ANALYSIS - Tadej Pogacar's five main rivals standing between him and Vuelta a España glory as UAE leader looks to make history
CyclingWednesday, 19 August 2026 at 12:15
The Vuelta a España 2026 enters its 81st edition with a favorite so clear that it forces the race to be viewed from another angle. Tadej Pogacar reaches the Monaco start as the leading candidate to pull on red in Granada and fill one of the few gaps that remain in his extraordinary palmarès.
After conquering the Giro d’Italia and the Tour de France in previous seasons and regaining control of the Grande Boucle this year, the Slovenian tackles the final grand tour on the calendar with a precise aim: add the Vuelta to his collection.
The problem for the rest is that, at least on paper, there seems to be no rider capable of matching his current level. Pogacar has turned 2026 into a season of near-total dominance and lands in Spain after winning the Tour de France with authority, finishing 6:26 ahead of the runner-up. His form, his ability to master all terrains, and the support UAE Team Emirates-XRG has built around him make the mission to dethrone him monumental.
But the Vuelta is not won by names alone. Three weeks of racing, the mountains, two time trials, and a route that this year sweeps across much of southern and eastern Spain can open unexpected scenarios.
Seasonal fatigue, crashes, or a bad day can flip the script. That is where the contenders appear who, although a step below the Tour champion, have enough arguments to challenge him for positions on GC.
Five names stand out among them: Felix Gall, Richard Carapaz, Oscar Onley, Mattias Skjelmose, and Enric Mas. Five very different profiles with a common thread: all have shown at some point that they can contest a grand tour. Some arrive with recent results that inspire optimism; others need to rediscover their best version. None looks favored to defeat Pogačar, but all can become the Slovenian’s main obstacle or, at the very least, the riders most likely to share the podium with him.
Felix Gall - Decathlon CMA CGM
The Austrian is probably the candidate with the strongest case to become Pogačar’s principal rival. Gall comes off a second place at the Giro d’Italia, only behind Jonas Vingegaard, and has just confirmed his excellent build-up by winning the Vuelta a Burgos. His season shows a particularly interesting progression: he has learned to manage efforts, stay steady over three weeks, and avoid the fluctuations that often sink other hopefuls.
Gall does not need to win the Vuelta to confirm his stature. His main goal is to be the best of the rest behind Pogačar. He is not the explosive attacker who detonates a race from far out, but a solid, consistent climber who grows more mature by the month. At the Giro he proved he can sustain a high level across a full grand tour, a key trait for a route that will reward consistency.
His preparation also inspires confidence. Since the Giro he has raced sparingly to save energy and hit the Vuelta in optimal condition. Only six days of racing since then and victory in Burgos sketch a promising picture. Beating Pogačar is another story, but if anyone can aim to finish right behind the Slovenian, Gall starts with weighty arguments.
Carapaz took victory on stage 18 of the 2026 Tour de France
Richard Carapaz - EF Education-Easypost
Few riders can turn a grand tour into a land of survival and opportunity like Richard Carapaz. The Ecuadorian has just completed an outstanding Tour de France, with two Alpine stage wins and the mountains jersey, and arrives in Spain with the experience to keep every possibility in play.
The big question is his true objective. Carapaz can target the general classification, as he did when he finished second in 2020 and fourth in 2024, or focus on raising his arms again. His recent history shows both options are entirely viable. In 2022, for example, he turned the race into a showcase for breakaways and claimed three stage wins.
Wear and tear, however, weighs against him. It is uncommon for the Ecuadorian to ride two grand tours back-to-back, and precedent advises caution. Even so, his ability to compete under pressure, attack from range, and survive in the mountains makes him a rival Pogačar cannot ignore. If he commits to the GC fight, his experience could place him among the main podium contenders.
Oscar Onley - Netcompany INEOS
At 23, Oscar Onley is one of this Vuelta’s great unknowns, but also one of its highest-ceiling names. The Briton was a revelation last season, taking fourth at the Tour de France and delivering standout rides at events like the Tour de Suisse. His move to Netcompany Ineos aimed precisely to cement him as a leader within a top-tier structure.
His 2026, however, has been shaped by bad luck. Illnesses and a heavy crash stalled his progress, although his return at the Vuelta a Burgos was a statement of intent. He finished second overall behind Gall, won a stage, and took both the mountains and points classifications. More importantly, he got his feeling back and showed he is ready again to compete at the highest level.
The Vuelta’s punchy ramps can particularly suit his attributes. Onley is a climber able to respond to accelerations and handle demanding ascents. With Laurens De Plus and Carlos Rodríguez by his side, he will also have a solid structure in the mountains. If he can keep steady over three weeks, the podium will no longer seem a pipe dream.
Mattias Skjelmose at the Tour Auvergne-Rhone-Alpes
Mattias Skjelmose - Lidl-Trek
The Dane arrives in Spain after taking sixth at the Tour de France, a result that again underlines his credentials as a Grand Tour rider. Skjelmose blends notable climbing ability with the punch to perform on explosive terrain, a mix especially valuable in a Vuelta that tends to reward aggressive racers.
In France he had to share the spotlight with Juan Ayuso, a situation that at times conditioned Lidl-Trek’s strategy. In Spain, by contrast, he will face the race without that internal dispute, which could allow him to assume a clearer leadership. His sixth place at the Tour shows he can sustain a high level for three weeks and that he is ready to contest the sharp end of a general classification.
Time trials remain one of his main question marks, although he showed notable improvement against the clock at the Tour. If he can limit losses and exploit the most explosive climbs, he has the tools to fight for the podium. He may not be the rider destined to beat Pogačar, but he is certainly one of those capable of keeping him on his toes.
