vuelta a Andalucía, and Itzulia, as well as numerous national cyclo-cross races.
His background in economics, combined with extensive experience in marketing and corporate communications, drives his continuous study of positioning strategies and ensures that he always keeps his focus on crafting compelling and evocative headlines.
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- He has already beaten Pogi twice in the TDF. the achievement is over. He cannot beat Pogi now and he only has a few years left at the top. Win Giro and compete in the TDF, maximise palmares.abstractengineer08-11-2026
- Just looked again at the photo. Yeah I stand by that. If MS had fallen over in Brands direction I don’t even think she would have hit her. You must be a UCI race commissioner. I’ll be sure to check my sock height should I ever see you on a ride. Looks like everyone else on here sees what I see.mij08-11-2026
- I said looking at the photo it doesn’t appear she deviated. Chill out, not stating my word is the final judgement. Just commenting that based on the photo I don’t see it. And BTW the Dutch coach even said she didn’t impede her.mij08-11-2026
- Blah Blah Blah !frieders308-11-2026
- MS said she was changing gears so that caused her slight deviation. Nothing was intentional.frieders308-11-2026
- How can you use a photo post incident to judge the incident itself (which is not hard to find if you’re prepared to invest the same amount of time in searching as writing that comment? It’s harsh but technically right even though this or worse is not always sanctioned in every race. The two things that went against MS (who unfortunately for her would still have won without making her mistake) are that it was not a bunch sprint where there could have been an overlooked incident or mitigating circumstances explaining a deviation. Everything was focused on just those 2, Schreiber was riding beautifully balanced which made her sudden deviation look unnatural stroke as if it could have been in some part intentional whilst she was slowly drifting ever closer towards the barrier to a point that would have reached obstruction level. In her defence, it might have been the realisation she was heading towards that that made her react suddenly and caused the deviation involuntarily. In any case, congratulations to her for the ride of her life, in people’s minds she will be credited for it.Jumpyjohn07-11-2026
- Good boy Obviously doesn’t need that much help dealing with pressure, as some have suggested. Wiser (and humbler) than many far further along their careers. About offering him the moon, recently someone came up with an explanation of the downfall of a football great (either referring to Maradona or Portuguese Ronaldo) saying it was kind of normal after coming back from the moon, except that others, including some who actually did go to the moon like Armstrong (Neil in case anyone is too switched off to realise) didn’t go through any of the same motions after coming back. A lot of how you deal with situations has less to do with the situation than with your character.Jumpyjohn07-11-2026
- I think that they're not really used to dealing with this type of incident in a cyclocross race, and the situation has been magnified because it was a race for a championship title. It's very unfortunate that the race had to be decided in this way.
santiagobenites07-11-2026 - Seriously why do they keep doing stupid things like this. Its one thing to relegate when the placings are minor, when the action is blatant. But when it is ambiguous, why dont they at least take advice from some higher up to avoid embarrassing themselves. This is similar to the Halland goal when his teammate was clearly offside and interfered in play and VAR gave them the goal. if you dont have evidence you cannot convict. Even for doping they have these rulesabstractengineer07-11-2026
- So all those who went to watch, including all from abroad, waled there, spent nothing? Most places hosting events of the sort manage to make it worthwhile. If it was so obviously fruitless, don’t you think by now they’d have run out of hosting candidates? Why do you think the Tour can command such high prices for departure and arrival locations? If it didn’t bring anything locally they’d have to pay to get authorisation to use cities.Jumpyjohn07-11-2026
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