OPINION | Five rivals who can win the 2026 Tour of Flanders if Tadej Pogacar does not

Tadej Pogacar has already made history this season by conquering Milano–Sanremo, one of the only two Monuments that was still missing from his palmarès. However, the Slovenian remains hungry for the great Classics, and the next one is imminent. This Sunday, 5th of April, comes the next target: the Tour des Flandres 2026 (also known as Ronde van Vlaanderen), which he has already won twice.

It is no secret that Pogacar is more motivated by winning a Monument than a Grand Tour. The current double world champion enjoys one-day racing more, and in just a few days he will be trying to secure the 12th Monument of his career. A hat-trick at the Tour des Flandres would edge him dangerously closer to Eddy Merckx in the debate over the greatest of all time.

Even as the defending champion, Tadej Pogacar knows that winning this Tour des Flandres 2026 will be no easy task. The depth of rivals heading to Belgium’s cobbled Monument is remarkable: Mathieu van der Poel, Wout van Aert, Mads Pedersen, Arnaud de Lie, Paul Magnier, Romain Gregoire, Matthew Brennan, Biniam Girmay, Christophe Laporte...

The list goes on and on. For that reason, this article picks the five headliners at the Tour des Flandres 2026 with the best chance of denying Pogacar a third crown. Who are the strongest threats to the UAE Team Emirates XRG star? These are some of the riders who can jeopardize the Slovenian's wins the most.

Obviously, the strongest rival on the list is no surprise. Mathieu van der Poel, Pogacar’s great nemesis in the Monuments, is again his main obstacle. In fact, he is also one of only two riders realistically capable of dropping him. As always, the keys will be the Oude Kwaremont and the Paterberg.

Last year, at the Tour des Flandres 2025, Pogacar launched multiple attacks. The decisive move came 19 kilometers from the line, on the final ascent of the Oude Kwaremont, where he finally managed to distance the Dutchman, Wout van Aert, Mads Pedersen, and Jasper Stuyven, who were part of the lead group at that point.

Van der Poel also animated that Tour des Flandres with several attacks, even recovering from an early crash 126 kilometers from the finish. But in 2025 he arrived after winning a Milano–Sanremo where, this year, he raised doubts by losing Pogacar’s wheel on the Poggio. The good news is he has rebounded with victory at the E3 Saxo Classic, setting the stage for a compelling duel.

In second place, Wout van Aert, who comes in superb form. The Belgian was third at Milano–Sanremo won by Pogacar, and then was the only rider able to follow Mathieu van der Poel at a De Ronde warm-up in Flanders where he himself had attacked minutes earlier. The bunch caught both with 1 kilometer to go, but the Visma | Lease a Bike leader’s sensations were excellent.

And, as noted above, Van Aert was among the very few who survived most of Pogacar’s accelerations at last year’s Tour des Flandres, matching Van der Poel deep into the finale. To cap it off, he managed to drop Pogacar himself to win stage 21 of the Tour de France 2025, in Montmartre, in a scenario quite similar to Flanders. Can he repeat it?

The level of Pogacar’s top three rivals is sky-high, with Mads Pedersen growing stronger since returning from injury. He added fourth at Milano–Sanremo and another top 10 at the E3 Saxo Classic. He was not expected to win there either, yet he was back in the fight despite nearly two months out until La Classicissima.

His quality is undeniable, as is the fact he was, alongside Van der Poel and Van Aert, among the last to yield to Pogacar at last year’s Tour des Flandres. Now that the injury is further behind him, and with time to fully regain strength, the Slovenian will surely be thinking hard about the Dane. If he cannot drop him, beating him in a reduced sprint at the finish will be very difficult.

Time for the more “outsider” threats. It is clear the main dangers to Pogacar are the three names above, but Monuments often produce an “unexpected” protagonist, and Arnaud de Lie ticks many boxes for that role.

The Belgian is coming off 4th at a Middelkerke - Wevelgem where neither Mathieu van der Poel nor Wout van Aert could seal the win. His best chance hinges on hanging on with the front group when the race splits under the big favourites’ accelerations. Failing that, he can hope for a regrouping from a group has has happened before in this race, most recently in 2024 where the podium has unexpected figures from a sprint.

With that scenario in mind, we reach the last of Pogacar’s five key rivals for the Tour des Flandres 2026. Several names could fit here: Biniam Girmay, Romain Gregoire, Soren Waerenskjold, Mauro Schmid... But it has been “a while” since we have enjoyed a Paul Magnier victory, and the Wolfpack will aim to make a dent on such a grand stage.

For Paul Magnier, the hopes mirror the two scenarios outlined for Arnaud de Lie. Moreover, Soudal Quick-Step are still chasing their first WorldTour win of the season. The Frenchman gave them two at the Volta ao Algarve, but those were 2.Pro and over a month ago. If he reaches the finish in the lead group, few will beat him in a sprint.

With Dylan van Baarle and Jasper Stuyven the team not only has a lot of experience but quality, whilst at the same time not being a lineup who can make the difference uphill. This could see them change their aims towards supporting the Frenchman survive the Flandrien roads and then go on to sprint in Oudenaarde.