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Enric Mas - Movistar Team
If there is a rider who knows the road to the Vuelta podium as few do, it is Enric Mas. The Mallorcan has six finishes inside the top six overall, including three second places and a third. His track record automatically makes any start in Spain a candidacy to take seriously, even if his current form raises more doubts than in previous years.
After third at the 2024 Vuelta, Mas went through a rough patch, with a Tour de France DNF and a modest 32nd at the Giro d’Italia. However, the recent Vuelta a Burgos offered encouraging signs: he finished fifth, 41 seconds behind Gall, showing a consistency that can matter in a much longer race.
Moreover, Movistar lines up a particularly interesting unit around him, with Cian Uijtdebroeks, Iván Romeo, Einer Rubio, Pablo Castrillo, Raúl García Pierna, and Nairo Quintana.
Mas will once again be the main reference for the Spanish outfit and knows exactly how to handle the pressure of a Vuelta. Against Pogačar he will need more than consistency, but if he finds his best version, he has the experience and quality to fight again for a place of distinction.
Javier RampeCycling Journalist
Javier Rampe is a sports analyst with more than 15 years of experience. He holds a degree in Economics from the University of Rome and a Diploma in Business Studies from the University of Cádiz. Despite coming from an academic background not particularly associated with cycling, his passion for both cycling and journalism was instilled in him from an early age. He grew up following Miguel Indurain and José María “El Chava” Jiménez. An admirer of Michael Robinson’s communication style and journalistic approach, he was inspired to pursue a degree in Journalism at the University of Buenos Aires, which he is currently completing.
He has always maintained close ties with the worlds of sport and culture, contributing from a young age to sports blogs and film and music review websites. His work has appeared in media outlets such as Cope, RAI, and Radio Con Vos. He is also the founder of the cycling-focused podcast El Contraanálisis and the football interview channel Días De Fútbol, dedicated to conversations with professional footballers.
In addition to his work at Ciclismoaldia, Javier has interviewed some of the most influential figures in modern cycling, including Alejandro Valverde and Tadej Pogačar, as well as key voices in anti-doping policy such as Alberto Yelmo, David Varillas, and Marcelo Milano. Marcos Maynar, in relation to the ‘Operación Ílex’ case, is also among the personalities he has interviewed. He enjoys conducting in-depth analysis of the cycling ecosystem and has attended major events such as Strade Bianche, the Vuelta a Andalucía, and Itzulia, as well as numerous national cyclo-cross races.
His background in economics, combined with extensive experience in marketing and corporate communications, drives his continuous study of positioning strategies and ensures that he always keeps his focus on crafting compelling and evocative headlines.
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- We also have to read "between the lines. " One of his clauses is "greater control over his race programme." That tells me a lot. Pogi has said on many occasions, that he prefers one day races over stage races. In one day races you give it all you've got, especially if it's a famous one day race like the Monuments or other historical classics, where all the best cyclists show up. No thinkig and calculating about the race that happened yesterday and the race that will be tomorrow or the next day, like in stage races. It's that one day, when you leave your heart on the road. That's what Pogi loves. So my take is: When Pogi will win another 2 to 3 TdF it will be over for him. That's where his clause "greater control over his race programme" will be impemented. That's why he's preparing Del Toro, to take over the Giro, Tour and Vuelta races, and Pogi will concentrate only on one day races in his "old age." He will put on more muscle and weight and race most of the classics. I can hardly wait those days to come!!!PogiSloFans19-08-2026
- Yeah, exactly... you just can't handle the truth. I just don't understand why you hate His Royal Infalible Pogness???PogiSloFans19-08-2026
- One more thing they talked about: Carera did not disclose all the details, while Benson cites the possibility of discussions about copyrights and the use of Pogačar's own advertising material, used to promote his own brand and products. The Tadej Pogačar official logo is “T” and “P” - identifying him. The MET helmets already use this logo. All I can say; We are watcing a legend being "born" and his legacy will go on for decades.PogiSloFans19-08-2026
- Die for your country? What nonsense Raf! I understand that that is a quote from Wilfred Owens anti war poem but you have used it out of context here.Cyclingsbestfan19-08-2026
- seems like he has no plans to retire early. that probably ends all the potential burnout rumors after last year‘s tdf.Ketterechts19-08-2026
- What kind of argument is that?????? He went as deep for the Tour last year and still contemplated doing the Vuelta before Worlds He’s never skipped MSR for having gone deep a previous year. Please provide some back up to this claim, also about the criticism aside from some irrelevant posters like us.Jumpyjohn19-08-2026
- And yet, some people go out of their way to put him down. Don’t need to remind of some of the comments before he came out of his dry patch.Jumpyjohn19-08-2026
- Oh boy, don’t push that finger too precisely.Jumpyjohn19-08-2026
- It doesn’t matter, there are people like that in both worlds. Funny how nobody mentioned Tadej, who put « family » loyalty over country. Imagine (would be) soldiers would do the same, well, some did, were called traitors BUT they did change the course of history by prematurely ending stupid wars and practically NOBODY 20-30y later dares criticisethem the way their leaders back then did. You should represent your country, for whatever, IF you believe it’s for the RIGHT reasons and the balance of reasons for/against is ok for you PERSONALLY. Jonas is no different to Tadej in that respect, both have their reasons. Besides, as today again shows very well, NEVER confuse country and (temporary) leaders no matter how much people try to pressure you with guilt. In that respect, Belgium’s federation and all its demands on riders is a very interesting case to review.Jumpyjohn19-08-2026
- Can’t disagree there, no matter how much I appreciate Prim. At some point you have to make way for new generations, in fact, you should be helping not hindering.Jumpyjohn19-08-2026
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