If he is to win the GC, he will spend at least the majority of the rest of the race with additional media duties and pressures after stages that come with leading the race.
Further fuelling ten Dam's theory is the notable change in his demeanour during the final week of the 2025 Tour as his attacks became less frequent and his mood noticeably lower, with the team subsequently admitting that he was suffering with both fatigue and a knee injury.
Ten Dam thinks Pogacar looked worn out
"I thought Pogi looked a bit worn out," he told podcast
Live Slow Ride Fast."I saw the interview, and normally there's a really sprightly little guy sitting there, the kind you think: this guy hasn't suffered. But now he was sitting there staring blankly ahead. But his face did look a bit less fresh than on other days. It might be nitpicking, mind you, but I did notice it."
In his assessment of Visma | Lease a Bike's situation, ten Dam doesn't believe morale is high within the ranks, despite the team's public appearance projecting optimism that they can reel in Pogacar's 3:36 lead on Vingegaard.
"I don't know if I really believe that. If you've been riding around with relatively bad legs for two weeks, like Victor Campenaerts, then it is tough. And Jorgensen being sick, Armirail completely scraped... Then it is difficult to keep morale high."
"They can hardly say they lack morale, but I think it is a lot lower than the team time trial in Barcelona. Morale was really high there."
"You shouldn't put your head under the guillotine"
When it comes to beating the Slovenian, the former pro thinks there's one thing the team certainly should not do - poke the bear by setting a high tempo in an attempt to ride Pogacar off the wheel.
"You shouldn't put your head under the guillotine against your better judgment. A few years ago, Vingegaard also tried to ride hard from the bottom of a climb with Pogacar on his wheel. But then you know you'll run into that counter. You shouldn't provoke that counter now either."
However, he doesn't rule out the possibility of Pogacar reaching a breaking point, and thinks Visma should do everything they can to control the gap between the pair in case there comes a chance in the long climbs on week three.
He concluded: "A few days ago there were cracks in UAE, and then they were all dropped quickly. "And maybe you see a crack in Pogi. Just wait for that third week, for those two ascents of Alpe d'Huez. This deficit can also be turned around in a single mountain stage."