“The Vuelta is already over? I’m going to say yes" - Johan Bruyneel offers blunt Tadej Pogacar verdict after opening time trial win
Cycling
Tadej Pogacar needed less than a stage to issue his first warning at the Vuelta a España 2026. The Slovenian won the 9.4-kilometre time trial in Monaco and even surprised Johan Bruyneel and Spencer Martin, the analysts from The Move.
Both expected the UAE Team Emirates-XRG rider to be among the best, but not to beat specialists like Ethan Hayter or Josh Tarling. There was also praise for Enric Mas, the Movistar Team leader, after a more than solid TT.
Bruyneel called the Slovenian champion’s ride his “move of the day” and underlined how hard it is to take a win like this after a month without racing since the Tour de France. “A technical, flat 9.5-kilometre time trial to beat specialists like Ethan Hayter and Josh Starling. Sometimes you say: ‘what are nine hundredths?’ But this is what happens with great champions. Those small gaps always appear, and Pogacar is simply perfection on a bike,” he said.
The former Belgian pro also admitted his pre-stage forecast was far less bullish. “Honestly, I expected him to be between fifth and tenth. I thought he’d lose five or ten seconds, something like that, but still be in the fight. I did not expect him to win,” he admitted.
Pogacar flawless after the Tour
Spencer Martin focused on the Slovenian’s comeback during the second half of the time trial. At the first time check, Pogacar was three seconds down on Hayter, but he clawed back the deficit on the more technical run-in.
“At the first checkpoint, after six and a half minutes, he was three seconds behind Ethan Hayter. You think there’s no way he can take back three seconds in four and a half minutes, especially because the second half was slower and more technical. But he made up a bit more than three seconds,” Martin explained.
For the American, that turnaround shows Pogacar had to take major risks. “He must have taken big risks in the final half of the course to recover that much time on Ethan Hayter, who looked completely dialled and flying on this circuit.”
Bruyneel, for his part, put the success in context and argued Pogacar’s specific Vuelta prep was probably very short. “I’m going to assume his preparation for the Vuelta has been ten days at most, ten days of more specific training. If you finish the Tour de France with the condition Pogacar had, you keep that form and do some short, intense efforts, you’re already there,” he noted.
But even that seems insufficient to explain what happened: “I can’t stress this enough: a 9.5-kilometre, flat time trial of about 11 minutes, after as busy a period as the last five weeks for him. It’s incredible. It’s crazy.”
Tadej Pogacar in the red jersey
“The Vuelta is over”
Pogacar’s performance led Bruyneel to be even more forthright about his general classification chances. After weighing the gaps from stage 1, the Belgian reached a blunt conclusion.
“We could easily say before the Vuelta started that it was already over with Pogacar on the start line. Are we going to say now, after the first stage, that the Vuelta is already over? I’m going to say yes. If he finishes the race, he’s going to win it,” he stated.
The times back him up. Pogacar put 22 seconds into Primoz Roglic, while Tobias Halland Johannessen lost 28 seconds, Mateusz Skjelmose 29, Enric Mas and Richard Carapaz 33, Felix Gall 46, and Oscar Onley 50.
Bruyneel believes Pogacar can widen those gaps much further. “There will be stages where he’ll take more than a minute or even two minutes from his closest rivals. And I think what we said in the preview holds: in the third week he might not optimise every stage to win it, but even in this first week he can win several stages.”
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Onley and Gall, the big losers
Felix Gall and Oscar Onley were singled out by both analysts as the major disappointments of stage 1. Both arrived as possible challengers to Pogacar, but they ceded 46 and 50 seconds respectively.
“Gall and Onley are the two big losers today,” Martin said. In Gall’s case, he felt the result was more predictable because “he’s not a great time trialist, especially on flat time trials.”
Onley’s performance was far more surprising. “Oscar Onley, I don’t know. Did something happen to him? Did he have a mechanical or exit a corner badly? We didn’t see it. Fifty seconds after nine and a half kilometres is a big blow,” he explained.
Bruyneel also recalled that Onley hadn’t ridden an individual time trial in competition since the Volta ao Algarve in February. Even so, he believes the result may mainly have a psychological impact.
“It’s not a disaster after three weeks. It’s more a mentally bad result. Gall maybe less so, but Onley will definitely have negative thoughts tonight about his performance,” he said.
Roglic surprises after his injury
One of the day’s big positives was Primoz Roglic. The Slovenian finished second among the GC contenders, 22 seconds behind Pogacar, a better outcome than The Move’s analysts had expected.
“Primoz Roglic, better than I thought he’d be. Being the best of the rest wasn’t what I expected from a rider who hadn’t shown good form and had been hit by a car,” Martin noted.
Bruyneel recalled the severity of Roglic’s injuries and his immense résumé: “Obviously he’s no longer the Roglic we know. And on top of that he’s starting after an injury. But let’s not forget this man has won five Grand Tours and was a very, very good time trialist at his peak. He even became Olympic time trial champion.”
Even so, Bruyneel remains unsure what will happen when the high mountains arrive. “We haven’t seen anything promising from Primoz this year. I don’t know how he’ll be on the climbs,” he admitted.
Enric Mas started the Vuelta well
Solid start for Enric Mas and Carapaz
Enric Mas and Richard Carapaz also received positive marks. Both finished 33 seconds behind Pogacar, a gap Bruyneel deems reasonable in the circumstances.
“Not bad at all for Enric Mas, just 33 seconds. It could have been much worse,” said the Belgian. Martin went even further: “I thought Mas was very good.”
The American analyst put the result in perspective: “Imagine if Tadej weren’t here. Enric Mas would have finished just 11 seconds behind Roglic. A rider who beat him when he was second at the 2021 Vuelta in a time trial. You’d say, ‘Wow, what a great ride.’”
Carapaz also emerged strengthened from the day with his 33-second deficit.
Tarling falls just short
Johan Bruyneel also admitted personal disappointment at Pogacar’s win, as he had hoped Josh Tarling could prevail. The Briton finished third, four seconds back.
“For me it’s a personal disappointment. I would have loved Josh Starling to win. I think everyone would,” he admitted.
However, Ethan Hayter slotting in between Tarling and Pogacar softened the blow: “When Ethan Hayter came in I thought, ‘Damn it.’ But I think it eases the disappointment because Pogacar beat him too.”
Bruyneel also highlighted that Tarling was the best of the pure specialists on a course that didn’t seem built for them. “When Stefan Küng finished 14 seconds down I thought it wasn’t a great route for these guys. You want to be at high speed all the time. Tarling, Wout van Aert, and Stefan Küng are riders of that profile, and he was the best of them.”
Wout van Aert after the opening time trial of the Vuelta
Wout van Aert is favorite for stage 2
Looking to stage 2, from Monaco to Monaco over 214 kilometers with more than 3,000 meters of elevation, both expect a battle among riders able to handle the difficulties and contest an uphill finale.
Bruyneel singles out Wout van Aert and Mads Pedersen. “I think they’re the two big favorites for the stage, especially because there are 3,000 meters of climbing, which is quite tough for a pure sprinter. Also, their teams can make the race hard enough to drop the fast men.”
His pick is clear: “I’m going with Wout van Aert. I’d love to see him win the stage and also take the leader’s jersey.”
Martin explained that the Belgian from Visma | Lease a Bike finished the opening stage just nine seconds behind Pogacar, so a win on day two could put him in red if the Slovenian doesn’t finish in the top three and misses intermediate sprint bonuses.
For Bruyneel, Pogacar could even allow the lead to change hands. “If I were him and his team, I’d let Visma take the jersey and have them control stage three.”
Juan LarraCycling Journalist
Juan Larra is a writer for Cyclinguptodate and editor-in-chief of Ciclismoaldia, where he has played a central role since its inception. Under his leadership, the website has become a trusted source for professional cycling coverage, offering in-depth analysis, news, and feature stories.
A sports journalist with over 20 years of experience, Juan earned his degree in Journalism from the University of Seville in 2007. He began his career covering a wide range of sports—including football, basketball, Formula 1, MotoGP, tennis, and cycling—for platforms such as the official La Liga app, Vodafone and Movistar websites, NBA Blogdebasket, and Cadena Cope, honing his skills in writing and editorial management.
In addition to his work at Ciclismoaldia, Juan contributes to Cyclinguptodate and serves as editor-in-chief for the tennis-focused site Tenisaldia. Throughout his career, he has conducted exclusive interviews with cyclists and sports figures, provided detailed analysis of competitions ranging from local Spanish races to major international events, and acted as a special correspondent at prestigious races including Paris-Roubaix, the Tour de France, and the Vuelta a España.
Juan’s combination of experience, expertise, and direct access to athletes has established him—and the platforms he leads—as authoritative voices in professional cycling.
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- It doesnt take a genius to understand that Pogi is 1 level above and Pogi is younger that Jonas, so Jonas will not win under ordinary circumstances. Pogi has to crack hard for Jonas to win. It doesn't matter whether you defend Jonas or not , facts remain facts. Jonas himself says his numbers are better than 2022/2023, so Jonas is more or less optimized and we are just see the stochastic variation due to other factors. I think he will retire along with Pedersen in WC denmarkabstractengineer13-11-2026
- They only raced each other during the 2026 Tour, but here's a few metrics to look at. Stage 3 (Granollers to Les Angles): Pogačar won the stage, finishing 2 seconds ahead of Vingegaard (2nd). Del Toro finished 24 seconds behind Stage 6 (Pau to Gavarnie-Gedre / Col du Tourmalet): Pogačar won solo, Vingegaard finished 2nd (losing 2:38), and Del Toro finished 3rd (at +2:57, finishing 19 seconds behind Vingegaard). Here, Jonas Vingegaard outclimbed Isaac del Toro by 19 seconds on the mountain stageawp13-11-2026
- your clinging to the past. Jonas was dropped by del toro many times last year and jonas never managed a climbing numers del toro did in dauphine last year -entire year. Trend is also evident theres no discussion your living in the past, its beent he same with jonas for many years now and only developing, meanwhile del toro is rising and developing greatly. This is all obvious stuff and im not even a del toro fan. No point discussing numbers or this i suspect you dont watch much now but rather think its 2022 still cause this aint hard.miguel13-11-2026
- We can go through metrics if you like, Del Toro, who I do admire and support, is not on the same level as Jonas just yet. You will see that in early 2027 if they have any crossover races. I do hope they both race the Giro. You are correct though, Jonas is getting older and will not be able to hand on much longer. I see 2027 as a good year for him. Obviously behind Tadej though.awp13-11-2026
- What wins? Are you LA operating under a pseudonym?mij13-11-2026
- My point is this - Tadej, Remco, Seixas are all the outliers. Many riders don’t hit their peak until 28. It’s way too early to write him off. And the pogi slo guy that hates him - he’s also immature. Ayuso needs time.mij13-11-2026
- Then you need to use ur eyes or head if you have cause del toro already dropped jonas two times and beat him in tdf stages already this year.. Del toro climbed(dauphine) better numbers than jonas did all year too. So ur feelings and wishful thinking doesnt amtter del toro himself has already surpassed jonas infact just facts. Its also very evident for anyone objective that Jonas is declining alot, its just the truth and super obvious.miguel13-11-2026
- None of those victories stand, so there's that,wrsty13-11-2026
- No surprise there; it is British Sycling, yes, with an S
Rafionain-Glas12-11-2026 - I like Del Toro but he's not on the level of Jonas, by a large margin.awp12-11-2026
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